• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 2003.02a
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• pp.173-190
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• 2003

Demand forecasting is essential in establishing national and corporate strategy as well as the management of their resource. We forecast demand for multi-generation product using discrete choice model combining diffusion model The discrete choice model generally captures consumers'valuation of the product's qualify in the framework of a cross-sectional analysis. We incorporate diffusion effects into a discrete choice model in order to capture the dynamics of demand for multi-generation products. As an empirical application, we forecast demand for worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) and each of its generations from 1999 to 2005. In so doing, we use the method of 'Technological Forecasting'for DRAM Density and Price of the generations based on the Moore's law and learning by doing, respectively. Since we perform our analysis at the market level, we adopt the inversion routine in using the discrete choice model and find that our model performs well in explaining the current market situation, and also in forecasting new product diffusion in multi-generation product markets.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.303-307
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• 2003

본 연구는 생체지문 인식장치의 전략적 상품기획 프로세스를 통하여 표준화된 신상품 기획안을 도출하는데 있다. 이를 위해 사업전략과 목표시장을 설정한 후 1차 설문결과, 고객 요구준건을 , 2차의 설문조사 응답 결과를 바탕으로 기획품질을 결정하며, 이것의 만족도 정도를 Sales point로 삼았다. 상관 매트릭스를 이용하여 요구품질과 기술적 요소의 대응 정도를 살펴 본 후, 개발 제품 현재의 품질 특성치를 파악하기 위해 경쟁업체의 제품을 기준으로 벤치마킹 테스트를 실시하여 첫째, 세대별 상품전략 둘째, 세대별 요소기술 map. 셋째, 세대별 상품 컨셉. 넷째, 세대별 개발계획의 4개 파트의 다세대 상품기획을 수립하였다.