• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.43 no.5
• /
• pp.25-45
• /
• 2018

This paper estimates the export losses of the Korean domestic automobile industry due to US trade pressure and its economic ripple effects. Using the HS 6 digit tariff and export data from 2010 to 2017, this paper estimates the tariff elasticity of Korea's US automobile exports against a US tariff increase by applying the Poisson Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method. After estimating Korea's export losses to the US in three trade pressure scenarios, we estimate its impact on Korean domestic production, value-added and job creation by applying the tariff impact accumulation model based on the industry input-output analysis. Empirical results show that the impact of 25% global tariff by the US on the Korean domestic economy is estimated to result in $30.8 billion in export losses for the five years from 2019 to 2023, about 300 thousand job losses, 88.0 trillion in production inducement losses, and 24.0 trillion in value-added inducement losses. The impacts of withdrawal of the automobile tariff concession are estimated at $4.27 billion export losses and 41.7 thousand job losses. A 15% tariff rate on automobile parts for 3 years is estimated to result in $1.93 billion export losses and 18.7 thousand job losses.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.715-744
• /
• 2009

This study was analyzed the change of the tariff reduction for the Korea's fishery according to the Non Agricultural Market Access(NAMA) negotiations of the WTO. Four scenarios of tariff liberalization of NAMA are conducted on the basis of a Swiss formula. Using import demand function, we estimated price elasticities of imported fishery. The results of the analysis with mark up 20% show that, in the position of developed member, the value of import increase was between 405 billion won and 439 billion won, and analyzed between 232 billion won and 254 billion won with less than cut 50%. On the other hand, in the position of developing country, the value of import increase was between 311 billion won and 356 billion won, and analyzed between 174 billion won and 201 billion won with less than cut 50%. Also, the results was showed that the highest effects for increasing value of import are a fresh Pollack.