• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기상예측

Search Result 2,129, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Study of Rainfall-Runoff Variation by Grid Size and Critical Area (격자크기와 임계면적에 따른 홍수유출특성 변화)

  • Ahn, Seung-Seop;Lee, Jeung-Seok;Jung, Do-Joon;Han, Ho-Chul
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.523-532
    • /
    • 2007
  • This study utilized the 1/25,000 topographic map of the upper area from the Geum-ho watermark located at the middle of Geum-ho river from the National Geographic Information Institute. For the analysis, first, the influence of the size of critical area to the hydro topographic factors was examined changing grid size to $10m{\times}10m,\;30m{\times}30m\;and\;50m{\times}50m$, and the critical area for the formation of a river to $0.01km^2{\sim}0.50km^2$. It is known from the examination result of watershed morphology according to the grid size that the smaller grid size, the better resolution and accuracy. And it is found, from the analysis result of the degree of the river according to the minimum critical area for each grid size, that the grid size does not affect on the degree of the river, and the number of rivers with 2nd and higher degree does not show remarkable difference while there is big difference in the number of 1st degree rivers. From the results above, it is thought that the critical area of $0.15km^2{\sim}0.20km^2$ is appropriate for formation of a river being irrelevant to the grid size in extraction of hydro topographic parameters that are used in the runoff analysis model using topographic maps. Therefore, the GIUH model applied analysis results by use of the river level difference law proposed in this study for the explanation on the outflow response-changing characters according to the decision of a critical value of a minimum level difference river, showed that, since an ogival occurrence time and an ogival flow volume are very significant in a flood occurrence in case of not undertow facilities, the researcher could obtain a good result for the forecast of river outflow when considering a convenient application of the model and an easy acquisition of data, so it's judged that this model is proper as an algorism for the decision of a critical value of a river basin.

Modeling and Validation of Population Dynamics of the American Serpentine Leafminer (Liriomyza trifolii) Using Leaf Surface Temperatures of Greenhouses Cherry Tomatoes (방울토마토에서 잎 표면온도를 적용한 아메리카잎굴파리(Liriomyza trifolii) 개체군 밀도변동 모형작성 및 평가)

  • Park, Jung-Joon;Mo, Hyoung-Ho;Lee, Doo-Hyung;Shin, Key-Il;Cho, Ki-Jong
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.51 no.3
    • /
    • pp.235-243
    • /
    • 2012
  • Population dynamics of the American serpentine leafminer, Liriomyza trifolii (Burgess), were observed and modeled in order to compare the effects of air and tomato leaf temperatures inside a greenhouse using DYMEX model builder and simulator (pre-programed module based simulation programs developed by CSIRO, Australia). The DYMEX model simulator consisted of a series of modules with the parameters of temperature dependent development and oviposition models of L. trifolii were incorporated from pre-published data. Leaf surface temperatures of cherry tomato leaves (cv. 'Koko') were monitored according to three tomato plant positions (top, > 1.8 m above the ground level; middle, 0.9 - 1.2 m; bottom, 0.3 - 0.5 m) using an infrared temperature gun. Air temperature was monitored at the same three positions using a self-contained temperature logger. Data sets for the observed air temperature and average leaf surface temperatures were collected (top and bottom surfaces), and incorporated into the DYMEX simulator in order to compare the effects of air and leaf surface temperature on the population dynamics of L. trifolii. The initial population consisted of 50 eggs, which were laid by five female L. trifolii in early June. The number of L. trifolii larvae was counted by visual inspection of the tomato plants in order to verify the performance of DYMEX simulation. The egg, pupa, and adult stage of L. trifolii could not be counted due to its infeasible of visual inspection. A significant positive correlation between the observed and the predicted numbers of larvae was found when the leaf surface temperatures were incorporated into the DYMEX simulation (r = 0.97, p < 0.01), but no significant positive correlation was observed with air temperatures(r = 0.40, p = 0.18). This study demonstrated that the population dynamics of L. trifolii was affected greatly by the leaf temperatures, though to little discernible degree by the air temperatures, and thus the leaf surface temperature should be for a consideration in the management of L. trifolii within cherry tomato greenhouses.

