• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.271-300
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• 2004

We investigate the two recent simulations of the proto-type domestic carbon emission trading system in Korea and draw some policy implications. The first simulation includes the 5 electric power companies based on baseline and credit. But the second one is with the 7 energy-intensive companies based on cap and trade. The voluntary approaches in this paper revealed the instability of market equilibrium, i.e., price volatility or distortion, excess supply or demand. These phenomena stems from excess incentives to the players, asymmetric information, players' irresponsible strategic behaviors, and non acquaintance of trading system. This paper suggests the basic design for domestic carbon trading system in future and a stepwise introduction strategy for it including the incentive auction scheme, the total quantity of incentive needed, and how to finance it. Meantime, the further simulations on the various sectors based on voluntary participation must be essential for learning experiences and better policy design.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.8
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• pp.572-578
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• 2020

The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.85-107
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• 2019

Online consumers browse products belonging to a particular product line or brand for purchase, or simply leave a wide range of navigation without making purchase. The research on the behavior and purchase of online consumers has been steadily progressed, and related services and applications based on behavior data of consumers have been developed in practice. In recent years, customization strategies and recommendation systems of consumers have been utilized due to the development of big data technology, and attempts are being made to optimize users' shopping experience. However, even in such an attempt, it is very unlikely that online consumers will actually be able to visit the website and switch to the purchase stage. This is because online consumers do not just visit the website to purchase products but use and browse the websites differently according to their shopping motives and purposes. Therefore, it is important to analyze various types of visits as well as visits to purchase, which is important for understanding the behaviors of online consumers. In this study, we explored the clustering analysis of session based on click stream data of e-commerce company in order to explain diversity and complexity of search behavior of online consumers and typified search behavior. For the analysis, we converted data points of more than 8 million pages units into visit units' sessions, resulting in a total of over 500,000 website visit sessions. For each visit session, 12 characteristics such as page view, duration, search diversity, and page type concentration were extracted for clustering analysis. Considering the size of the data set, we performed the analysis using the Mini-Batch K-means algorithm, which has advantages in terms of learning speed and efficiency while maintaining the clustering performance similar to that of the clustering algorithm K-means. The most optimized number of clusters was derived from four, and the differences in session unit characteristics and purchasing rates were identified for each cluster. The online consumer visits the website several times and learns about the product and decides the purchase. In order to analyze the purchasing process over several visits of the online consumer, we constructed the visiting sequence data of the consumer based on the navigation patterns in the web site derived clustering analysis. The visit sequence data includes a series of visiting sequences until one purchase is made, and the items constituting one sequence become cluster labels derived from the foregoing. We have separately established a sequence data for consumers who have made purchases and data on visits for consumers who have only explored products without making purchases during the same period of time. And then sequential pattern mining was applied to extract frequent patterns from each sequence data. The minimum support is set to 10%, and frequent patterns consist of a sequence of cluster labels. While there are common derived patterns in both sequence data, there are also frequent patterns derived only from one side of sequence data. We found that the consumers who made purchases through the comparative analysis of the extracted frequent patterns showed the visiting pattern to decide to purchase the product repeatedly while searching for the specific product. The implication of this study is that we analyze the search type of online consumers by using large - scale click stream data and analyze the patterns of them to explain the behavior of purchasing process with data-driven point. Most studies that typology of online consumers have focused on the characteristics of the type and what factors are key in distinguishing that type. In this study, we carried out an analysis to type the behavior of online consumers, and further analyzed what order the types could be organized into one another and become a series of search patterns. In addition, online retailers will be able to try to improve their purchasing conversion through marketing strategies and recommendations for various types of visit and will be able to evaluate the effect of the strategy through changes in consumers' visit patterns.

• 대한공업교육학회지
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.192-217
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• 2008

This paper investigated the perceived criticalities and patterns of Korean Professional Engineer's competency regarding the working activities of automative product development, manufacturing, etc by using questionnaires responded to the survey which were applied to the automotive professors, experts and professional engineers (vocational parties) by e/mail, etc. This research investigated the following questions: First, what are the characteristic patterns, relevancy and perceived criticalities of Korean Professional Engineer's competencies? Second, What are the ranked priority of the Korean Professional Engineers' competencies? Are there any differency for each item, sub group of job, intelectual criterior of the competencies between relevancy and perceived criticalities according to the types of vocational parties, etc.? Accoring to the results; first, Professor group showed highest points among 3 groups per each item of the competencies by vocational parties Second, Chassis design group ranked top position among the 8 sub groups by vocational parties and, third, Problem Solving Knowledge ranked highest points than any others. Korean Professional Engineers are found to be positioned as key members, leaders and managers on surveying market, product planning, designing product & components, developing component parts, establishing shop with production equipment, managing quality control & material handling, organizing relevant meetings, developing human resources by training and learning, to back up finance with law matters, cooperating with concerned parties to achieve organizational goals, and to coordinate projects. etc, identifying ethical issues and business skills in order to survive and win to be competitive in various kinds of the automotive industry battle fields.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.29-56
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• 2021

