• Title/Summary/Keyword: 누적확률밀도

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Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

Statistical Approach for Determination of Compliance with Clearance Criteria Based upon Types of Radionuclide Distributions in a Very Low-Level Radioactive Waste (극저준위 방사성폐기물의 방사성핵종 분포유형에 기초하여 자체처분기준 만족여부를 판단하기 위한 통계학적 접근방법)

  • Cheong, Jae-Hak
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2010
  • A statistical evaluation methodology was developed to determine the compliance of candidate waste stream with clearance criteria based upon distribution of radionuclide in a waste stream at a certain confidence level. For the cases where any information on the radionuclide distribution is not available, the relation between arithmetic mean of radioactivity concentration and its acceptable maximum standard deviation was demonstrated by applying widely-known Markov Inequality and One-side Chebyshev Inequality. The relations between arithmetic mean and its acceptable maximum standard deviation were newly derived for normally or lognormally distributed radionuclide in a waste stream, using probability density function, cumulative density function, and other statistical relations. The evaluation methodology was tested for a representative case at 95% of confidence level and 100 Bq/g of clearance level of radioactivity concentration, and then the acceptable range of standard deviation at a given arithmetic mean was quantitatively shown and compared, by varying the type of radionuclide distribution. Furthermore, it was statistically demonstrated that the allowable range of clearance can be expanded, even at the same confidence level, if information on the radionuclide distribution is available.

Reliability Analysis and Fatigue Models of Concrete under Flexural or Split Tensional Cyclic Loadings (휨 또는 쪼갬인장 반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 신뢰성 해석과 피로모델 제안)

  • Kim Dong-Ho;Sim Do-Sik;Kim Sung-Hwan;Yun Kyong-Ku
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.16 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2004
  • This paper compares the fatigue behaviors of concretes subjected to flexural and split-tensional loadings, and proposes the fatigue reliability models based on experimental results and reliability analysis. The fatigue tests were performed for the specimens of $150 mm{\times}75 mm$ split tensional cylinders and $150 mm{\times}150 mm{\times}550 mm$ flexural beams under constant loadings at three levels (70, 80 and $90\%$) with 0.1 stress ratio, 20 Hz loading speed and sine wave. The reliability analysis on fatigue data was based on Weibull distribution of two-parameters. From fatigue test results, two criteria were proposed to reject the experimental fatigue data because of statistical variation of concrete fatigue data. Two parameters ($\alpha$and u) of Weibull distribution were obtained using graphical method, moment method and maximum likelihood method. The probability density function(P.D.F) and cumulative distribution function(C.D.F) of the Weibull distribution for fatigue life of pavement concrete were derived for various stress levels using parameters, $\alpha$ and u. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable at $5\%$ level of significance. Based on reliability analysis, a fatigue model for pavement concrete was proposed and compared from existing models.

New Analytical Approach for Dual-hop AF Relay systems over Rayleigh Fading Channels (레일리 페이딩 채널에 대한 이중 홉 증폭 후 전달 릴레이 시스템의 새로운 분석 기법)

  • Ko, Kyun-Byoung;Seo, Jeong-Tae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.48 no.8
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, another analytical approach for dual-hop amplify-and-forward(AF) relay systems is proposed over Rayleigh fading channels. Previous approaches derived the moment generating function(MGF) by using the cumulative distribution function(CDF) or probability density function(PDF) of the received signal-to-noise ratio(SNR) for source-relay-destination(S-R-D) link. Then, the average symbol error rate is expressed based on derived MGFs. In this paper, another new approach is proposed. It means that the MGF is directly derived by utilizing PDFs of both source-relay(S-R) and relay-destination(R-D) links. Additionary, the newly derived MGF is compared and analyzed with previous ones. Furthermore, simulation results are presented to validate the accuracy of proposed analytical expression. Based on this, it is confirmed that the proposed analytical approach can be a another solution for dual-hop AF relay systems.