Case Study on Characteristics of Heat Flux Exchange between Atmosphere and Ocean in the case of cP Expansion accompanying Snowfall over the Adjacent Sea of Jeju Island (제주연안에 강설을 수반하는 대륙성 한기단 확장 시 대기와 해양간의 열교환 특성 사례 연구)

  • Kim Kyoung-Bo;Pang Ig-Chan;Kim Kil-Yap;Kim Dong-Ho;Lee Jimi
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.26 no.5
    • /
    • pp.395-403
    • /
    • 2005
  • This study is focused on the relationship between snowfall and the Bowen’s Ratio (sensible heat flux/latent heat flux) through calculation of heat exchange between air and sea for snowfall events in Jeju Island from 1993 to 2003. The four weather stations for this study are located at Jeju, Seoguipo, Seongsanpo and Gosan in Jeju Island. In order to improve the reliability of snowfall forecast, the Bowen’s Ratio for snowfall, which includes influences from the atmosphere such as wind, is compared with the temperature difference between air and sea for snowfall. As a results, in the case for fresh snowfall, the minimum temperature differences between air and sea were 10, 12.3, 11.5, and $14.3^{\circ}C$ at Jeju, Seoguipo, Seongsanpo and Gosan, respectively. The probabilities of fresh snowfall were 26, 29, 13, and $23\%$, respectively, when the temperature differences were higher than the previous values. On the other hand, the minimum Bowen ratios were 0.59, 0.60, 0.65 and 0.65 at Jeju, Seoguipo, Seongsanpo and Gosan, respectively. The probabilities of fresh snowfall were 33, 70, 31 and $58\%$ respectively, when the Bowen ratio is higher than those. The reason for this is because the probability of fresh snowfall with the Bowen ratio was higher than the probability with temperature difference between air and sea. This result occurred because heat exchange by wind increased the probability of snowfall, along with the temperature difference between air and sea, and the Bowen ratio. Therefore, snowfall forecast of Jeju Island is significantly influenced by the sea, whereas forecast with Bowen ratio seems to have higher reliability than that with the temperature difference between air and sea. The data analysis for the ten-year period $(1993\~2002)$ showed that when each fresh snowfall was within 0.0 to 0.9cm, the average Bowen’s ratio was 0.63 to 0.67, and when each fresh snowfall was 1.0 to 4.9 cm, the average Bowen’s ratio was over 0.72. Therefore, fresh snowfall shows a proportional relationship with the Bowen’s ratio during snowfall.

Comparative Study on the Estimation of CO2 absorption Equilibrium in Methanol using PC-SAFT equation of state and Two-model approach. (메탄올의 이산화탄소 흡수평형 추산에 대한 PC-SAFT모델식과 Two-model approach 모델식의 비교연구)

  • Noh, Jaehyun;Park, Hoey Kyung;Kim, Dongsun;Cho, Jungho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.10
    • /
    • pp.136-152
    • /
    • 2017
  • The thermodynamic models, PC-SAFT (Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associated Fluid Theory) state equation and the Two-model approach liquid activity coefficient model NRTL (Non Random Two Liquid) + Henry + Peng-Robinson, for modeling the Rectisol process using methanol aqueous solution as the $CO_2$ removal solvent were compared. In addition, to determine the new binary interaction parameters of the PC-SAFT state equations and the Henry's constant of the two-model approach, absorption equilibrium experiments between carbon dioxide and methanol at 273.25K and 262.35K were carried out and regression analysis was performed. The accuracy of the newly determined parameters was verified through the regression results of the experimental data. These model equations and validated parameters were used to model the carbon dioxide removal process. In the case of using the two-model approach, the methanol solvent flow rate required to remove 99.00% of $CO_2$ was estimated to be approximately 43.72% higher, the cooling water consumption in the distillation tower was 39.22% higher, and the steam consumption was 43.09% higher than that using PC-SAFT EOS. In conclusion, the Rectisol process operating under high pressure was designed to be larger than that using the PC-SAFT state equation when modeled using the liquid activity coefficient model equation with Henry's relation. For this reason, if the quantity of low-solubility gas components dissolved in a liquid at a constant temperature is proportional to the partial pressure of the gas phase, the carbon dioxide with high solubility in methanol does not predict the absorption characteristics between methanol and carbon dioxide.

Variations in Temperature and Relative Humidity of Rough Rice in the Polypropylene Bulk Bag during Waiting Time for Drying (벌크 백 수확 벼의 건조대기 시간 중 온.습도 변화양상 구명)

