• Title/Summary/Keyword: 과소적합

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Evaluation of Flood Impact Variables and Development of Flood Damage Function for Residential Buildings and Contents (주거건물 홍수피해 영향인자 평가 및 손상함수 개발)

  • Choi, Cheon kyu;Kim, Gil Ho;Kim, Kyung Tak;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.44-44
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    • 2017
  • 홍수 피해 특성을 파악하고 영향 인자를 평가하여 홍수 피해로 인한 손실을 추정하는 것은 홍수 예방과 피해 저감을 위한 대책 마련 및 정책수립을 위해 매우 중요하다. 이 중 홍수로 인한 주거건물의 피해는 일반 주민들과 직접적인 관련이 있다. 그러나 국내의 경우, 홍수피해 정보를 수집하기 위한 체계적인 조사 방법이 확립되어 있지 않아 주거건물 및 내용물의 피해가 과소평가되는 경향이 있다. 본 연구에서는 주거건물 및 내용물에 대해 홍수피해 정보의 체계적인 수집을 위해 주거건물 설문조사지를 활용하였다. 수집된 홍수피해 정보는 주거건물과 건물내용물의 홍수피해율과 영향인자간의 관계 분석에 활용하였으며, 국내 실정에 적합한 홍수피해 손상함수를 개발하고 적용 및 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 홍수로 인한 주거건물의 피해에 영향을 주는 대표 인자는 건물내 침수심과 출입구 높이로 평가되었으며, 건물내용물에 영향을 주는 인자는 건물내 침수심, 이송잡물로 나타났다. 한편, 주거건물과 내용물에 대한 손상함수를 건물내 침수심을 활용하여 회귀분석을 통해 개발하였으며, 개발된 손상함수는 국내 홍수피해 평가 모델인 다차원법과 비교 평가하였다. 평가 결과, 주거건물 피해액은 다차원법이 크게 산정되었으며, 건물내용물 피해액은 손상함수가 크게 산정된 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 수행한 주거건물과 건물내용물의 홍수피해 영향인자 평가 결과는 홍수피해 저감 대책 수립 및 향후 홍수피해를 추정하는데 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Radar rainfall estimation and accuracy verification according to rainfall types (강우유형에 따른 레이더 강우 추정 및 정확도 검증)

  • Gi Moon Yuk;Sang Min Jang;Kyoung Hun An
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.267-267
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    • 2023
  • 최근 이상기상현상과 기후변화로 인하여 국지적인 집중호우의 빈도 및 규모가 증가하고 있으며, 이로 인한 돌발 홍수 피해가 증가하고 있다. 레이더는 넓은 영역에 대해 고해상도의 강우 정보를 제공할 수 있으므로 위험기상 감시 및 실황 예측 모형의 입력자료로써 활용도가 높다. 레이더 강우량은 대기 중 강수입자에 대한 레이더 반사도와 강우강도의 Z-R 관계식으로 추정되기 때문에 강우 추정 과정에 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. 특히, 우리나라의 여름철 한반도의 집중호우는 층운형 강우와 함께 대류형 강우가 동반되는 복합적인 강우시스템에서 자주 발생하지만, 레이더 강우는 일반적으로 단일 강우시스템에 대한 고정된 Z-R 관계식으로 추정하므로, 이러한 현상에 대해 과대 추정 혹은 과소 추정이 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 집중호우에 적합한 강우를 추정하기 위해 2021년 8월 21일부터 8월 25일까지 경남 호우사례를 대상으로 층운형, 대류형, 열대형의 Z-R관계식과 반사도 조건에 따라 층운형과 적운형을 구분하여 Z-R 관계식을 적용하여 레이더 강우량 자료를 산출하였으며, 지상강우자료를 이용하여 정확도를 평가하였다. 레이더 자료 처리를 위해 Radar Software Library (RSL)를 이용하여 수평으로 1km 해상도의 1.5km CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) 자료로 변환하였다. 레이더 강우 추정의 정확도를 평가하기 위해 레이더 지점으로부터 100 km 이내에 위치하고 있는 기상관서와 자동기상관측소의 강우관측 결과와 비교·분석하였다.