Electrical characteristics for Multi-Nanocomposites throuh Surface Control of Epoxy/Nano_Micro $SiO_2$ Particles (Epoxy/Nano_Micro $SiO_2$입자 표면제어를 통한 멀티-나노콤포지트 전기적 특성연구)

  • Park, Young-Byum;Park, Hyun-Su;O, Chung-Yon;Kim, Hak-Jae;Park, Ki-Ryung;Lee, Dae-Kyoung;Park, Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.154-154
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구는 고전압 전력기기인 몰드형변압기와 계기용 변성기인 CT, PT 절연특성에 유용한 Epoxy/Nano-Micro Mixture Composites(이하,ENMMC)를 개발하기위해 무엇보다 중요한 것은 Nano입자인 $SiO_2$_10nm입자의 표면을 제어하여 즉, 표면의 소수성을 크게 하여 나노입자의 균질한 분산을 얻은것이 무엇보다 중요하다. 개발된 Epoxy/$SiO_2$_10nm Nanocomposites와 Microcomposites을 기계적 전단응력을 이용하여 균질 혼합을 실시하였다. 이런 조건을 이용한 전기적특성을 측정하기위해 구대구 전극이 완전함침된 평등전계하에서 절연파괴전압을 측정하기 시편을 제조하였다. 마이크로입자의 충진함량을 일정하게 유지하여 나노입자 충진함량비율을 4가지로 변화시켜 절연파괴특성을 연구하였다. 충진함량이 나노입자의 경우 1wt%이하의 값이 상대적으로 우수한 절연파괴특성으로 와이블 플롯을 통하여 알수있었다. 상대적으로 멀티나노콤포지트의 형상파라미터가 큰 결과값을 얻을수 있었다. 그리고 스케일파리미터는 누적확률 밀도함수로서 63.2%에서 대단히 큰 초절연성의 절연소재를 개발할수 있었다.

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Frequency Sharing of TDD-OFDM/OFDMA Based Systems beyond 3G with Fixed Satellite Service Earth Station (TDD-OFDM/OFDMA 기반의 차세대 이동 통신 시스템과 고정 위성서비스 지구국 간의 주파수 공유 분석)

  • Jo Han-Shin;Yoon Hyun-Goo;Yook Jong-Gwan
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.17 no.5 s.108
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    • pp.440-450
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, the frequency sharing issue between time division duplex-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing/orthogonal frequency division multiple access(TDD-OFDM/OFDMA) based systems beyond third generation(B3G) and fixed Satellite Service(FSS) earth station has been studied. The conventional advanced minimum coupling loss(A-MCL) is adopted to assess the interference from a single base station(BS) of B3G systems. The aggregated interferences from base stations and mobile stations(MS) are evaluated by applying the extended A-MCL and analysed with a cumulative density function(CDF). The minimum distances that enable a single FSS earth station to sharing the frequency with a single BS are between 4 and 53.3 km. In the case of 20 MS per sector, the BS-to-BS distance and the minimum distance between a ES and BS are 6.5 and 2.8 km, respectively.

An image enhancement algorithm for detecting the license plate region using the image of the car personal recorder (차량 번호판 검출을 위한 자동차 개인 저장 장치 이미지 향상 알고리즘)

  • Yun, Jong-Ho;Choi, Myung-Ryul;Lee, Sang-Sun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2016
  • We propose an adaptive histogram stretching algorithm for application to a car's personal recorder. The algorithm was used for pre-processing to detect the license plate region in an image from a personal recorder. The algorithm employs a Probability Density Function (PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) to analyze the distribution diagram of the images. These two functions are calculated using an image obtained by sampling at a certain pixel interval. The images were subjected to different levels of stretching, and experiments were done on the images to extract their characteristics. The results show that the proposed algorithm provides less deterioration than conventional algorithms. Moreover, contrast is enhanced according to the characteristics of the image. The algorithm could provide better performance than existing algorithms in applications for detecting search regions for license plates.

Low flow projection considering actual evapotranspiration by climate change (기후변화에 따른 실제증발산을 고려한 갈수량 전망)

