• Title/Summary/Keyword: 과소적합

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Growth Curve Estimation of Stand Volume by Major Species and Forest Type on Actual Forest in Korea (주요 수종 및 임상별 현실림의 재적생장량 곡선 추정)

  • Yoon, Jun-Hyuck;Bae, Eun-Ji;Son, Yeong-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.4
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    • pp.648-657
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to estimate the volume growth by forest type and major species using the national forest resource inventory and to predict the final age of maturity by deriving the mean annual increment (MAI) and the current annual increment (CAI). We estimated the volume growth using the Chapman-Richards model. In the volume estimation equations by forest type, coniferous forests exhibited the highest growth. According to the estimation formula for each major species, Larix kaempferi will grow the highest among coniferous tree species and Quercus mongolica among broad-leaved tree species. And these estimation formulas showed that the fitness index was generally low, such as 0.32 for L. kaempferi and 0.21 for Quercus variabilis. In the analysis of residual amount, which indicates the applicability of the volume estimation formula, the estimates of the estimation formula tended to be underestimated in about 30 years or more, but most of the residuals were evenly distributed around zero. Therefore, these estimation formulas have no difficulty estimating the volume of actual forest species in Korea. The maximum age attained by calculating MAI was 34 years for P. densiflora, 35 years for L. kaempferi, and 31 years for P. rigida among coniferous tree species. In broad-leaved tree species, we discovered that the maximum age was 32 years for Q. variabilis, 30 years for Q. acutissima, and 29 years for Q. mongolica. We calculated MAI and CAI to detect the point at which these two curves intersected. This point was defined by the maximum volume harvesting age. These results revealed no significant difference between the current standard cutting age in public and private forests recommended by the Korea Forest Service, supporting the reliability of forestry policy data.

Introduction and Evaluation of the Production Method for Chlorophyll-a Using Merging of GOCI-II and Polar Orbit Satellite Data (GOCI-II 및 극궤도 위성 자료를 병합한 Chlorophyll-a 산출물 생산방법 소개 및 활용 가능성 평가)

  • Hye-Kyeong Shin;Jae Yeop Kwon;Pyeong Joong Kim;Tae-Ho Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_1
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    • pp.1255-1272
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    • 2023
  • Satellite-based chlorophyll-a concentration, produced as a long-term time series, is crucial for global climate change research. The production of data without gaps through the merging of time-synthesized or multi-satellite data is essential. However, studies related to satellite-based chlorophyll-a concentration in the waters around the Korean Peninsula have mainly focused on evaluating seasonal characteristics or proposing algorithms suitable for research areas using a single ocean color sensor. In this study, a merging dataset of remote sensing reflectance from the geostationary sensor GOCI-II and polar-orbiting sensors (MODIS, VIIRS, OLCI) was utilized to achieve high spatial coverage of chlorophyll-a concentration in the waters around the Korean Peninsula. The spatial coverage in the results of this study increased by approximately 30% compared to polar-orbiting sensor data, effectively compensating for gaps caused by clouds. Additionally, we aimed to quantitatively assess accuracy through comparison with global chlorophyll-a composite data provided by Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) and GlobColour, along with in-situ observation data. However, due to the limited number of in-situ observation data, we could not provide statistically significant results. Nevertheless, we observed a tendency for underestimation compared to global data. Furthermore, for the evaluation of practical applications in response to marine disasters such as red tides, we qualitatively compared our results with a case of a red tide in the East Sea in 2013. The results showed similarities to OC-CCI rather than standalone geostationary sensor results. Through this study, we plan to use the generated data for future research in artificial intelligence models for prediction and anomaly utilization. It is anticipated that the results will be beneficial for monitoring chlorophyll-a events in the coastal waters around Korea.

Studies on the Environmental Factors Affecting the Cocoon Crops in Summer and Autumn in Korea (한국의 하추잠작 안정을 위한 환경요인에 관한 연구)