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Development of Local Stem Volume Table for Pinus densiflora S. et Z. Using Tree Stem Taper Model (수간곡선 모델을 이용한 소나무의 지방별 수간재적표 개발)

  • Kang, Jin-Taek;Son, Yeong-Mo;Kim, So-Won;Lee, Sun-Jeoung;Park, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.327-335
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    • 2014
  • Current volume tables might underestimate or overestimate the volumes of individual trees in a specific region because the tables were made using the data from broad regions within South Korea. Therefore, to solve this problem, this study was conducted to develop local stem volume tables reflecting the local growth pattern and properties using stem taper equations in the regions of Hongcheon and Yeongju. We developed the local stem volume table for Pinus densiflora, which is the widely planted species in South Korea. To derive the most suitable taper equation for estimating the stem volume of region, three models of Max & Burkhart, Kozak and Parresol et al. were applied and their fitness were statistically analyzed by using the Fitness Index, Bias, and Standard Error of Bias. The result showed that there is a significant difference among the three models, and the Fitness Index of the Kozak model was highest compared to the other models. Therefore, the Kozak model was chosen for generating stem taper equation and stem volume tables for P. densiflora. The result from the developed stem volume tables of each region was compared to the current stem volume tables with driven by the data of tree growth obtained throughout the nation. The result showed that there is a significant difference (0.000< ${\alpha}=0.05$) in two regions, Hongcheon and Yeongju, and also there is a significant difference (0.000< ${\alpha}=0.05$) between the two regions.

Comparison of Super Structure-Sub Structure Separation Analysis and Unification Analysis about Building Structures (건축구조물의 상부구조-하부구조 분리해석과 일체해석의 비교분석)

  • Kim, Jae-Yo;Kim, Jin-Yong;Kang, Su-Min
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2016
  • In the case of structural analysis for building structures, the super-structure and the sub-structure are analyzed by using separate structural models in the field because of time saving, facile result interpretation and easy analysis of dynamic behavior. However this separate structural model violated the compatibility condition of structural analysis and it can not consider the interaction of superand sub- structures. In the present study, the analysis results of this separate model were compared to those of the unified model of super- and sub- structures which can consider the interaction of super- and sub- structures and reflect the realistic boundary conditions. According to the comparison results, the the analysis model using separate models can underestimate the member force and deflection of structural members in the super-structures and overestimate the deflection and member force of sub-structures. Therefore, in the case of high-rise buildings, irregular shaped buildings, buildings which are expected to be affected by large differential settlement and remodeling buildings, the unified structural model for super- and sub- structures was recommended for structural analysis instead of the separate structural model.

A study on the prediction of aquatic ecosystem health grade in ungauged rivers through the machine learning model based on GAN data (GAN 데이터 기반의 머신러닝 모델을 통한 미계측 하천에서의 수생태계 건강성 등급 예측 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Seoro;Lee, Jimin;Lee, Gwanjae;Kim, Jonggun;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.448-448
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    • 2021
  • 최근 급격한 기후변화와 도시화 및 산업화로 인한 지류하천에서의 수량과 수질의 변동은 생물 다양성 감소와 수생태계 건강성 저하에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 효율적인 수생태 관리를 위해서는 지속적인 유량, 수질, 그리고 수생태 모니터링을 통한 데이터 축적과 더불어 면밀한 상관 분석을 통해 수생태계 건강성의 악화 원인을 규명해야 할 필요가 있다. 그러나 수많은 지류하천을 대상으로 한 지속적인 모니터링은 현실적으로 어려움이 있으며, 수생태계의 특성 상 단일 영향 인자만으로 수생태계의 건강성 변화와의 관계를 정확히 파악하는데 한계가 있다. 따라서 지류하천에서의 유량 및 수질의 시공간적인 변동성과 다양한 영향 인자를 고려하여 수생태계의 건강성을 효율적으로 예측할 수 있는 기술이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 경험적 데이터 기반의 머신러닝 모델 구축을 통해 미계측 하천에서의 수생태계 건강성 지수(BMI, TDI, FAI)의 등급(A to E)을 예측하고자 하였다. 머신러닝 모델은 학습 데이터셋의 양과 질에 따라 성능이 크게 달라질 수 있으며, 학습 데이터셋의 분포가 불균형적일 경우 과적합 또는 과소적합 문제가 발생할 수 있다. 이를 보완하고자 본 연구에서는 실제 측정망 데이터셋을 바탕으로 생성적 적대 신경망 GAN(Generative Adversarial Network) 알고리즘을 통해 머신러닝 모델 학습에 필요한 추가 데이터셋(유량, 수질, 기상, 수생태 등급)을 확보하였다. 머신러닝 모델의 성능은 5차 교차검증 과정을 통해 평가하였으며, GAN 데이터셋의 정확도는 실제 측정망 데이터셋의 정규분포와의 비교 분석을 통해 평가하였다. 최종적으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 통해 예측 된 미계측 하천에서의 데이터셋을 머신러닝 모델의 검증 자료로 사용하여 수생태계 건강성 등급 예측 정확도를 평가하였다. 본 연구에서의 GAN에 의해 강화된 머신러닝 모델은 수질 및 수생태 관리가 필요한 우심 지류하천 선정과 구조적/비구조적 최적관리기법에 따른 수생태계 건강성 개선 효과를 평가하는데 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 이를 통해 예측된 미계측 하천에서의 수생태계 건강성 등급 자료는 수량-수질-수생태를 유기적으로 연계한 통합 물관리 정책을 수립하는데 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이라 사료된다.