  • Kim, Eunji;Kang, Boosik;Sun, Hoyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.384-384
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    • 2020
  • 갈수량은 연간 355번째에 해당하는 일유량으로 연중 10일은 유지할 수 있는 유량을 의미한다. 갈수량은 하천유지유량을 결정하고 다목적댐의 이수안전도를 평가하는 기준으로 활용되는 지표로 활용되고 있으나 현재 기준으로는 과거사상에 초점을 맞추어 산정되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 수문사상의 변화로 인한 미래 극한사상에 대비한 평가기준 마련을 위하여 CMIP5의 GCM 자료를 활용한 한강수계의 소양강댐의 실제증발산량을 추정하고, 이를 고려한 갈수량을 전망하고자 한다. 실제증발산의 경우 관측자료가 부재하므로 증발산 보완관계 가설 기반의 간접계산을 통해 추정하였으며, 잠재증발산량은 FAO Penman-Monteith 공식, 습윤증발산량은 Priestley-Taylor공식을 활용하여 산정하였다. 기준기간(1974-2000년) GCM 자료의 보정은 강우 및 증발산에 대하여 정상성 분위사상법을 적용하였으며, 우리나라의 홍수기 특성을 반영하기 위하여 홍수기(6~9월) 및 비홍수기(10~5월)로 구분하였다. 소양강댐 유역에 대한 연단위 원시 GCM의 경우, 연단위 강우와 실제증발산 각각 -20.0%, +17.3%의 오차율을 보였으나, 지역오차보정 후 각각 -1.2%, -0.2%로 개선되었다. 전망기간(2011-2100년)에 대해서는 비정상성 분위사상법을 적용하였으며, 지역오차보정 과정을 거친 강우 및 실제증발산 자료는 장기유출모형의 입력자료로 활용되었다. 실제증발산을 고려한 유출량을 산정하기 위해 IHACRES 모형을 활용하였으며, 갈수량은 모형으로부터 산정된 유출 시계열에 대한 lognormal 분포의 누적확률밀도함수의 3%에 해당하는 값으로 결정하였다. 전망결과는 근미래(Near future, 2011~2040년), 중미래(Midcentury future, 2041~2070년), 먼미래(Distance future, 2071~2100년)로 나누어 제시하였으며, 미래구간별 추세를 반영한 증감율을 제시하였다.

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Landslide Vulnerability Mapping considering GCI(Geospatial Correlative Integration) and Rainfall Probability In Inje (GCI(Geospatial Correlative Integration) 및 확률강우량을 고려한 인제지역 산사태 취약성도 작성)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Sa-Ro;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Kim, Geun-Han
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.21-47
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    • 2013
  • The aim is to analysis landslide vulnerability in Inje, Korea, using GCI(Geospatial Correlative Integration) and probability rainfalls based on geographic information system (GIS). In order to achieve this goal, identified indicators influencing landslides based on literature review. We include indicators of exposure to climate(rainfall probability), sensitivity(slope, aspect, curvature, geology, topography, soil drainage, soil material, soil thickness and soil texture) and adaptive capacity(timber diameter, timber type, timber density and timber age). All data were collected, processed, and compiled in a spatial database using GIS. Karisan-ri that had experienced 470 landslides by Typhoon Ewinia in 2006 was selected for analysis and verification. The 50% of landslide data were randomly selected to use as training data, while the other 50% being used for verification. The probability of landslides for target years (1 year, 3 years, 10 years, 50 years, and 100 years) was calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by 3-day cumulative rainfalls of 449 mm. Results show that number of slope has comparatively strong influence on landslide damage. And inclination of $25{\sim}30^{\circ}C$, the highest correlation landslide. Improved previous landslide vulnerability methodology by adopting GCI. Also, vulnerability map provides meaningful information for decision makers regarding priority areas for implementing landslide mitigation policies.

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Parameterization of the Temperature-Dependent Development of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acari: Tetranychidae) and a Matrix Model for Population Projection (귤응애 온도발육 매개변수 추정 및 개체군 추정 행렬모형)

  • Yang, Jin-Young;Choi, Kyung-San;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2011
  • Temperature-related parameters of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acarina: Tetranychidae) development were estimated and a stage-structured matrix model was developed. The lower threshold temperatures were estimated as $8.4^{\circ}C$ for eggs, $9.9^{\circ}C$ for larvae, $9.2^{\circ}C$ for protonymphs, and $10.9^{\circ}C$ for deutonymphs. Thermal constants were 113.6, 29.1, 29.8, and 33.4 degree days for eggs, larvae, protonymphs, and deutonymphs, respectively. Non-linear development models were established for each stage of P. citri. In addition, temperature-dependent total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate models were developed for the construction of an oviposition model. P. citri age was categorized into five stages to construct a matrix model: eggs, larvae, protonymphs, deutonymphs and adults. For the elements in the projection matrix, transition probabilities from an age class to the next age class or the probabilities of remaining in an age class were obtained from development rate function of each stage (age classes). Also, the fecundity coefficients of adult population were expressed as the products of adult longevity completion rate (1/longevity) by temperature-dependent total fecundity. To evaluate the predictability of the matrix model, model outputs were compared with actual field data in a cool early season and hot mid to late season in 2004. The model outputs closely matched the actual field patterns within 30 d after the model was run in both the early and mid to late seasons. Therefore, the developed matrix model can be used to estimate the population density of P. citri for a period of 30 d in citrus orchards.