• Title/Summary/Keyword: 국지기상예보

Search Result 98, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Construction of Flood Routing Model in Milyang River using HEC-RAS Model (HEC-RAS 모형을 이용한 밀양강 홍수추적모형 구축)

  • Kim, Sang Ho;Kim, Ji Sung;Kim, Won;Choi, Kyu Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2015.05a
    • /
    • pp.340-340
    • /
    • 2015
  • 기상이변에 따른 강우강도의 증가는 국지성 집중호우로 나타나게 되고, 이러한 강우양상은 하천에서의 홍수위 증가로 나타나 여러 가지 하천재해가 발생하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 대하천으로 유입되는 지류 합류부에서의 수리학적 특성을 살펴보기 위한 사전 연구로 비교적 규모가 큰 지류하천에 대한 부정류 모의를 수행할 수 있는 홍수추적모형을 구축하였다. 대상 하천은 지류 내 하도가 루프의 형태를 띠고 있는 밀양강을 대상으로 선정하였다. 낙동강의 제1지류인 밀양강에서 낙동강 합류부로부터 30.74 km 상류에 위치한 밀양강의 상동수위관측소를 상류단으로 선정하고 낙동강과 합류하는 밀양강 하류단을 대상구간으로 선정하였다. 상류 경계단인 상동수위관측소에서 측정된 수위자료는 유량자료로 환산하여 상류단 경계조건으로 사용하였으며, 하류단 경계조건은 낙동강 본류의 수산교 수위관측소와 삼랑진 수위관측소에서 측정된 수위자료를 밀양강 합류부까지의 거리 보정을 통해 밀양강 하류단의 수위자료로 사용하였다. 그림 1은 밀양강의 상동수위관측소에서부터 낙동강 합류부까지 구간에 대한 모식도를 나타내고 있으며, 그림 2는 밀양1 지점에 대한 모의결과를 나타내고 있다. 단장천 유입 이후 밀양강 본류가 두 개의 루프형으로 분류되었다가 다시 합류하는 하도의 형태를 가지고 있어 보다 복잡한 검증과정이 요구되었다. 본 연구에서 구축된 밀양강에 대한 수리학적 해석모형은 지류 합류부에서의 배수영향에 의한 수리특성을 분석하는데 활용될 것이다.

  • PDF

A Study on the flood risk evaluation standards by Local Authorities (행정구역 홍수위험 판단기준 설정 방안 연구)

  • CHoi, Cheon Kyu;Kim, Kyung Tak;Choi, Yun Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2022.05a
    • /
    • pp.103-103
    • /
    • 2022
  • 최근 우리나라는 기후변화의 영향에 의해 국지적으로 집중호우가 발생하고 있으며, 홍수로 인해지역적으로 사회적, 경제적 피해가 증가하고 있다. 이에 사전에 홍수로 인한 피해에 대비하고자 기상청에서는 호우특보를 발령하고 있으며, 환경부에서는 하천을 중심으로 홍수특보를 발령하고 있다. 그러나 호우특보는 전국을 동일한 판단기준을 활용하고 있으며, 홍수특보는 하천 중심으로 홍수에 대한 위험을 예보를 제공하여 사전에 행정구역에서 홍수에 대비하는 데에는 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 사전에 홍수에 대비하기 위한 방법으로 과거 홍수피해 자료를 활용하여 홍수위험을 평가하고, 이를 활용하여 재난인자인 강우량과 홍수량에 대한 판단 기준을 행정구역별로 제시하고자 하였다. 홍수위험 판단 기준을 설정하기 위해서 과거 홍수피해 사상별 강우량, 홍수피해액, 홍수피해 현상 등을 조사하였으며, 홍수피해 현상은 각종 기사 및 뉴스 등을 활용하여 수집하였다. 강우량 기준은 행정구역 내 존재하는 강우관측소 자료를 활용하였으며, 홍수량 기준 적용 지점은 담당 공무원의 의견과 과거 홍수피해 이력이 있는 지역에 대해 설정하였다. 각 홍수위험 판단기준은 위험정도에 따라 4개로 구분하여 제시하였다. 향후 본 연구에서 제시된 홍수위험 판단기준은 사전에 홍수위험을 인지하고 대비하기 위한 대응단계 설정에 활용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

