• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.149-172
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• 2005

장래인구추계(population projection)는 한 사회의 인구수 및 구조 변화를 추정하는 것으로 사회의 잠재적 자원 수요와 노동력 공급을 위한 기초정보를 제공한다. 정확한 장래인구를 추계하는 것은 국가 및 중앙정부 뿐 아니라 지방정부 혹은 그보다 규모가 작은 기초자치단체도 미래의 사회적 변화에 대응하고 지역 특성에 알맞은 정책을 마련하기 위하여 중요한 일임에 틀림없다. 우리나라의 경우 장래인구추계는 통계청에서 담당하고 있는데 현재까지 국가 및 시도단위의 장래인구추계 결과를 발표하고 있으며 기초자치단체는 인구추계의 대상에서 제외되어 있다. 이 글은 Hamilton과 Perry에 의해서 최초 개발되어 실제 미국의 소규모지역별 장래인구추계에 사용되어 온 추계기법을 사용하여 한국의 기초자치단체에의 적용가능성에 대해 검토해 본 연구이다. 장래인구추계를 위한 H-P기법은 도시와 농촌지역의 기초자치단체에 각각 적용해 본 결과 통계청에서 주로 사용하고 있는 코호트 조성법을 이용한 추계기법보다 단순하고 추계를 위해 필요한 정보도 쉽게 얻을 수 있으면서도 비교적 정확한 추계결과를 제시하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1167-1173
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• 2011

The goal of this paper is to suggest an algorithm to get forecasting for the numbers of students in the city or county in local government by using the double exponential smoothing method. By 2044 year, the third year of high school students in the Chilgok, Gumi, Gyeongsan, Andong, Pohang and Gimchen are reduced about 40-70%, the those of in the remaining city or county are reduced about 70-95%. In conclusion, the forecasting numbers of students of the 23 counties in Kyungbuk Province are on the decrease to 40%-100% until 2044 year in comparison with the numbers of students on 2010 years.

• 지역과문화
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.77-104
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• 2019

This study examines the efficiency of using local cultural resources in local governments. The study does so by DEA(Data Envelope Analysis) using data from the year 2017 for 17 local governments in Korea. In addition, this study tries to estimate environmental efficiency of local cultural resources. For this, the 'Total Efficiency' including the output variables related to the local cultural resource environment was analyzed. After than It compared the 'Total Efficiency' with the 'Utilization Efficiency', to estimate the 'Environmental Efficiency' of local cultural resources. The followings are results which are significant statistically. Firstly, it was evaluated that five of the 17 local governments utilized the local cultural resources efficiently. Secondly, it was result that the inefficiency of the other local governments was relatively influenced by the economies of scale than PTE(Pure Technical Efficiency). Thirdly, It has been confirmed that environmental aspects such as cultural properties and cultural infrastructure have a considerable impact on the increase or decrease of efficiency in local governments. The difference in the efficiency of local governments are influenced by the population density. In order to improve the efficiency in the future, it is necessary to adjust the appropriate level of input according to the local population estimate, which is a major consumer of the local cultural resource utilization. In addition, the local festivals and village festivals held by local governments should be checked to improve in quality by eliminating inefficiencies. Also, it should be considered of environmental factors together, when analyzing the efficiency of the local cultural resource in local governments.