• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.241-265
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• 2023

A corporate insolvency prediction model serves as a vital tool for objectively monitoring the financial condition of companies. It enables timely warnings, facilitates responsive actions, and supports the formulation of effective management strategies to mitigate bankruptcy risks and enhance performance. Investors and financial institutions utilize default prediction models to minimize financial losses. As the interest in utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) technology for corporate insolvency prediction grows, extensive research has been conducted in this domain. However, there is an increasing demand for explainable AI models in corporate insolvency prediction, emphasizing interpretability and reliability. The SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) technique has gained significant popularity and has demonstrated strong performance in various applications. Nonetheless, it has limitations such as computational cost, processing time, and scalability concerns based on the number of variables. This study introduces a novel approach to variable selection that reduces the number of variables by averaging SHAP values from bootstrapped data subsets instead of using the entire dataset. This technique aims to improve computational efficiency while maintaining excellent predictive performance. To obtain classification results, we aim to train random forest, XGBoost, and C5.0 models using carefully selected variables with high interpretability. The classification accuracy of the ensemble model, generated through soft voting as the goal of high-performance model design, is compared with the individual models. The study leverages data from 1,698 Korean light industrial companies and employs bootstrapping to create distinct data groups. Logistic Regression is employed to calculate SHAP values for each data group, and their averages are computed to derive the final SHAP values. The proposed model enhances interpretability and aims to achieve superior predictive performance.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.46-46
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• 2021

국제사회는 1992년 기후변화협약 체결 이후 지구온도 상승을 2℃이하로 억제하는 등 기후변화 문제를 해결하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 그러나 1997년 선진국(38개국) 중심으로 2020년까지 탄소감축(교토의정서)을 선언하였음에도 불구하고, 미국, 중국 등의 감축의무 미참여로 인해 기후변화대응에 대한 한계를 노출한 바 있다. 그 이후 COP21(2015년)에서 모든 국가에 감축의무를 부여하는 신(新)기후체제를 출범함으로써 선진국뿐만 아니라 개발도상국도 2020년부터 탄소감축의무를 부담하게 되었다. 영국은 기후변화위원회의 권고에 따라 탄소중립경제(Net-Zero Economy) 실현을 위해 국가적 탄소배출 목표를 발표(2019년)하고 온실가스 배출 'Zero'를 기후변화법에 명시하여 모든 산업 인프라 및 환경에 적용시키려 한다. 전 세계에서 최초로 영국의 물산업 분야는 'Net Zero 2030 Routemap'을 발표하여 물산업분야의 탄소중립 실현을 위해 다양한 정책적 로드맵과 실행방안(시나리오)을 수립하였다. 이러한 실행방안은 국가정책에 부합하고 자국내 물기업의 탄소저감 실행계획의 수립을 지원하는데 그 목적이 있다. 구체적인 실행방안은 탄소중립 달성을 위해 비용, 효과, 기술수준 및 기간 등을 고려하여, ①수요주도형, ②기술주도형, ③자연친화주도형, 그리고 ④복합형으로 제시하고 있다. 실행시나리오에 따르면, 수요주도형은 상하수도 분야 수요관리 및 기술, 설비의 효율화를 통한 배출 저감 방안으로 2018~19년 기준, 총배출량 2.41MtCO2e에서 2030년까지 0.54MtCO2e으로 약 77%의 감소효과를 기대하고 있다. 기술주도형의 경우, 심각한 탄소배출 분야의 기술개발 및 혁신을 통해 배출량을 최소화하는 시나리오이며, 총배출량(2.41MtCO2e)을 0.10MtCO2e(약 96%)까지 감소시키기 위한 방안이다. 자연친화주도형은 물기업의 자산 및 그 외 지역에 자연친화적 환경조성을 통한 탄소상쇄방안을 중심으로 총배출량을 0.88MtCO2e(약 63%)까지 저감하는 효과를 나타낸다. 마지막으로 복합협은 시나리오별 실효성과 적용시기를 고려할 때 가장 효과적인 방안으로 약 74%의 저감효과를 나타내지만, 시기적절성, 효과성에서, 가장 최적의 방안으로 제시되고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 영국 물산업 분야의 탄소중립 정책과 실행방안 분석하고 그 시사점을 제시함으로써 국내 물산업 분야의 탄소중립을 위한 구체적 실행계획 수립에 이바지하고자 한다. 물산업 분야의 탄소중립은 기존 물산업 가치사슬 변화 등 물산업 생태계 전반의 변화를 초래할 것이며, 이러한 변화는 국내 물산업의 자본·운영시장의 비용증가에 대한 도전과 신재생에너지 기술 등 탄소 중립 기술 습득 및 새로운 일자리 창출 등 신(新)시장체계에 대한 기회가 동시에 상존한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.341-341
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• 2020