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One-probe P300 based concealed information test with machine learning (기계학습을 이용한 단일 관련자극 P300기반 숨김정보검사)

  • Hyuk Kim;Hyun-Taek Kim
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.49-95
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    • 2024
  • Polygraph examination, statement validity analysis and P300-based concealed information test are major three examination tools, which are use to determine a person's truthfulness and credibility in criminal procedure. Although polygraph examination is most common in criminal procedure, but it has little admissibility of evidence due to the weakness of scientific basis. In 1990s to support the weakness of scientific basis about polygraph, Farwell and Donchin proposed the P300-based concealed information test technique. The P300-based concealed information test has two strong points. First, the P300-based concealed information test is easy to conduct with polygraph. Second, the P300-based concealed information test has plentiful scientific basis. Nevertheless, the utilization of P300-based concealed information test is infrequent, because of the quantity of probe stimulus. The probe stimulus contains closed information that is relevant to the crime or other investigated situation. In tradition P300-based concealed information test protocol, three or more probe stimuli are necessarily needed. But it is hard to acquire three or more probe stimuli, because most of the crime relevant information is opened in investigative situation. In addition, P300-based concealed information test uses oddball paradigm, and oddball paradigm makes imbalance between the number of probe and irrelevant stimulus. Thus, there is a possibility that the unbalanced number of probe and irrelevant stimulus caused systematic underestimation of P300 amplitude of irrelevant stimuli. To overcome the these two limitation of P300-based concealed information test, one-probe P300-based concealed information test protocol is explored with various machine learning algorithms. According to this study, parameters of the modified one-probe protocol are as follows. In the condition of female and male face stimuli, the duration of stimuli are encouraged 400ms, the repetition of stimuli are encouraged 60 times, the analysis method of P300 amplitude is encouraged peak to peak method, the cut-off of guilty condition is encouraged 90% and the cut-off of innocent condition is encouraged 30%. In the condition of two-syllable word stimulus, the duration of stimulus is encouraged 300ms, the repetition of stimulus is encouraged 60 times, the analysis method of P300 amplitude is encouraged peak to peak method, the cut-off of guilty condition is encouraged 90% and the cut-off of innocent condition is encouraged 30%. It was also conformed that the logistic regression (LR), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), K Neighbors (KNN) algorithms were probable methods for analysis of P300 amplitude. The one-probe P300-based concealed information test with machine learning protocol is helpful to increase utilization of P300-based concealed information test, and supports to determine a person's truthfulness and credibility with the polygraph examination in criminal procedure.

Non-linear effects of demand-supply based metro accessibility on land prices in Seoul, Republic of Korea: Using G2SFCA Approach (서울시 수요-공급 기반 지하철 접근성이 토지가격에 미치는 비선형적 영향: G2SFCA 적용을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Chang-Deok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.189-210
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    • 2022
  • Cities around the world have paid attention to public transportation as an alternative to reducing traffic congestion caused by automobile usage, excessive energy consumption, and environmental pollution. This study measures accessibility to subway stations in Seoul using a supply-demand-based accessibility technique. Then, the impacts were analyzed through land prices by use and segment. As a result of analysis using the multilevel hedonic price models, accessibility considering both supply and demand for the subway had a positive effect on both residential and non-residential land prices. The effect was stronger for residential than for non-residential. Further, among the accessibility measured by the three functions, the accessibility by the Exponential function was most suitable for the residential land price, and the accessibility measured by the Power function for the non-residential land price had the highest explanatory power. Also, looking at the impacts by land price segments, it was found that higher access to metro stations had the greatest positive impacts on the most expensive segment of residential and non-residential land prices. The results of this study can be applied not only to identify the impacts of public investment on neighborhoods, but also to support real estate valuation.