  • PDF

Real-time flood prediction applying random forest regression model in urban areas (랜덤포레스트 회귀모형을 적용한 도시지역에서의 실시간 침수 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Lee, Yeon Su;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.spc1
    • /
    • pp.1119-1130
    • /
    • 2021
  • Urban flooding caused by localized heavy rainfall with unstable climate is constantly occurring, but a system that can predict spatial flood information with weather forecast has not been prepared yet. The worst flood situation in urban area can be occurred with difficulties of structural measures such as river levees, discharge capacity of urban sewage, storage basin of storm water, and pump facilities. However, identifying in advance the spatial flood information can have a decisive effect on minimizing flood damage. Therefore, this study presents a methodology that can predict the urban flood map in real-time by using rainfall data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the results of two-dimensional flood analysis and random forest (RF) regression model. The Ujeong district in Ulsan metropolitan city, which the flood is frequently occurred, was selected for the study area. The RF regression model predicted the flood map corresponding to the 50 mm, 80 mm, and 110 mm rainfall events with 6-hours duration. And, the predicted results showed 63%, 80%, and 67% goodness of fit compared to the results of two-dimensional flood analysis model. It is judged that the suggested results of this study can be utilized as basic data for evacuation and response to urban flooding that occurs suddenly.

Research on flood risk forecast method using weather ensemble prediction system in urban region (앙상블 기상예측 자료를 활용한 도시지역의 홍수위험도 예측 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Youngje;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.52 no.10
    • /
    • pp.753-761
    • /
    • 2019
  • Localized heavy storm is one of the major causes of flood damage in urban regions. According to the recent disaster statistics in South Korea, the frequency of urban flood is increasing more frequently, and the scale is also increasing. However, localized heavy storm is difficult to predict, making it difficult for local government officials to deal with floods. This study aims to construct a Flood risk matrix (FRM) using ensemble weather prediction data and to assess its applicability as a means of reducing damage by securing time for such urban flood response. The FRM is a two-dimensional matrix of potential impacts (X-axis) representing flood risk and likelihood (Y-axis) representing the occurrence probability of dangerous weather events. To this end, a regional FRM was constructed using historical flood damage records and probability precipitation data for basic municipality in Busan and Daegu. Applicability of the regional FRMs was assessed by applying the LENS data of the Korea Meteorological Administration on past heavy rain events. As a result, it was analyzed that the flood risk could be predicted up to 3 days ago, and it would be helpful to reduce the damage by securing the flood response time in practice.

A Numerical Study on the Characteristics of Flows and Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Distributions in an Urban Area Using a Multi-scale Model: Part I - Analysis of Detailed Flows (다중규모 모델을 이용한 도시 지역 흐름과 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 분포 특성 연구: Part I - 상세 흐름 분석)

  • Park, Soo-Jin;Choi, Wonsik;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.36 no.6_3
    • /
    • pp.1643-1652
    • /
    • 2020
  • To investigate the characteristics of detailed flows in a building-congested district, we coupled a computation fluid dynamics (CFD) model to the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS), a current operational numerical weather prediction model of the Korea Meteorological Administration. For realistic numerical simulations, we used the meteorological variables such as wind speeds and directions and potential temperatures predicted by LDAPS as the initial and boundary conditions of the CFD model. We trilinearly interpolated the horizontal wind components of LDAPS to provide the initial and boudnary wind velocities to the CFD model. The trilinearly interpolated potential temperatures of LDAPS is converted to temperatures at each grid point of the CFD model. We linearly interpolated the horizontal wind components of LDAPS to provide the initial and boundary wind velocities to the CFD model. The linearly interpolated potential temperatures of LDAPS are converted to temperatures at each grid point of the CFD model. We validated the simulated wind speeds and directions against those measured at the PKNU-SONIC station. The LDAPS-CFD model reproduced similar wind directions and wind speeds measured at the PKNU-SONIC station. At 07 LST on 22 June 2020, the inflow was east-north-easterly. Flow distortion by buildings resulted in the east-south-easterly at the PKNU-SONIC station, which was the similar wind direction to the measured one. At 19 LST when the inflow was southeasterly, the LDAPS-CFD model simulated southeasterly (similar to the measured wind direction) at the PKNU-SONIC station.