서울시는 '10년, '11년, '18년의 기록적인 호우로 인해 막대한 재산피해를 기록하였다. 이로 인해 서울시는 수재해 최소화 대책의 필요성을 인지하여 방재시설물 확충 등의 구조적 대책과 함께 침수지역 예측, 호우 영향 예보와 관련된 비구조적 대책 수립을 위해 노력하고 있다. 그 일환으로 '18년에 『서울시 강한 비구름 유입경로 및 침수위험도 예측 용역』을 수행하였으며 이를 통해 레이더 기반의 비구름 이동경로 추정 기술, 침수시나리오 기반의 침수위험지역 추정기술 등을 적용한 서울시 도시침수 예측시스템을 개발하였다. 그러나 침수피해에 선제적으로 대응하기 위해서는 실시간으로 예측강우정보를 생산하고 이를 통해 침수위험지역을 추정하는 기술이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구를 통해 예측강우정보 생산 기술 적용, 예측강우정보를 이용한 실시간 침수위험지역 추정 기술 개발을 수행하여 서울시 도시침수 예측시스템을 고도화하였다. 예측강우정보의 경우 현재 기상청에서 광역 단위 호우특보 및 읍면동 단위 동네예보를 통해 제공되고 있지만, 풍수해 업무에 적용하기에는 제한적이며, 실시간 침수위험지역 추정의 경우 침수해석모델의 모의시간, 라이센스 등의 문제로 인해 한계를 보이고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 레이더 실황강우정보를 활용한 이류모델 기반의 예측강우정보 생산 기술을 적용하여 풍수해 업무 적용이 용이하도록 하였으며, 예측강우정보를 이용한 최적 침수시나리오 추정 기술 개발을 통해 실시간 침수위험지역 추정이 가능하도록 하였다. 서울시 도시침수 예측시스템은 25개 자치구를 대상으로 강우량, 호우이동경로, 침수 정보를 제공하고 있다. 강우정보는 기상청 및 SK-TechX 기반의 10분 및 1시간 단위 AWS 관측정보, 이류모델 기반 10분 단위 레이더 예측정보, 국지예보모델 기반 1시간 단위 LDAPS 예측정보를 제공하며. 호우이동경로는 레이더 실황강우정보와 LDAPS 바람장을 이용하여 서울시 및 수도권 지역의 10분 단위 1시간 예측경로를 제공한다. 침수정보는 실시간으로 레이더 예측강우정보를 이용하여 최적의 침수시나리오를 추정하여 격자 단위 상세 침수정보와 시군구 단위 침수위험지도를 제공한다. 본 시스템을 통해 실시간 침수위험지역 확인이 가능해짐에 따라 서울시의 효율적인 풍수해 업무 지원이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.465-476
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• 2023

This study introduces the development of a precast concrete double-wall, applicable to basement construction in apartment buildings. Unlike traditional precast concrete double walls, the developed double-wall doesn't require specialized manufacturing equipment such as a lathe. The constructability of these advanced technologies was validated through a full-scale mock-up test using the precast concrete double wall. The test specimens were constructed to represent a structural wall with a thickness of 250mm. It was observed that the quality of the in-situ concrete, filled between two single panels of 110mm thickness each, was excellent. The construction efficiency of the developed double-wall system for basement construction in an apartment building was also examined. Expert interviews about installation times of precast concrete elements were conducted to evaluate the speed of the basement floor's installation. The results showed that installation of precast concrete elements, including the proposed double walls, could be completed within 20 to 29 days for a basement in an apartment building. This indicates a three-fold increase in construction efficiency compared to traditional methods relying on in-situ casting.

• Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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• v.72
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• pp.49-70
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to suggest a response and solution through Christian educational care to the crisis and change of the era of low birth rate faced by Korean society and the Korean church. This study proposes to find an alternative to the biblical aspect of pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood as God's blessing for the demographic cliff and low birth rate problem that have become a reality in Korean society and churches. Being a parent in an age of low birth rate is very difficult, but on the other hand, it gives happiness and joy. Being a parent is a blessing from God, and is the most important and valuable thing in life. However, modern society emphasizes the right and necessity to choose one's own parenthood status. In the nuclear family, the decrease in the number of children, and the development of child research, parents feel more responsibility and economic burden for raising children than ever before. Therefore, it is a reality that the number of people who delay becoming parents or voluntarily do not have children is gradually increasing. To improve the perception of becoming a parent due to a decrease in responsibility for raising children, it is necessary to shed light on marriage, pregnancy, childbirth, and childrearing from a Christian educational point of view. In addition, it is necessary to understand the recognition of being a parent and the characteristics of childbirth and rearing, and to analyze past and present value changes. This study will also discuss the causes of low birthrate and try to provide Christian educational care for childcare including solving the low birthrate problem.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.23-34
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• 2023

