• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다변량-GARCH

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A study on the Linkage of Volatility in Stock Markets under Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기하에서 주식시장 변동성의 연관성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2014
  • This study is to examine the linkage of volatility between changes in the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy. The results were as follows: First, autocorrelation or serial correlation did not exist in the classic RS model, but long-term memory was present in the modified RS model. Second, unit root did not exist in the unit root test for all periods, and the series were a stable explanatory power and a long-term memory with the normal conditions in the ARFIMA model. Third, in the multivariate asymmetric BEKK and VAR model before the financial crisis, it showed that there was a strong influence of the own market of Taiwan and UK in the conditional mean equation, and a strong spillover effect from Japan to India, from Taiwan to China(Korea, US), from US(Japan) to UK in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, GARCH showed a strong spillover effect that indicated the same direction as the result of ARCH coefficient of the market itself. Asymmetric effects in three home markets and between markets existed. Fourth, after the financial crisis, in the conditional mean equation, only the domestic market in Taiwan showed strong influences, and strong spillover effects existed from India to US, from Taiwan to Japan, from Korea to Germany in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, strong spillover effects were the same as the result of the pre-crisis and asymmetric effect in the domestic market in UK was present, and one-way asymmetric effect existed in Germany from Taiwan. Therefore, the results of this study presented the linkage between the volatilities of the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy, observing and confirming the asymmetric reactions and return(volatility) spillover effects between the stock market of India and other countries.

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