Analysis of Stability Indexes for Lightning by Using Upper Air Observation Data over South Korea (남한에서 낙뢰발생시 근접 고층기상관측 자료를 이용한 안정도 지수 분석)

  • Eom, Hyo-Sik;Suh, Myoung-Seok
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.467-482
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this study, characteristics of various stability indexes (SI) and environmental parameters (EP) for the lightning are analysed by using 5 upper air observatories (Osan, Gwangju, Jeju, Pohang, and Baengnyeongdo) for the years 2002-2006 over South Korea. The analysed SI and EP are the lifted index, K-index, Showalter stability index, total precipitable water, mixing ratio, wind shear and temperature of lifting condensation level. The lightning data occurred on the range of -2 hr~+1 hr and within 100 km based on the launch time of rawinsonde and observing location are selected. In general, summer averaged temperature and mixing ratio of lower troposphere for the lightning cases are higher about 1 K and $1{\sim}2gkg^{-1}$ than no lightning cases, respectively. The Box-Whisker plot shows that the range of various SI and EP values for lightning and no lightning cases are well separated but overlapping of SI and EP values between lightning and no lightning are not a little. The optimized threshold values for the detection of lightning are determined objectively based on the highest Heidke skill socre (HSS), which is the most favorable validation parameter for the rare event, such as lightning, by using the simulation of SI and EP threshold values. Although the HSS is not high (0.15~0.30) and the number and values of selected SI and EP are dependent on geographic location, the new threshold values can be used as a supplementary tool for the detection or forecast of lightning over South Korea.

A Thermal Time - Based Phenology Estimation in Kimchi Cabbage (Brassica campestris L. ssp. pekinensis) (온도시간 기반의 배추 생육단계 추정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.333-339
    • /
    • 2015
  • A thermal time-based phenology model of Kimchi cabbage was developed by using the field observed growth and temperature data for the purpose of accurately predicting heading and harvest dates among diverse cropping systems. In this model the lifecycle of Kimchi cabbage was separated into the growth stage and the heading stage, while the growth amount of each stage was calculated by optimal mathematical functions describing the response curves for different temperature regimes. The parameter for individual functions were derived from the 2012-2014 crop status report collected from seven farms with different cropping systems located in major Kimchi cabbage production area of South Korea (i.e., alpine Gangwon Province for the summer cultivation and coastal plains in Jeonnam Province for the autumn cultivation). For the model validation, we used an independent data set consisting of local temperature data restored by a geospatial correction scheme and observed harvest dates from 17 farms. The results showed that the root mean square error averaged across the location and time period (2012-2014) was 5.3 days for the harvest date. This model is expected to enhance the utilization of the Korea Meteorological Administration's daily temperature data in issuing agrometeorological forecasts for developmental stages of Kimchi cabbage grown widely in South Korea.

A Numerical Study on the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Building Fires Using GIS and a CFD Model (GIS와 전산유체역학 모델을 이용한 기상 조건이 건물 화재에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Mun, Da-Som;Kim, Min-Ji;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.3
    • /
    • pp.395-408
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, we investigated the effects of wind speed and direction on building fires using GIS and a CFD model. We conducted numerical simulations for a fire event that occurred at an apartment in Ulsan on October 8, 2020. For realistic simulations, we used the profiles of wind speeds and directions and temperatures predicted by the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS). First, using the realistic boundary conditions, we conducted two numerical simulations (a control run, CNTL, considered the building fire and the other assumed the same conditions as CNTL except for the building fire). Then, we conducted the additional four simulations with the same conditions as CNTL except for the inflow wind speeds and direction. When the ignition point was located on the windward of the building, strong updraft induced by the fire had a wide impact on the building roof and downwind region. The evacuation floor (15th floor) played a role to spread fire to the downwind wall of the building. The weaker the wind speed, the narrower fire spread around the ignition point, but the higher the flame above the building reaches. When the ignition point was located on the downwind wall of the building, the flame didn't spread to the upwind wall of the building. The results showed that wind speed and direction were important for the flow and temperature (or flame) distribution around a firing building.

