• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.145-152
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• 2002

Real-time queueing information and/or predictive queue built-up information can be a good criterion in selecting travel options, such as routes, both for users, and for operators in operating transportation system. Provided properly, it will be a key information for reducing traffic congestion. Also, it helps drivers be able to select optimal roues and operators be able to manage the system effectively as a whole. To produce the predictive queue information, this paper proposes a predictive model for estimating and predicting queue lengths, mainly based on Kalman Filter. It has a structure of having state space model for predicting queue length which is set as observational variable. It has been applied for the Namsan first tunnel and the application results indicate that the model is quite reasonable in its efficacy and can be applicable for various ATIS system architecture. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.11a
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• pp.275-277
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• 2018

선박 및 해상교통관제에 있어서 교통 혼잡구역에 대한 선박교통밀도 예측은 선박충돌사고 예방에 중요하다. 선박 교통밀도 예측정보는 사전에 진입하는 선박들에게 속력조정, 우회항로 이용 등 사전 조치가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 해상 선박교통상황을 딥러닝 네트워크에 학습한 주의구역 선박교통류 예측 모델(Ship Traffic Extraction Network, STENet)을 제안하여 주의구역의 선박교통류 예측을 수행하고자 한다. STENet 모델 학습을 위해 여수해역 AIS 데이터를 전처리하고, 생성된 입력(해상교통상황)-출력(주의구역 교통밀도) 쌍 데이터를 적용하여 STENet 모델을 학습하였다. 학습된 모델을 이용하여 선박교통류 예측을 한 결과, 중기예측은 표준 절대 오차(mean absolute error)가 0.4-0.5척이 였으며, 장기예측은 0.7-0.8척의 오차로 기존의 Dead Reckoning에 의한 방법보다 50% 이상 교통밀도 예측성능이 향상 되었다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.1312-1318
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• 2006

One of the common services of telematics is the car navigation that finds the shortest path from source to target. Until now, some routing algorithms of the car navigation do not consider the real-time traffic information and use the static shortest path algorithm. In this paper, we prosed the method to predict the traffic flow in the future. This prediction combines two methods. The former is an accumulated speed pattern, which means the analysis results for all past speeds of each road by classfying the same day and the same time inteval. The latter is the Kalman filter. We predicted the traffic flows of each segment by combining the two methods. By experiment, we showed our algorithm gave better precise predicition than only using accumulated speed pattern that is used commonly. The result can be applied to the car navigation to support a dynamic shortest path. In addition, it can give users the travel information to avoid the traffic congestion areas.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.17-18
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• 2019

이 논문에서는 운전자들의 궤적을 예측하여 해당 도로의 돌발 이벤트와 같은 교통정보를 실시간으로 제공하기 위한 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위해서 운전자의 위치 데이터 수집 및 교통 정보 제공의 처리율을 높일 수 있는 이동 객체 및 교통 정보 관리 방법을 제안한다.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.44-55
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• 2013

Intelligent transportation systems allow us to have valuable opportunities for collecting reliable wide-area coverage traffic and weather data. Significant efforts have been made in many countries to apply these data. This study identifies the critical points for classifying rain intensity by analyzing the relationship between rainfall and the amount of speed reduction. Then, traffic prediction performance by rain intensity level is evaluated using relative errors. The results show that critical points are 0.4mm/5min and 0.8mm/5min for classifying rain intensity (slight, moderate, and heavy rain). The best prediction performance is observable when previous five-block speed data is used as inputs under normal weather conditions. On the other hand, previous two or three-block speed data is used as inputs under rainy weather conditions. The outcomes of this study support the development of more reliable traffic information for providing advanced traffic information service.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.230-237
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• 2018

Purpose: In Korea, traffic information is collected in real time as part of Intelligent Transportation System to enhance efficiency of road operation. However, traffic information based on real-time data is different from the traffic situation the driver will experience. Method: In this study, forecasts were made for future highway traffic by day and time period by adjusting the Archived data reference days to 3, 5 and 10 days based on existing traffic Archived data. Results: Fewer days of reference in the past showed smaller errors. The prediction of Monday based on five past histories showed greater errors than the 10 past histories, as the traffic flow on the sixth Monday of 2016 was somewhat different from the usual holiday. Conclution: This study shows that less of the reference days of the past history when estimating traffic volume, the more accurate the data of the traffic history of the event can be used on special days.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2021.01a
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• pp.163-164
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• 2021

본 논문에서는 날씨와 상관관계를 갖는 교통사고에 대한 예측을 진행하는 Web Site 개발을 제안한다. 날씨에 영향을 받는 교통사고에 대한 일일 사망자 수, 교통사고 발생률의 각각의 예측값을 딥러닝 모델을 이용한다. 위의 모델을 작성하기 위하여 본 논문에서는 Anaconda 기반의 Jupyter Notebook에서 Python Tensorflow 모델을 작성하여 테스트하고, 만들어진 모델을 웹 사이트에서 불러오기 위해 Python 기반 Flask Web Framework를 통하여 웹 사이트를 개발한다. 개발된 웹 사이트는 사용자들은 Web Site에 날씨 정보를 입력하여 교통사고 발생률을 예측하고 볼 수 있다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.141-157
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• 1999

This paper first reviews current practices of traveler information providing and provides some perspectives regarding the possible near term milestones in traveler information providing. Then, reviews of four types of prediction models: 1) dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model; 2) statistical model; 3) simulation model; and 4) heuristic model are described in the sense that various prediction models are needed to support providing predictive traveler information in the near future. Next, the functional requirements and capabilities of the four types of prediction models are discussed and summarized along with some advantages and disadvantages of these models with reference to short-term travel time prediction. Furthermore, a comprehensive prediction procedure, which combines the four types of prediction models, is presented, together with the data requirements for each type of prediction model.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.1-18
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• 2023

With the recent developments in big data and deep learning, a variety of traffic information is collected widely and used for traffic operations. In particular, long short-term memory (LSTM) is used in the field of traffic information prediction with time series characteristics. Since trends, seasons, and cycles differ due to the nature of time series data input for an LSTM, a trial-and-error method based on characteristics of the data is essential for prediction models based on time series data in order to find hyperparameters. If a methodology is established to find suitable hyperparameters, it is possible to reduce the time spent in constructing high-accuracy models. Therefore, in this study, a traffic information prediction model is developed based on highway vehicle detection system (VDS) data and LSTM, and an impact assessment is conducted through changes in the LSTM evaluation indicators for each hyperparameter. In addition, a methodology for finding hyperparameters suitable for predicting highway traffic information in the transportation field is presented.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.988-995
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• 2009

One of the most popular services of Telematics is a shortest path finding from a starting point to a destination. In this paper, a dynamic shortest path finding system with forecasting result of traffic flow in the future was developed and various experiments to verify the performance of our system using real-time traffic information has been conducted. Traffic forecasting has been done by a prediction system using Bayesian network. It searched a dynamic shortest path, a static shortest path and an accumulated shortest path for the same starting point and destination and calculated their travel time to compare with one of its real shortest path. From the experiment, over 75%, the travel time of dynamic shortest paths is the closest to one of their real shortest paths than one of static shortest paths and accumulated shortest paths. Therefore, it is proved that finding a dynamic shortest path by applying traffic flows in the future for intermediated intersections can give more accurate traffic information and improve the quality of services of Telematics than finding a static shortest path applying by traffic flows of the starting time for intermediated intersections.