Classification of Estuaries based on Morphological Convergence (형태적 수렴 특성을 이용한 하구 분류)

  • SHIN, Hyun-jung;RHEW, Hosahng;LEE, Guan-hong
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2012
  • The classification scheme of estuaries can be divided into two categories: qualitative classification based on geomorphic characteristics and quantitative classification based upon the physical properties of water body. While simple and intuitive scheme of the former is difficult to quantify, the latter is not easy to apply due to the lack of data. A classification scheme based on morphological convergence is very promising because it only requires easily accessible data such as width and depth of channels, as well as it can characterize estuaries in terms of tidal propagation. Thus, this paper examines the classification scheme based on estuarine morphological convergence using depth and width data obtained from 19 major Korean estuaries. Morphological convergence for each estuary was estimated with the estuarine length, width and depth data to get the convergence parameters, which includes the degree of funneling ${\nu}$ and the dimensionless estuarine length $y_0$. The transfer function ${\xi}({\nu},ky)$ is then deduced analytically from 1D depth-integrated hydrodynamic momentum equation and continuity equation for estuarine shapes. Tidal response of each estuary is finally calculated using ${\nu}$, $y_0$ and ${\xi}({\nu},ky)$ for comparison and classification. The 19 Korean estuaries were classified into three groups: tidal amplitude-dominated estuaries with standing wave-like tidal response (group 1), current-dominated estuaries with progressive wave-like tidal response (group 2), and the intermediate group (group 3) between groups 1 and 2. The sensitivity analysis revealed that uncertainties in determining the estuarine length can have a critical effect upon the results of classification, which indicates that the reasonable determination of the estuarine length is of critical importance. Once the estuarine length is feasibly determined, depth-convergence can be neglected without any negative effect on the classification scheme, which has an important ramification on the wide applicability of the classification scheme.

Structural Performance of Concrete-encased Steel Columns using 800MPa Steel and 100MPa Concrete (800MPa 강재 및 100MPa 콘크리트를 적용한 매입형 합성기둥의 구조성능)

  • Kim, Chang-Soo;Park, Hong-Gun;Choi, In-Rak;Chung, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Jin-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.497-509
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    • 2010
  • Five concrete-encased steel columns using high-strength steel($f_{ys}$=801MPa) and high-strength concrete($f_{ck}$=97.7MPa) were tested to investigate the eccentric axial load-displacement relationship. Test parameters included the type, yield strength, and spacing of lateral reinforcement, and also the eccentricity of axial load. To analyze the behavior of the column specimens, the nonlinear sectional analysis using strain-compatibility and confinement effect was performed. To examine the applicability of existing design codes for the composite sections using high-strength materials, the test results were also compared with the predictions by the nonlinear analysis and the design codes. The confinement effect of lateral reinforcement increased the ductility of concrete, and the moment capacity of the column specimens increased with the ductility of concrete. The prediction by the nonlinear analysis gave good agreement with the test results. On the other hand, the ACI 318 neglecting lateral confinement effect underestimated the strength of the column specimens, and the Eurocode 4 using complete plastic capacity of steel section overestimated.

Characteristics of Load-Settlement Behaviour for Embeded Piles Using Load-Transfer Mechanism (하중전이기법을 이용한 매입말뚝의 하중-침하 거동특성)

  • Oh, Se Wook
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2001
  • A series of model tests and analyses by load transfer function were performed to study load-settlement behaviour with relative compaction ratio of soil and embeded depth of pile. In the model tests, embeded depth ratio(L/D) of pile were installed 15, 20, 25 and relative compaction of soil(RC) is 85%, 95% and then cement were injected at around perimeter of pile. For analysis of embedded pile, the paper were compared results of model tests with analysis results by Vijayvergiya model and Castelli model, Gwizdala model of elastic plasticity-perfect plastic model and then the fitness load transfer mechanism was proposed to predict load-settlement behaviour of embeded pile. The analysis results of predicted bearing capacity by load transfer function, ultimate bearing capacity of embeded pile were approached to measured value and behaviour of initial load-settlement curve were estimated that load transfer function by Castelli were similar to measured value. The result of axial load analysis of bored pile shows that skin friction estimated by load transfer mechanism is investigated more a little than that of measured values.

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