  • Lee, Choon-Ki;Yun, Jong-Tag;Song, Jin;Jeong, Eung-Gi;Lee, Yu-Young;Kim, Wook-Han
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
    • /
    • v.55 no.4
    • /
    • pp.339-349
    • /
    • 2010
  • The uses of the polypropylene bulk bags having the loading capacities more than 500 kg are increasing in Korea recently as a storage container for rough rice. This study was performed to obtain the basic information on the changes of temperature and relative humidity in the bulk-bag-stored high moisture rough rice during waiting for drying. At the moisture content more than 22% on wet weight basis of paddy, the bulk-bag inside temperature rose up to more than $40^{\circ}C$ and then slid down during storage. For example, in case of Hwaseongbyeo, 26.5% moisture content of rough rice (MCRR) harvested at 46 days after heading (DAH) showed $54.5^{\circ}C$ of peak temperature at 66.8 hours after bulk-bag loading, 22.5% MCRR harvested at 52 DAH exhibited $42.0^{\circ}C$ at 81.1 hours, and 19.7% MCRR harvested at 55 DAH displayed $38.9^{\circ}C$ at 119.0 hours. There were a good linear relationship between peak temperatures of bulk-bag inside and moisture contents of paddy ($r^2$=0.89 in 2005, and 0.87 in 2006), while the slope and intercept of the linear regression equation was affected by the environmental conditions such as ambient temperatures and microbial flora. The peak temperatures increased with the rate of about $2.74-3.33^{\circ}C$ per every 1% increase of moisture content at higher moisture contents of paddy than 19%. The relative humidity varied depending on bulk-bag inside temperature and rough rice moisture content, and showed the range of 94.2% to 99.9% in the central point of the bulk-bag. The results suggested that a rapid drying treatment as soon as possible was needed to produce a good quality of rice when the paddy of high moisture more than 22% on wet basis was harvested in a bulk-bag especially at high ambient temperature.

Study on the Consequence Effect Analysis & Process Hazard Review at Gas Release from Hydrogen Fluoride Storage Tank (최근 불산 저장탱크에서의 가스 누출시 공정위험 및 결과영향 분석)

  • Ko, JaeSun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.449-461
    • /
    • 2013
  • As the hydrofluoric acid leak in Gumi-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do or hydrochloric acid leak in Ulsan, Gyeongsangnam-do demonstrated, chemical related accidents are mostly caused by large amounts of volatile toxic substances leaking due to the damages of storage tank or pipe lines of transporter. Safety assessment is the most important concern because such toxic material accidents cause human and material damages to the environment and atmosphere of the surrounding area. Therefore, in this study, a hydrofluoric acid leaked from a storage tank was selected as the study example to simulate the leaked substance diffusing into the atmosphere and result analysis was performed through the numerical Analysis and diffusion simulation of ALOHA(Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres). the results of a qualitative evaluation of HAZOP (Hazard Operability)was looked at to find that the flange leak, operation delay due to leakage of the valve and the hose, and toxic gas leak were danger factors. Possibility of fire from temperature, pressure and corrosion, nitrogen supply overpressure and toxic leak from internal corrosion of tank or pipe joints were also found to be high. ALOHA resulting effects were a little different depending on the input data of Dense Gas Model, however, the wind direction and speed, rather than atmospheric stability, played bigger role. Higher wind speed affected the diffusion of contaminant. In term of the diffusion concentration, both liquid and gas leaks resulted in almost the same $LC_{50}$ and ALOHA AEGL-3(Acute Exposure Guidline Level) values. Each scenarios showed almost identical results in ALOHA model. Therefore, a buffer distance of toxic gas can be determined by comparing the numerical analysis and the diffusion concentration to the IDLH(Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health). Such study will help perform the risk assessment of toxic leak more efficiently and be utilized in establishing community emergency response system properly.

Characteristics of Patients Who Need Hypnotics on the Night before Elective Surgery (수면전일 수면제를 필요로 하는 환자들의 특성)

  • Lee, Soo-In;Yoon, Jin-Sang;Lee, Hyung-Young
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.172-180
    • /
    • 1997
  • Objects : This study was carried out to investigate characteristics of patients who need hypnotics on the night before elective surgery as well as contributing variables for the necessity of hypnotics. Methods : After reviewing the clinical charts of patients who were scheduled to receive surgery by general anesthesia the following day, researchers had semi structural interviews with patients. In addition, Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory(SSTAI), Beck Depression Inventory(BDI), Zung's Self-Rating Pain and Distress Scale(ZPDS), and Presleep and Postsleep Questionnaires were administered to patients. A total of 167 patients, who gave reliable information, were divided into two groups based on subjective judgement regarding the necessity for hypnotics on the night before surgery; 29 eligibles for hypnotics and 138 non-eligibles for hypnotics. Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients, some possible factors affecting sleep, psychological characteristics of patients and daytime status and nighttime sleep before surgery were compared between the two groups. In addition, discriminant function analysis was done to find the variables which would best discriminate among patients who differ in terms of necessity for hypnotics on the night before surgery. Results : There was no difference in demographic and clinical characteristics between the two groups; however, the satisfaction level with ward environment was significantly lower in the eligible group for hypnotics than the non-eligible group. Psychologically, the eligible group for hypnotics, compared to the non-eligible group, showed significantly more severe depression, pain, and distress; whereas anxiety level was not different between the two groups. For nighttime sleep before surgery, the eligible group for hypnotics, compared to the non-eligible group, expected poorer sleep before retiring and in fact, reported poorer sleep the following morning. In discriminant function analysis, 'expectation for sleep' and 'pain and distress' were the most potent contributors to discriminate the necessity of hypnotics. Conclusion : For the improvement of the patient's sleep on the night before elective surgery, giving hypnotics and/or analgesics should be determined by patient's opinion about the necessity of the drugs rather than by the therapist's own judgement or any other objective indices.