Recently, various types of products have been launched with the rapid growth of the e-commerce market. As a result, many users face information overload problems, which is time-consuming in the purchasing decision-making process. Therefore, the importance of a personalized recommendation service that can provide customized products and services to users is emerging. For example, global companies such as Netflix, Amazon, and Google have introduced personalized recommendation services to support users' purchasing decisions. Accordingly, the user's information search cost can reduce which can positively affect the company's sales increase. The existing personalized recommendation service research applied Collaborative Filtering (CF) technique predicts user preference mainly use quantified information. However, the recommendation performance may have decreased if only use quantitative information. To improve the problems of such existing studies, many studies using reviews to enhance recommendation performance. However, reviews contain factors that hinder purchasing decisions, such as advertising content, false comments, meaningless or irrelevant content. When providing recommendation service uses a review that includes these factors can lead to decrease recommendation performance. Therefore, we proposed a novel recommendation methodology through CNN-based review usefulness score prediction to improve these problems. The results show that the proposed methodology has better prediction performance than the recommendation method considering all existing preference ratings. In addition, the results suggest that can enhance the performance of traditional CF when the information on review usefulness reflects in the personalized recommendation service.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.131-150
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to observe the spread pattern of open source software (OSS) while establishing relations with surrounding actors during its operation period. In order to investigate the change pattern of participants in the OSS, we use a netnography on the basis of online data, which can trace the change patterns of the OSS depending on the passage of time. For this, the cases of three OSSs (e.g. jQuery, MooTools, and YUI), which are JavaScript frameworks, were compared, and the corresponding data were collected from the open application programming interface (API) of GitHub as well as blog and web searches. This research utilizes the translation process of the actor-network theory to categorize the stages of the change patterns on the OSS translation process. In the project commencement stage, we identified the type of three different OSS-related actors and defined associated relationships among them. The period, when a master commences a project at first, is refined through the course for the maintenance of source codes with persons concerned (i.e. project growth stage). Thereafter, the period when the users have gone through the observation and learning period by being exposed to promotion activities and codes usage respectively, and becoming to active participants, is regarded as the 'leap of participants' stage. Our results emphasize the importance of promotion processes in participants' selection of the OSS for participation and confirm the crowding-out effect that the rapid speed of OSS development retarded the emergence of participants.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.139-161
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• 2019

The utilization of the e-commerce market has become a common life style in today. It has become important part to know where and how to make reasonable purchases of good quality products for customers. This change in purchase psychology tends to make it difficult for customers to make purchasing decisions in vast amounts of information. In this case, the recommendation system has the effect of reducing the cost of information retrieval and improving the satisfaction by analyzing the purchasing behavior of the customer. Amazon and Netflix are considered to be the well-known examples of sales marketing using the recommendation system. In the case of Amazon, 60% of the recommendation is made by purchasing goods, and 35% of the sales increase was achieved. Netflix, on the other hand, found that 75% of movie recommendations were made using services. This personalization technique is considered to be one of the key strategies for one-to-one marketing that can be useful in online markets where salespeople do not exist. Recommendation techniques that are mainly used in recommendation systems today include collaborative filtering and content-based filtering. Furthermore, hybrid techniques and association rules that use these techniques in combination are also being used in various fields. Of these, collaborative filtering recommendation techniques are the most popular today. Collaborative filtering is a method of recommending products preferred by neighbors who have similar preferences or purchasing behavior, based on the assumption that users who have exhibited similar tendencies in purchasing or evaluating products in the past will have a similar tendency to other products. However, most of the existed systems are recommended only within the same category of products such as books and movies. This is because the recommendation system estimates the purchase satisfaction about new item which have never been bought yet using customer's purchase rating points of a similar commodity based on the transaction data. In addition, there is a problem about the reliability of purchase ratings used in the recommendation system. Reliability of customer purchase ratings is causing serious problems. In particular, 'Compensatory Review' refers to the intentional manipulation of a customer purchase rating by a company intervention. In fact, Amazon has been hard-pressed for these "compassionate reviews" since 2016 and has worked hard to reduce false information and increase credibility. The survey showed that the average rating for products with 'Compensated Review' was higher than those without 'Compensation Review'. And it turns out that 'Compensatory Review' is about 12 times less likely to give the lowest rating, and about 4 times less likely to leave a critical opinion. As such, customer purchase ratings are full of various noises. This problem is directly related to the performance of recommendation systems aimed at maximizing profits by attracting highly satisfied customers in most e-commerce transactions. In this study, we propose the possibility of using new indicators that can objectively substitute existing customer 's purchase ratings by using RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique to solve a series of problems. RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique is the most widely used analytical method in customer relationship management marketing(CRM), and is a data analysis method for selecting customers who are likely to purchase goods. As a result of verifying the actual purchase history data using the relevant index, the accuracy was as high as about 55%. This is a result of recommending a total of 4,386 different types of products that have never been bought before, thus the verification result means relatively high accuracy and utilization value. And this study suggests the possibility of general recommendation system that can be applied to various offline product data. If additional data is acquired in the future, the accuracy of the proposed recommendation system can be improved.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.233-253
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• 2014

Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2012

Personalized smart devices such as smartphones and smart pads are widely used. Unlike traditional feature phones, theses smart devices allow users to choose a variety of functions, which support not only daily experiences but also business operations. Actually, there exist a huge number of applications accessible by smart device users in online and mobile application markets. Users can choose apps that fit their own tastes and needs, which is impossible for conventional phone users. With the increase in app demand, the tastes and needs of app users are becoming more diverse. To meet these requirements, numerous apps with diverse functions are being released on the market, which leads to fierce competition. Unlike offline markets, online markets have a limitation in that purchasing decisions should be made without experiencing the items. Therefore, online customers rely more on item-related information that can be seen on the item page in which online markets commonly provide details about each item. Customers can feel confident about the quality of an item through the online information and decide whether to purchase it. The same is true of online app markets. To win the sales competition against other apps that perform similar functions, app developers need to focus on writing app descriptions to attract the attention of customers. If we can measure the effect of app descriptions on sales without regard to the app's price and quality, app descriptions that facilitate the sale of apps can be identified. This study intends to provide such a quantitative result for app developers who want to promote the sales of their apps. For this purpose, we collected app details including the descriptions written in Korean from one of the largest app markets in Korea, and then extracted keywords from the descriptions. Next, the impact of the keywords on sales performance was measured through our econometric model. Through this analysis, we were able to analyze the impact of each keyword itself, apart from that of the design or quality. The keywords, comprised of the attribute and evaluation of each app, are extracted by a morpheme analyzer. Our model with the keywords as its input variables was established to analyze their impact on sales performance. A regression analysis was conducted for each category in which apps are included. This analysis was required because we found the keywords, which are emphasized in app descriptions, different category-by-category. The analysis conducted not only for free apps but also for paid apps showed which keywords have more impact on sales performance for each type of app. In the analysis of paid apps in the education category, keywords such as 'search+easy' and 'words+abundant' showed higher effectiveness. In the same category, free apps whose keywords emphasize the quality of apps showed higher sales performance. One interesting fact is that keywords describing not only the app but also the need for the app have asignificant impact. Language learning apps, regardless of whether they are sold free or paid, showed higher sales performance by including the keywords 'foreign language study+important'. This result shows that motivation for the purchase affected sales. While item reviews are widely researched in online markets, item descriptions are not very actively studied. In the case of the mobile app markets, newly introduced apps may not have many item reviews because of the low quantity sold. In such cases, item descriptions can be regarded more important when customers make a decision about purchasing items. This study is the first trial to quantitatively analyze the relationship between an item description and its impact on sales performance. The results show that our research framework successfully provides a list of the most effective sales key terms with the estimates of their effectiveness. Although this study is performed for a specified type of item (i.e., mobile apps), our model can be applied to almost all of the items traded in online markets.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.53-76
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• 2005

With rapid technological and market change, new product development (NPD) complexity is a significant issue that organizations continually face in their development projects. There are numerous factors, which cause development projects to become increasingly costly & complex. A product is more likely to be successfully developed and marketed when the complexity inherent in NPD projects is clearly understood and carefully managed. Based upon the previous studies, this study examines the nature and importance of complexity in developing new products and then identifies several issues in managing complexity. Issues considered include: definition of complexity : consequences of complexity; and methods for managing complexity in NPD projects. To achieve high performance in managing complexity in development projects, these issues need to be addressed, for example: A. Complexity inherent in NPD projects is multi-faceted and multidimensional. What factors need to be considered in defining and/or measuring complexity in a development project? For example, is it sufficient if complexity is defined only from a technological perspective, or is it more desirable to consider the entire array of complexity sources which NPD teams with different functions (e.g., marketing, R&D, manufacturing, etc.) face in the development process? Moreover, is it sufficient if complexity is measured only once during a development project, or is it more effective and useful to trace complexity changes over the entire development life cycle? B. Complexity inherent in a project can have negative as well as positive influences on NPD performance. Thus, which complexity impacts are usually considered negative and which are positive? Project complexity also can affect the entire organization. Any complexity could be better assessed in broader and longer perspective. What are some ways in which the long-term impact of complexity on an organization can be assessed and managed? C. Based upon previous studies, several approaches for managing complexity are derived. What are the weaknesses & strengths of each approach? Is there a desirable hierarchy or order among these approaches when more than one approach is used? Are there differences in the outcomes according to industry and product types (incremental or radical)? Answers to these and other questions can help organizations effectively manage the complexity inherent in most development projects. Complexity is worthy of additional attention from researchers and practitioners alike. Large-scale empirical investigations, jointly conducted by researchers and practitioners, will help gain useful insights into understanding and managing complexity. Those organizations that can accurately identify, assess, and manage the complexity inherent in projects are likely to gain important competitive advantages.