• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 2016

The multinomial logit model, based on random utility maximization (RUM) theory, has been the predominant model used in travel mode choice contexts. In this paper, the travel mode choice model based on random regret minimization (RRM) theory is proposed as an alternative to the RUM model, and the applicability of the RRM model is examined. The presented model is applied to the case of inter-city travel mode choice in Korea. The empirical results show that the RUM model and RRM model have parameters that are consistent with the intuition. The goodness of fit statistics in the RRM model improved compared with the results of the RUM model. Consequently, these results show the possibility of using the RRM model in the context of travel mode choice.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.147-157
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• 2013

This study developed the transit transfer mode choice model aimed Daegu transit users using multinomial logit model. Dependent variables of estimating multinomial logit model were transit transfer modes such as bus to bus, bus to subway, subway to subway, bus to others, and subway to others, and explanatory variables which affect transit transfer mode choice were sex, age, occupation, handicap, transfer area, purpose of travel and travel time. Also probability regarding explanatory variables was estimated using multinomial logit model and limit marginal analysis was carried out according to explanatory variables(cost, time). In the results, indicating goodness of fit is very reasonable as ${\rho}^2$=0.354. According to the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability, when travel time is increased, users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use subway to subway. Furthermore users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use bus to others and subway to others when travel cost is increased in the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.151-161
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• 1997

An easy Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling approach is suggested for Bayesian analysis of cumulative logit models for ordinal polytomous data. Because in the cumulative logit model the posterior conditional distributions of parameters are not given in convenient forms for random sample generation, appropriate latent variables are introduced into the model so that in the new model all the conditional distributions are given in very convenient forms for implementation of the Gibbs sampler.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.712-723
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• 2007

The objective of this paper is to search the factors inducing the visitors to revisit in Bangeo Festival of Jeju region. To get this objective, this study analyzed the data with the Multinomial Logit Model applied dependent variable to intention of revisit. As a result, 'festival program' factor is the most important thing and if the factor increases by 1 unit, the probability of 'revisit' can be increased by 5.255 times than the probability of 'no revisit'. Secondly, the next significant factors are 'festival convenience' and 'festival recognition in advance'. So the providers of the festival will intend to prepare the festival focused on the important factor proposed by this results.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.23-52
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• 2003

This study focus on unemployment and nonparticipation of youth. By dividing youth nonparticipants into 'house work and child care', 'studying and training', 'the others' categories, we estimate the potential wages with selectivity bias model and analyse the factors of choosing unemployment or nonparticipation with multinomial logit model. The differences between the potential market wage and the desired wage of the groups of 'studying and training', 'the others' in the nonparticipants are greater than those of the unemployment group. In the case of the man and lower age, and low schooling the differences of potential and desire wage are larger than woman and higher age, and high schooling. In the choice of unemployment and nonparticipation, man and higher age, and householder, and holder of qualification are not likely to opt nonparticipation. The experience of job lower the rate of probability to choose employment, but raise the rate of probability to choose unemployment and nonparticipation. These results mean that the quality of youth employment is very inferior.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.859-869
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• 2011

Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.261-261
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• 1998

교통계획의 목적은 교통체계를 분석하여 교통과 활동간의 상호작용을 효율화시켜 도시 및 지역사회의 목표를 달성하는데 있으며, 합리적인 교통계획을 수립하여 한정된 투자재원을 효율적으로 배분하기 위해서는 교통수요에 대한 합리적 접근이 필요하다. 교통수요예측의 접근방법은 미시적인 개별적 접근방법과 거시적인 집단적 접근방법으로 구분되며, 다시 모형화 기법이 결정적인가 확률적인가에 따라 개별결정적, 개별활률적, 그리고 집단결정적, 집단확률적 모형의 4가지로 구분될 수 있다. 이 중에서 일반적으로 관심의 대상이 되는 2가지 형태는 집단결정적, 개발확률적 모형이다. 집단결정적모형은 전통적 교통수요예측모형에 해당되며, 개별확률적모형은 1970년대 Mc Fadden을 시작으로 Ben-Akiva, Manheim을 중심으로 한 소비자 행동선택 이론에 근거한 개별행태모형이 이에 해당된다. 개별행태모형은 개개인의 통행행태를 다른 모든 조건이 동일할 때 개개인은 비용의 최소화를 추구하고, 비용과 관련한 통행행태는 거시적 수준에서의 주어진 제약 조건과 관계가 있으며, 의사결정은 확률분포에 의해서 결정되는 효용원칙(Efficiency Principle)에 입각하여 해석한다. 도시내와 도시간, 취업자와 비취업자, 출퇴근 시, 목적별 등의 여러 가지 통행에 있어서 다양한 변수들을 사용하여 교통수단 선택모형의 파라메카 값을 추정하고 통행패턴을 분석해 왔다. 본 논문에서는 개별행태모형인 로짓모형 중에서 집단다항로짓모형을 이용하여 여러 통행 중 공항시설의 접근에 필요한 교통수단 효용함수의 파라메타 값 추정 시, 일반적으로 사용되는 통행시간, 통행비용이라는 변수를 공통으로 두고, 대중교통의 경우에만 해당하는 환승이라는 특정대안변수(Specific alternative variable)를 첨가하여 그것이 수단선택에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 또한, 대중교통의 속성을 가지고 있는 지하철과 버스를 하나의 대안으로 묶어서 효용함수를 구한 다음 다시 승용차, 택시, 대중교통을 독립된 대안으로 두고 모형을 정립하는 NESTED LOGIT모형으로 파라메타를 추정하여 대중교통의 효용에 관해 분석·비교하였다. 본 논문에 이용된 자료는 공항을 이용하는 이용객들을 대상으로 직접 설문·면접조사한 자료이며 대상 교통수단은 승용차, 택시, 지하철, 버스로 설정하였다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.1-30
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• 2010