  • PDF

A Study on Correlation between El-Nino and Winter Temperature and Precipitation in Korea (엘니뇨와 한국의 겨울 기온 및 강수량과의 상관에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Woo-Ki;Yang, Jin-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.151-164
    • /
    • 1998
  • I analyzed the correlation between El-Nino phenomenon and our country's temperature and precipitation laying the stress on the anomaly, and the result of this analysis is as follows: (1) The extraction of the occurrences of El-Nino at the place of sea surface around Nino.3 which was known as the sea area under observation for El-Nino reveals that there are 9 years (1969, 1970, 1973, 1977, 1987, 1992, 1995, 1998) when the temperature anomaly in January is more than 1.0 during the period of research years ($1969{\sim}1998$). (2) The tendency of change of sea surface temperature around Nino.3 and that of our country are about the same, but the anomaly of Pusan and Inchon was much greater than that of Jangki in the East Coast. (3) The anomaly of sea surface temperature around Nino.3 and that of the ground temperature showed the similar changing tendency, the temperature of our country has something to do with that of sea surface as the correlation of ground temperature with the temperature of sea surface showed 0.31. Anomaly warm winter has something to do with El-Nino because the temperature of our country was high when El-Nino phenomenon appeared. (4) As for the precipitation, we can see that it has generally increased after 1989 when the phenomenon of warm climate was intense than before that year. But as we study the change of anomaly, the precipitation has less correlation in comparison with the ground temperature. The precipitation in 1973, 1983 and 1987 which were El-Nino years was correlated with El-Nino. While the change of sea surface temperature has showed a tendency of plus(+)increase since 1990, the precipitation has showed a tendency of minus (-)decrease. Therefore it seems that the temperature of sea surface has little correlation with the amount of rainfall.

  • PDF

Assessment of climate change impact on aquatic ecology health indices in Han river basin using SWAT and random forest (SWAT 및 random forest를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 수생태계 건강성 지수 영향 평가)

  • Woo, So Young;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.10
    • /
    • pp.863-874
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.

Wintering Population Change of the Cranes according to the Climatic Factors in Cheorwon, Korea: Effect of the Snow Cover Range and Period by Using MODIS Satellite Data (기후요인에 의한 철원지역 두루미류 월동개체수 변화 - MODIS 위성영상을 이용한 눈 덮임 범위와 지속기간의 영향 -)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwa;Lee, Ki-Sup;Jung, Hwa-Young;Kim, Hwa-Jung;Hur, Wee-Haeng;Kim, Jin-Han;Park, Chong-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.48 no.3
    • /
    • pp.176-187
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, we hypothesized that the size of wintering crane population would change due to the climate factors. We assumed that wintering population size would differ by climate values in January, which is the coldest period in year. Especially, White-naped cranes were able to choose wintering site between Cheorwon and other alternative place where snow coverage had low influence, differing from Red crowned cranes. For this reason, we predicted the population size of White-naped cranes would fluctuate according to the extent of snow coverage in Cheorwon. Therefore we used snow coverage data based on MODIS and climate data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) that are generally used. We analyzed the crane's population size in Cheorwon in January from 2002 to 2014. The temperature in the Cheorwon increased from 2002 to wintering period in 2007~ 2008 and went down, showing the lowest temperature in 2011~ 2012. With this phenomenon, warmth index showed the similar pattern with temperature. Amount of newly accumulated snow (the amount of snow that fallen from 0:01 am to 11:29 pm in a day) was low after 2002, but rapidly increased in 2010~ 2011 and 2011~ 2012. The area of snow coverage rapidly declined from 2002 to 2005~ 2006 but suddenly expanded in wintering period in 2009~ 2010 and 2010~ 2011. Wintering population size of the White-naped cranes decreased as snow coverage area increased in January and the highest correlation was found between them, compared to the other climatic factors. However, the number of individuals of Red crowned cranes had little relationship with general climate factors including snow cover range. Therefore it seems that population size of the Red crowned crane varied by factors related with habitat selection such as secure roosting site and area of foraging place, not by climatic factors. In multiple regression analysis, wintering population of White-naped cranes showed significant relationship with logarithmic value of snow cover range and its period. Therefore, it suggests that the population size of the White-naped crane was affected by snow cover range n wintering period and this was because it was hard for them to find out rice grains which are their main food items, buried in snow cover. The population size variation in White-naped cranes was caused by some individuals which left Cheorwon for Izumi where snow cover had little influence on them. The wintering population in Izumi and Cheorwon had negative correlation, implying they were mutually related.