  • 이상풍
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 1974
  • These experiments pertain to various factors influencing the quantitative characters of cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons. Initially, in order to establish the possible ways of the silkworm rearing more than three times a year in Korea, the author attempted to get further information about the various factors affecting the cocoon crop in every silkworm rearing season. The trials were conducted eleven times a year at four places for three years. The field trial was conducted with 19 typical sericultural farmers who had been surveyed. At the same time the author statistically analyzed the various factors in close relation to tile cocoon crop in autumn season. The effect of guidance on 40 sericultural farmers was analyzed, comparing higher level farmers with lower level farmers ; and the author surveyed 758 non-guided farmers near the guided farmers during both spring and autumn seasons. In addition, another trial on the seasonal change of leaf quality was attempted with artificial diets prepared with leaves grown in each season. It was found that related factors to cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons appeared to be leaf quality, and temperature for young and grown larvae. A 2$^4$ factorial experiment was designed in summer season, and another design with one more level of varied temperature or hard leaf added to a 24 factorial experiment was conducted in early autumn. The experimental results can be summarized: 1. Study on the cocoon crops in the different rearing seasons 1) It was shown that earlier brushing of silkworm generally produced the most abundant cocoon crop in spring season, and earlier or later than the conventional brushing season, especially earlier brushing was unfavorable for the abundant cocoon crop in autumn season. 2) The cocoon crop was affected by the rearing season, and decreases in order of sire with spring, autumn, late autumn, summer and early autumn seasons. 3) It was Proved that ordinary rearing and branch rearing were possibles 4 times a year ; in the 1st, 3rd, 8th, and 10th brushing season. But the 11th brushing season was more favorable for the most abundant cocoon crop of branch rearing, instead of the 10th brushing season with ordinary rearing. 2. Study on the main factors affecting the cocoon crop in autumn season 1) Accumulated pathogens were a lethal factor leading to a bad cocoon crop through neglect of disinfection of rearing room and instruments. 2) Additional factors leading to a poor cocoon crop were unfavorable for rearing temperature and humidity, dense population, poor choice of moderately ripened leaf, and poor feeding techniques. However, it seemed that there was no relationship between the cocoon crop and management of farm. 3) The percentage of cocoon shell seemed to be mostly affected by leaf quality, and secondarily affected by the accumulation of pathogens. 3. Study on the effect of guidance on rearing techniques 1) The guided farms produced an average yearly yield of 29.0kg of cocoons, which varied from 32.3kg to 25.817g of cocoon yield per box in spring versus autumn, respectively. Those figures indicated an annual average increase of 26% of cocoon yield over yields of non-guided farmers. An increase of 20% of cocoon yield in spring and 35% of cocoon yield in autumn were responsible. 2) On guided farms 77.1 and 83.7% of total cocoon yields in the spring and autumn seasons, respectively, exceeded 3rd grade. This amounted to increases of 14.1 and 11.3% in cocoon yield and quality over those of non-guided farms. 3) The average annual cocoon yield on guided farms was 28.9kg per box, based on a range of 31.2kg to 26.9kg per box in spring and autumn seasons, respectively. This represented an 8% increase in cocoon yield on farms one year after guidance, as opposed to non-guided farms. This yield increase was due to 3 and 16% cocoon yield increases in spring and autumn crops. 4) Guidance had no effect on higher level farms, but was responsible for 19% of the increases in production on lower level farms. 4. Study on the seasonal change of leaf quality 1) In tests with grown larvae, leaves of tile spring crop incorporated in artificial diets produced the best cocoon crop; followed by leaves of the late autumn, summer, autumn, and early autumn crops. 2) The cocoon crop for young larvae as well as for grown larvae varied with the season of leaf used. 5. Study on factors affecting the cocoon crops in summer and early autumn A. Early autumn season 1) Survival rate and cocoon yield were significantly decreased at high rearing temperatures for young larvae 2) Survival rate, cocoon yield, and cocoon quality were adversely affected by high rearing temperatures for grown larvae. Therefore increases of cocoon quantity and improvement of cocoon quality are dependent on maintaining optimum temperatures. 3) Decreases in individual cocoon weight and longer larval periods resulted with feeding of soft leaf and hard leaf to young larvae, but the survival rate, cocoon yield and weight of cocoon shell were not influenced. 4) Cocoon yield and cocoon quality were influenced by feeding of hard leaf to grown larvae, but survival rate was not influenced by the feeding of soft leaf and hard leaf. 5) When grown larvae were inevitably raised at varied temperatures, application of varied temperature in the raising of both young and grown larvae was desirable. Further research concerning this matter must be considered. B. Summer season 1) Cocoon yield and single cocoon weight were decreased at high temperatures for young larvae and survival rate was also affected. 2) Cocoon yield, survival rate. and cocoon quality were considerably decreased at high rearing temperatures for grown larval stages.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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