This study examines difference in age at marriage between spouses and more importantly, investigates into the economic and social factors affecting the ratio or probability of wife-older marriages. Empirical analysis is carried out by applying both logit model and multinomial logit model to an independently pooled cross-section over 2004-2007. The data was collected mainly from the micro data service system of the Statistics Korea. Empirical results indicate that a wife-older marriage was more likely as a wife was more educated and was a larger income earner than a husband. On the other hand, a wife's educational and income level themselves had few systematic relationships with the probability of a wife-older marriage. The probability of a wife-older marriage tended to decrease(increase) when a husband's(a wife's) marriage was the second' The study calculates the average marginal effect of difference in the income level between spouses on the probability of a wife-older marriage, which is -0.007. That is, the probability of a wife-older marriage increases by 0.7% as a husband's income level is 1 million Korean Won less than a wife's. This results presents empirical evidence against widely distributed misconception on wife-older marriage in the mass media.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-24
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• 2007

인구고령화의 진전과 함께 노인들의 거주형태에 대한 사회적. 정책적 관심이 증기하고 있으며, 그에 대한 논의와 연구들 또한 많이 늘어나고 있다. 그러나 이들 연구 대부분이 횡단적 자료(단일 시점이든 여러 시점이든)와 분석에 의존함으로써 노인지 거주형태가 생애주기를 따라 변하는 모습을 충분히 보여주지 못하고 있다. 이 연구는 한국노동연구원의 제1차 및 제6차 노동패널자료를 이용해 노년기 거주형태의 유동성을 경험적으로 제시하려는 목적을 가진다. 이들 위해 거주형태의 출현율(prevalence rate)과 전이율(transition rate)을 개념적으로 구분하고 자녀동거여부에 대한 분석을 실시하였다. 두 시점에 대한 횡단폭 분석결과는 노인들의 사회인구학적 특성에 따른 자녀별거경향의 차이를 보여주더라도 생애주기에 따른 역동성을 보여주기에는 한계가 많음이 확인되었다. 두 시점 간의 거주형태 변화에 대한 패널분석에서는 다수 노인들의 거주형태가 주어진 기간 동안 안정적으로 나타났다. 그러나 거주형태의 변화를 경험하는 데에는 연령증가와 배우자 상태변화 등이 중요한 요인임이 확인되었다. 이러한 생애주기적 변화의 효과는 대부분의 계량적 연구에서 유추되는 수준이거나 질적 연구에서만 보고되어 왔던 것이다. 이 연구결과는 노년기 거주형태의 지속성을 보여주는 한편 변화 가능성과 요인을 파악함으로써 노년기 거주형태에 대한 개념적 이해론 공고히 할 것으로 기대된다. 또한 이 연구에서 제시된 방법론적 논의와 접근방식은 생애주기별 변화에 초점을 두고자 하는 다른 연구영역에서도 적용 가능할 것이라 기대된다.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.81-102
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• 2010

The present study analyzes the choice factors and possibility of traditional and other competing markets through consumer behavior analyses in order to suggest factors that can help reactivate traditional markets. Hence, Multinomial Logit Model is used as it is an optimum model to understand discrete selection. The results suggested some tendencies regarding traditional market. For example, traditional market is more activated when the market is large and has more parking spaces, and when the level of consumer satisfaction is high. While, increased travel distance and time have negative effects on visitor's choice. Governmental supports are turned out to have less to do with the consumer attraction. People with higher incomes tend to prefer other types of market. The results also suggested there is more likelihood of traditional markets being reactivated if the market is not fiercely competing with other types of markets. Internet market is ranked top in consumer's choice possibility, while traditional market is ranked at the bottom. The plausible factors to reactivate traditional market were physical factors(including increasing shops and parking facilities), which is followed by governmental support.