• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제27권5호
• /
• pp.843-853
• /
• 2014

급증하고 있는 전력수요에 대한 신뢰성 있는 예측은 합리적인 전력수급계획 수립 및 운용에 있어서 매우 중대한 사안이다. 본 논문에서는 여러 시계열 모형의 비교를 통해 전력수요량과 밀접한 연관성이 있는 온도를 어떠한 형태로 고려할 것인지, 또한 4계절이 뚜렷하여 계절별 기온 차가 많이 나는 우리나라의 특성을 어떻게 고려할 것인지에 대하여 연구하였다. 모형 간 예측력을 비교하기 위하여 Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)를 사용하였다. 모형의 성능비교 결과는 냉 난방지수와 계절요인을 동시에 고려하면서 큰 변동성을 잘 고려해줄 수 있는 Reg-AR GARCH 모형이 가장 우수한 예측력을 나타냈다.

• 한국지열·수열에너지학회논문집
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.7-12
• /
• 2014

Government has recently restricted heating and cooling set temperatures for the commercial and public buildings due to increasing national energy consumption. The goal of this paper is to visualize a future two way indoor set temperature control impact on building energy consumption by using TRNSYS simulation modeling. The building was modelled based on the twin test cell with the same dimension. Air source ground coupled heat pump performance data has been used for modeling by TRNSYS 17. Daejeon weather data has been used from Korea Solar Energy Society. The heating set temperature in the reference room is $24^{\circ}C$ as well as the target room set temperature are $23^{\circ}C$, $22^{\circ}C$, $21^{\circ}C$ and $20^{\circ}C$. The cooling set temperature of the reference room is also $24^{\circ}C$ as well as the target room set temperature of $25^{\circ}C$, $26^{\circ}C$, $27^{\circ}C$ and $28^{\circ}C$. For the air source heat pump system, heating season energy consumption is $35.52kWh/m^2y$ in the reference room. But the heating energy consumption in the target room is reduced to 7.5% whenever the set temperature decreased every $1^{\circ}C$. The cooling energy consumption in the reference room is $4.57kWh/m^2y$. On the other hand, the energy consumption in the target room is reduced to 22% whenever the set temperature increased every $1^{\circ}C$ by two way controller. For the geothermal heat pump system, heating energy consumption in the reference room is reduced to 20.7%. The target room heating energy consumption is reduced to 32.6% when the set temperature is $22^{\circ}C$. The energy consumption in the target room is reduced to 59.5% when the set temperature is $26^{\circ}C$.