Korean Ocean Forecasting System: Present and Future (한국의 해양예측, 오늘과 내일)

  • Kim, Young Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Lee, Jun-Soo;Byun, Do-Seong;Kang, Kiryong;Kim, Young-Gyu;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.89-103
    • /
    • 2013
  • National demands for the ocean forecasting system have been increased to support economic activity and national safety including search and rescue, maritime defense, fisheries, port management, leisure activities and marine transportation. Further, the ocean forecasting has been regarded as one of the key components to improve the weather and climate forecasting. Due to the national demands as well as improvement of the technology, the ocean forecasting systems have been established among advanced countries since late 1990. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) significantly contributed to the achievement and world-wide spreading of ocean forecasting systems. Four stages of GODAE were summarized. Goal, vision, development history and research on ocean forecasting system of the advanced countries such as USA, France, UK, Italy, Norway, Australia, Japan, China, who operationally use the systems, were examined and compared. Strategies of the successfully established ocean forecasting systems can be summarized as follows: First, concentration of the national ability is required to establish successful operational ocean forecasting system. Second, newly developed technologies were shared with other countries and they achieved mutual and cooperative development through the international program. Third, each participating organization has devoted to its own task according to its role. In Korean society, demands on the ocean forecasting system have been also extended. Present status on development of the ocean forecasting system and long-term plan of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration), NFRDI (National Fisheries Research & Development Institute), ADD (Agency for Defense Development) were surveyed. From the history of the pre-established systems in other countries, the cooperation among the relevant Korean organizations is essential to establish the accurate and successful ocean forecasting system, and they can form a consortium. Through the cooperation, we can (1) set up high-quality ocean forecasting models and systems, (2) efficiently invest and distribute financial resources without duplicate investment, (3) overcome lack of manpower for the development. At present stage, it is strongly requested to concentrate national resources on developing a large-scale operational Korea Ocean Forecasting System which can produce open boundary and initial conditions for local ocean and climate forecasting models. Once the system is established, each organization can modify the system for its own specialized purpose. In addition, we can contribute to the international ocean prediction community.

A Spatial Interpolation Model for Daily Minimum Temperature over Mountainous Regions (산악지대의 일 최저기온 공간내삽모형)

  • Yun Jin-Il;Choi Jae-Yeon;Yoon Young-Kwan;Chung Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.2 no.4
    • /
    • pp.175-182
    • /
    • 2000
  • Spatial interpolation of daily temperature forecasts and observations issued by public weather services is frequently required to make them applicable to agricultural activities and modeling tasks. In contrast to the long term averages like monthly normals, terrain effects are not considered in most spatial interpolations for short term temperatures. This may cause erroneous results in mountainous regions where the observation network hardly covers full features of the complicated terrain. We developed a spatial interpolation model for daily minimum temperature which combines inverse distance squared weighting and elevation difference correction. This model uses a time dependent function for 'mountain slope lapse rate', which can be derived from regression analyses of the station observations with respect to the geographical and topographical features of the surroundings including the station elevation. We applied this model to interpolation of daily minimum temperature over the mountainous Korean Peninsula using 63 standard weather station data. For the first step, a primitive temperature surface was interpolated by inverse distance squared weighting of the 63 point data. Next, a virtual elevation surface was reconstructed by spatially interpolating the 63 station elevation data and subtracted from the elevation surface of a digital elevation model with 1 km grid spacing to obtain the elevation difference at each grid cell. Final estimates of daily minimum temperature at all the grid cells were obtained by applying the calculated daily lapse rate to the elevation difference and adjusting the inverse distance weighted estimates. Independent, measured data sets from 267 automated weather station locations were used to calculate the estimation errors on 12 dates, randomly selected one for each month in 1999. Analysis of 3 terms of estimation errors (mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error) indicates a substantial improvement over the inverse distance squared weighting.

  • PDF