• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.4A
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• pp.647-657
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• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Cable Stayed Bridge, which is Prestressed Concrete Bridge consisted of cable and plate girders, based on the method of Working Stress Design and Strength Design. Component reliabilities of cables and girders have been evaluated using the response surface of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear, positive and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to obtain through Monte-Carlo Simulations. or through First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system consisting of cables and plate girder is changed into series connection system and the result of system reliability of total structure is presented. As a system reliability, the upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method, which calculates upper and lower bound failure probabilities.