• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다항판별지수

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Proposition of polytomous discrimination index and test statistics (다항판별지수와 검정통계량 제안)

  • Choi, Jin Soo;Hong, Chong Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.337-351
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    • 2016
  • There exist many real situations that statistical decision problems are classified into more than two categories. In these cases, the concordance statistics by the pair approach are mostly used. However, the expression of the classification of categories are ambiguous. Recently, the standardized evaluation data and re-expressed concordance statistics are defined and could be explained their meanings. They have still some non-specific problems for standard criteria of the statistics. Since these can be considered between result and truth categories additionally, two alternative concordance statistics might be proposed in this paper. Some advantages are founded that the proposed statistics could be discriminated all possible cases for two randomly selected categories. Moreover since the proposed statistics are represented with indicator functions, these could be transformed non-parametrically, so that these concordances are used for hypothesis testing.

Standardized polytomous discrimination index using concordance (부합성을 이용한 표준화된 다항판별지수)

  • Choi, Jin Soo;Hong, Chong Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2016
  • There are many situations that the outcome for clinical decision and credit assessment should be predicted more than two categories. Five kinds of statistics which are used the concordance are proposed and used for these polytomous problems. However, these statistics are defined without exact distinction of categories, so that we have difficulty to use both the pair and set approaches and it is hard to understand the meanings of these statistics. Hence, it is not possible to compare and analyze them. In this paper, the polytomous confusion matrix is standardized and the concordance statistic can be represented based on the confusion matrix. The five kinds of statistics by using the concordance are defined. With the methods proposed in this paper, we could not only explain their meanings but also compare and analyze these statistics. Based on various data sets, properties of these five statistics are explored and explained.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.