• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기대손실파괴확률

Search Result 5, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

A Study on Simple Methodology of Distruction Effects Analysis 3 Dimensional Building Target's by Weapon Systems (무기체계 3차원 건물표적에 대한 간이 파괴효과분석 방법론 연구)

  • Park, Jinho;Choi, Sangyeong;Kim, Yeongho
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.89-96
    • /
    • 2015
  • In order to use missiles more effectively, assessing methodologies was advanced about weapon effects for various target types. We tried to find out the most effective analysis methodologies for missiles to attack 3 dimensional building target's and analyzed adaptedness as an assessing methodology. There are EFD (Expected Fractional Damage) and SSPD (Single Sortie Probability of Damage) methodologies to assess building target damage. In order to calculate effectiveness we used input parameter such as size of the target and CEP (Circular Error Probable), MAE_bldg (Mean Area of Effects for Building) of weapons and impact angle as encountering condition between the target and the missile. We compared EFD and SSPD, in order to analyze adaptedness as a effective methodology by CEP and MAE. The result was that EFD methodology was more adaptive to assess 3 dimensional building targets by missile systems than SSPD.

Optimum Service Life Management Based on Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (확률론적 생애주기비용-이익분석 기반 수명관리 최적화 기법)

  • Kim, Sunyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.19-25
    • /
    • 2016
  • Engineering structures including civil infrastructures require a life-cycle cost and benefit during their service lives. The service life of a structure can be extended through appropriate inspection and maintenance actions. In general, this service life extension requires more life-cycle cost and cumulative benefit. For this reason, structure managers need to make a rational decision regarding the service life management considering both the cost and benefit simultaneously. In this paper, the probabilistic decision tool to determine the optimal service life based on cost-benefit analysis is presented. This decision tool requires an estimation of the time-dependent effective cost-benefit under uncertainty to formulate the optimization problem. The effective cost-benefit is expressed by the difference between the cumulative benefit and life-cycle cost of a deteriorating structure over time. The objective of the optimization problem is maximizing the effective cost-benefit, and the associated solutions are the optimal service life and maintenance interventions. The decision tool presented in this paper can be applied to any deteriorating engineering structure.

Study on Optimum Design for Embankment Construction on Soft Ground Treated by SCP (SCP개량지반상에 성토시공 시 최적설계에 관한 연구)

  • Chae, Jong-gil;Park, Yeong-Mog;Jung, MinSu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.29 no.6C
    • /
    • pp.251-258
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this study, the optimum design conditions for embankment construction on soft clay layer improved by soil compaction pile (SCP) are discussed by comparing the practical design method to the reliability design which is based on the loss function and advanced first order second moment (AFOSM) method. The results are summarized as follows; 1) the relationship between safety factor and failure probability becomes heavy exponentially, failure probability decreases rapidly till 1% approximately until safety factor is smaller than 1.2 and after then, failure probability decrease gradually along the increase of the safety factor. The design safety factor of 1.2 may be the critical value that has been established on considering both relationships appropriately, 2) the safety factor of 1.15 at the minimum expected total cost is a little smaller than the design safety factor of 1.2 and the failure probability is about 1%, 3) the sensitivities of the ratio of stress share and the internal friction angle of sand is larger than the variables related the undrained shear strength of soft layer. This result means that the distribution characteristic of n and ${\phi}$ influences on the stability analysis considerably and they should be considered necessarily on stability analysis of embankment on soft layer improved by SCP, 4) new failure points of the input variables at the design safety factor of 1.2(below failure probability of 0.1~0.3%) is far 1~2 times of standard deviation from the initial design values of themselves.

A Study on the Artillery shell's EFD based on Charge (장약에 기반한 포병탄 EFD 산출 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyunsik;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-21
    • /
    • 2019
  • Modeling and simulation(M&S) method are used to quantify the weapon effectiveness. The weapon effectiveness of artillery shells was also partially studied, but there was a lack of research on the effects of the choice of charge. Therefore, this paper presents an artillery shell's EFD(Expected Fractional Damage) calculation model based on the charge and identifies differences in the weapon effectiveness of 3D building targets according to the selection of the charge. First, the input data of the calculation model was collected and a required number of shoots was calculated to achieve the desired effects using the proposed model. Finally, a paired sample t-test was conducted to verify the proposed model.

Development of Structural Reliability Analysis Platform of FERUM-MIDAS for Reliability-Based Safety Evaluation of Bridges (신뢰도 기반 교량 안전성 평가를 위한 구조신뢰성 해석 플랫폼 FERUM-MIDAS의 개발)

  • Lee, Seungjun;Lee, Young-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.11
    • /
    • pp.884-891
    • /
    • 2020
  • The collapse of bridges can cause massive casualties and economic losses. Therefore, it is thus essential to evaluate the structural safety of bridges. For this task, structural reliability analysis, considering various bridge-related uncertainty factors, is often used. This paper proposes a new computational platform to perform structural reliability analysis for bridges and evaluate their structural safety under various loading conditions. For this purpose, a software package of reliability analysis, Finite Element Reliability Using MATLAB (FERUM), was integrated with MIDAS/CIVIL, which is a widely-used commercial software package specialized for bridges. Furthermore, a graphical user interface (GUI) control module has been added to FERUM to overcome the limitations of software operation. In this study, the proposed platform was applied to a simple frame structure, and the analysis results of the FORM (First-Order Reliability Method) and MCS (Monte Carlo simulation), which are representative reliability analysis methods, were compared. The proposed platform was verified by confirming that the calculated failure probability difference was less than 5%. In addition, the structural safety of a pre-stressed concrete (PSC) bridge was evaluated considering the KL-510 vehicle model. The proposed new structural reliability analysis platform is expected to enable an effective reliability-based safety evaluation of bridges.