Nowadays, the Designated Driver Services employ dynamic pricing, which adapts in real-time based on nearby driver availability, service user volume, and current weather conditions during the user's request. The uncertain volatility is the main cause of price increases, leading to customer attrition and service refusal from driver. To make a good Designated Driver Services, development of a demand forecasting model is required. In this study, we propose developing a demand forecasting model using data from the Designated Driver Service by considering normal and peak periods, such as rush hour and rush day, as prior knowledge to enhance the model performance. We propose a new methodology called Time-Series with Conditional Probability(TSCP), which combines conditional probability and time-series models to enhance performance. Extensive experiments have been conducted with real Designated Driver Service data, and the result demonstrated that our method outperforms the existing time-series models such as SARIMA, Prophet. Therefore, our study can be considered for decision-making to facilitate proactive response in Designated Driver Services.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.553-560
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• 2023

The study is about domestic industries following the migration of hubs (innovation, manufacturing) to other countries and the hub-oriented US industries (batteries, semiconductors, electric vehicles). Additionally, the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China may have also played a role in companies moving their operations to the United States. The result of such a move could potentially include job creation in the United States, as well as increased investment in the U.S. manufacturing sector. However, it is also possible that there could be negative consequences, such as higher prices for consumers or disruptions to supply chains during the relocation process. However, such IRA, Chips Act scenario would likely also have negative consequences (Inflation in the home country) for the countries whose industries moved to the US, as they would lose jobs, investment, and possibly face economic difficulties as a result. As the result of the empirical analysis of the export scale of Korea and the United States, changes in the movement of global supply hubs are related to factors such as geopolitical price increases and consumption declines. In order to respond to these changes, this paper emphasizes the need to prevent the result of de-advantage by moving the production area of the scale.

• Resources Recycling
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.3-8
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• 2023

This study discussed production, demand, and future prospects of rubidium, which is an alkali group metal that is highly reactive to various media and requires carefulness in handling, but no significant environmental hazard of rubidium has been reported yet. Rubidium is used in various fields such as optoelectronic equipment, biomedical, and chemical industries. Because of difficulty in production as well as limited demand, the transaction price of rubidium is relatively high, but its detail information such as market status and potential growth is uncertain. However, if the mass production of versatile ultra-high-performance equipment such as quantum computers and the necessity of rubidium use in the equipment are confirmed, there is a possibility that the rubidium market will expand in the future. Rubidium is often found together with lithium, beryllium, and cesium, and may be present in granite containing minerals such as lepidolite and pollucite, as well as in seawater and industrial waste. Several technologies such as acid leaching, roasting, solvent extraction, and adsorption are used to recover rubidium. The maximum recovery efficiency of the rubidium from the sources and the processing above is generally high, but, in many practices, rubidium is not the main recovery target, and therefore the actual recovery effects should depend on presence of other valuable components or impurities, together with recovery costs, energy consumption, environmental issues, etc. In conclusion, although the current production and consumption of rubidium are limited, with consideration of the possible market fluctuations according to the emergence of large-scale demand sources, etc., further investigations by related institutions should be necessary.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5B
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• pp.547-558
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• 2008

With the advent of super cargo ship due to the explosive increase in the amount of cargo shipped via seas, some mega ports are under construction in South Korea, to accommodate the super cargo ship, and some of them already enter their final phase. To sustain the harbor tranquility, mega ports usually comprise huge vertical type breakwaters which are intrinsically vulnerable to the attack of long waves. In this rationale, we present the chamber type breakwater with a circular curtain wall - Eco-breaker 2, to alleviate the reflection of long waves and numerically investigate the hydraulic characteristics of Eco-breaker 2. As a wave driver, we use the Navier-Stokes eq., the most robust wave driver, using SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics) and LES (Large Eddy Simulation). For the verification of numerical results, we also carried out hydraulic model test. It is shown that Eco-breaker 2 can effectively alleviate the reflection of long waves with its inherited large organized eddies encompassing the water chamber and some region off the curtain wall of varying size. It is also shown that the scope and strength of large organized eddies strongly depends on the incident wave period, and the reflection coefficient can be lowered to 0.18 by tuning the size of water chamber such that resident time at the chamber is just short of the half period of incident waves. Based on these results, we present the specification of Eco-breaker 2 to boost its use on the development of water environment friendly harbor worldwide.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.6D
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• pp.839-847
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• 2008

No proper system exists for private investment projects, and efficient project management is not being achieved due to entanglements of management. Recognizing these circumstances, this paper has diagnosed the hard facts that project management organizations and systems are facing, and presented solutions to the factors that are obstructing the establishment of efficient project management system. This paper carried out focus group interviews on the experts who had participated in the Incheon International Airport Railway construction project, using the methodology of an exploratory case study. The results were systematically analyzed according to organizational behavior and causes corresponding to each of the problems were deduced. Private investment projects were divided into task environments and project organizations based on social science methodology and analyzed, and a final improvement plan for each participating organization was presented. An improvement plan was presented, and it was compared with the case study of Incheon bridge construction project, which is recognized as a model of successful project management, and its appropriateness evaluated.