• Title/Summary/Keyword: 단위모델

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Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.

Upper Boundary Line Analysis of Rice Yield Response to Meteorological Condition for Yield Prediction I. Boundary Line Analysis and Construction of Yield Prediction Model (최대경계선을 이용한 벼 수량의 기상반응분석과 수량 예측 I. 최대경계선 분석과 수량예측모형 구축)

  • 김창국;이변우;한원식
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2001
  • Boundary line method was adopted to analyze the relationships between rice yield and meteorological conditions during rice growing period. Boundary lines of yield responses to mean temperature($T_a$) and sunshine hour( $S_{h}$) and diurnal temperature range($T_r$) were well-fitted to hyperbolic functions of f($T_a$) =$$\beta$_{0t}$(1-EXP(-$$\beta$_{1t}$ $\times$ ($T_a$) ) and f( $S_{h}$)=$$\beta$_{0t}$((1-EXP($$\beta$_{1t}$$\times$ $S_{h}$)), to quadratic function of f($T_r$) =$\beta$$_{0r}$(1-($T_r$ 1r)$^2$), respectively. to take into account to, the sterility caused by low temperature during reproductive stage, cooling degree days [$T_c$ =$\Sigma$(20-$T_a$] for 30 days before heading were calculated. Boundary lines of yield responses to $T_c$ were fitted well to exponential function of f($T_c$) )=$\beta$$_{0c}$exp(-$$\beta$_{1c}$$\times$$T_c$ ). Excluding the constants of $\beta$$_{0s}$ from the boundary line functions, formed are the relative function values in the range of 0 to 1. And these were used as yield indices of the meteorological elements which indicate the degree of influence on rice yield. Assuming that the meteorological elements act multiplicatively and independently from each other, meteorological yield index (MIY) was calculated by the geometric mean of indices for each meteorological elements. MIY in each growth period showed good linear relationship with rice yield. The MIY's during 31 to 45 days after transplanting(DAT) in vegetative stage, during 30 to 16 days before heading (DBH) in reproductive stage and during 20 days after heading (DAH) in ripening stage showed greater explainablity for yield variation in each growth stage. MIY for the whole growth period was calculated by the following three methods of geometric mean of the indices for vegetative stage (MIVG), reproductive stage (HIRG) and ripening stage (HIRS). MI $Y_{I}$ was calculated by the geometric mean of meteorological indices showing the highest determination coefficient n each growth stage of rice. That is, (equation omitted) was calculated by the geometric mean of all the MIY's for all the growth periods devided into 15 to 20 days intervals from transplanting to 40 DAH. MI $Y_{III}$ was calculated by the geometric mean of MIY's for 45 days of vegetative stage (MIV $G_{0-45}$ ), 30 days of reproductive stage (MIR $G_{30-0}$) and 40 days of ripening stage (MIR $S_{0-40}$). MI $Y_{I}$, MI $Y_{II}$ and MI $Y_{III}$ showed good linear relationships with grain yield, the coefficients of determination being 0.651, 0.670 and 0.613, respectively.and 0.613, respectively.

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Effects of firm strategies on customer acquisition of Software as a Service (SaaS) providers: A mediating and moderating role of SaaS technology maturity (SaaS 기업의 차별화 및 가격전략이 고객획득성과에 미치는 영향: SaaS 기술성숙도 수준의 매개효과 및 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chae, SeongWook;Park, Sungbum
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2014
  • Firms today have sought management effectiveness and efficiency utilizing information technologies (IT). Numerous firms are outsourcing specific information systems functions to cope with their short of information resources or IT experts, or to reduce their capital cost. Recently, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) as a new type of information system has become one of the powerful outsourcing alternatives. SaaS is software deployed as a hosted and accessed over the internet. It is regarded as the idea of on-demand, pay-per-use, and utility computing and is now being applied to support the core competencies of clients in areas ranging from the individual productivity area to the vertical industry and e-commerce area. In this study, therefore, we seek to quantify the value that SaaS has on business performance by examining the relationships among firm strategies, SaaS technology maturity, and business performance of SaaS providers. We begin by drawing from prior literature on SaaS, technology maturity and firm strategy. SaaS technology maturity is classified into three different phases such as application service providing (ASP), Web-native application, and Web-service application. Firm strategies are manipulated by the low-cost strategy and differentiation strategy. Finally, we considered customer acquisition as a business performance. In this sense, specific objectives of this study are as follows. First, we examine the relationships between customer acquisition performance and both low-cost strategy and differentiation strategy of SaaS providers. Secondly, we investigate the mediating and moderating effects of SaaS technology maturity on those relationships. For this purpose, study collects data from the SaaS providers, and their line of applications registered in the database in CNK (Commerce net Korea) in Korea using a questionnaire method by the professional research institution. The unit of analysis in this study is the SBUs (strategic business unit) in the software provider. A total of 199 SBUs is used for analyzing and testing our hypotheses. With regards to the measurement of firm strategy, we take three measurement items for differentiation strategy such as the application uniqueness (referring an application aims to differentiate within just one or a small number of target industry), supply channel diversification (regarding whether SaaS vendor had diversified supply chain) as well as the number of specialized expertise and take two items for low cost strategy like subscription fee and initial set-up fee. We employ a hierarchical regression analysis technique for testing moderation effects of SaaS technology maturity and follow the Baron and Kenny's procedure for determining if firm strategies affect customer acquisition through technology maturity. Empirical results revealed that, firstly, when differentiation strategy is applied to attain business performance like customer acquisition, the effects of the strategy is moderated by the technology maturity level of SaaS providers. In other words, securing higher level of SaaS technology maturity is essential for higher business performance. For instance, given that firms implement application uniqueness or a distribution channel diversification as a differentiation strategy, they can acquire more customers when their level of SaaS technology maturity is higher rather than lower. Secondly, results indicate that pursuing differentiation strategy or low cost strategy effectively works for SaaS providers' obtaining customer, which means that continuously differentiating their service from others or making their service fee (subscription fee or initial set-up fee) lower are helpful for their business success in terms of acquiring their customers. Lastly, results show that the level of SaaS technology maturity mediates the relationships between low cost strategy and customer acquisition. That is, based on our research design, customers usually perceive the real value of the low subscription fee or initial set-up fee only through the SaaS service provide by vender and, in turn, this will affect their decision making whether subscribe or not.