• Title/Summary/Keyword: 공급사 신뢰

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Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

Scheduling System using CSP leer Effective Assignment of Repair Warrant Job (효율적인 A/S작업 배정을 위한 CSP기반의 스케줄링 시스템)

  • 심명수;조근식
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.247-256
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    • 2000
  • 오늘날의 기업은 상품을 판매하는 것 뿐만 아니라 기업의 신용과 이미지를 위해 그 상품에 대한 사후처리(After Service) 업무에 많은 투자를 하고 있다. 이러한 양질의 사후서비스를 고객에게 공급하기 위해서는 많은 인력을 합리적으로 관리해야 하고 요청되는 고장수리 서비스 업무를 빠르게 해결하기 위해서는 업무를 인력들에게 합리적으로 배정을 하고 회사의 비용을 최소화하면서 정해진 시간에 요청된 작업을 처리하기 위해서는 인력들에게 작업을 배정하고 스케줄링하는 문제가 발생된다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 화학계기의 A/S 작업을 인력에게 합리적으로 배정하는 스케줄링 시스템에 관한 연구이다. 먼저 스케줄링 모델을 HP 사의 화학분석 및 시스템을 판매, 유지보수 해 주는 "영진과학(주)"회사의 작업 스케줄을 분석하여 필요한 도메인과 고객서비스전략과 인력관리전략에서 제약조건을 추출하였고 여기에 스케줄링 문제를 해결하기 위한 방법으로 제약만족문제(CSP) 해결기법인 도메인 여과기법을 적용하였다. 도메인 여과기법은 제약조건에 의해 변수가 갖는 도메인의 불필요한 부분을 여과하는 것으로 제약조건과 관련되어 있는 변수의 도메인이 축소되는 것이다. 또한, 스케줄링을 하는데에 있어서 비용적인 측면에서의 스케줄링방법과 고객 만족도에서의 스케줄링 방법을 비교하여 가장 이상적인 해를 찾는데 트래이드오프(Trade-off)를 이용하여 최적의 해를 구했으며 실험을 통해 인력에게 더욱 효율적으로 작업들을 배정 할 수 있었고 또한, 정해진 시간에 많은 작업을 처리 할 수 있었으며 작업을 처리하는데 있어 소요되는 비용을 감소하는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 검증하였다.를, 지지도(support), 신뢰도(confidence), 리프트(lift), 컨빅션(conviction)등의 관계를 통해 다양한 방법으로 모색해본다. 이 연구에서 제안하는 이러한 개념계층상의 흥미로운 부분의 탐색은, 전자 상거래에서의 CRM(Customer Relationship Management)나 틈새시장(niche market) 마케팅 등에 적용가능하리라 여겨진다.선의 효과가 나타났다. 표본기업들을 훈련과 시험용으로 구분하여 분석한 결과는 전체적으로 재무/비재무적 지표를 고려한 인공신경망기법의 예측적중률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 로지스틱회귀 분석의 재무적 지표모형은 훈련, 시험용이 84.45%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 84.45%, 85.08%로서 거의 동일한 예측적중률을 가졌으나 인공신경망기법 분석에서는 재무적 지표모형이 92.23%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형에서는 91.12%, 88.06%로서 향상된 예측적중률을 나타내었다.ting LMS according to increasing the step-size parameter $\mu$ in the experimentally computed. learning curve. Also we find that convergence speed of proposed algorithm is increased by (B+1) time proportional to B which B is the number of recycled data buffer without complexity

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Did the Handling Fee Decline Cause Consumer Surplus in the Port Business Market in Korea? : The Case of Busan port (컨테이너 하역요율 하락은 소비자잉여를 증가시켰는가? : 부산항을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Gun-Woo;Kim, Chan-Ho;Kim, Young-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.109-122
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    • 2016
  • As increasing of container throughputs, port business market in Korea has been developed. However, due to the introducing of a handling fee reporting system in 1999 and surplus of facilities, port business market in Korea turned into deadly competition with lowering the handling fee. Due to the reasons, the handling fee in 2015 declined as much as 50% of in 2000. Therefore, this study analyzed whether the handling fee decline caused consumer surplus in the port business market of Korea or not. To do that, this study applied a methodology of Alexander for estimating the consumer surplus and Hausman's model using Hicksian demand. As the result of the analyzing, due to the excessive decreasing of the handling fee compared the import & export demand, consumer surplus of the port business market in Korea was decreased. However, due to the exception of transshipment from demand in this study, transshipment demand is needed to be considered to estimate of economic value of port business market in Korea in the future. Also, economic value of port business including subsidiary businesses will be estimated in order to strengthen the method for estimating economic benefit of port construction.

The Role and Focus Areas of Medical Technologists in the Field of Diagnostic Tests in the COVID-19 Era (COVID-19 시대 임상병리사의 역할 및 영역)

  • Yang, Byoung Seon;Choi, Se Mook;Bae, Hyung Joon;Kim, Yoon Sik;Lim, Yong;Kang, Hee Jung;Bae, Do Hee;Choi, Byoung Ho;Lee, Jae Suk;Park, Ji Ae
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2022
  • This study attempted to provide the basic data for developing a system to identify the role of medical technologists and ensure an efficient response for quick and accurate diagnostic tests in the COVID-19 era. The research method involved using focus group interviews for a survey and analysis of 15 medical institutions. Eleven sample collection institutions, 10.4 medical technologists, 2.1 minutes of collection time, 5.4 hours of test time, 9,670 tests, 6.2 member test workforce size, and 7 screening center operating institutions were surveyed. The results of the focus group interview analysis revealed that there were no standardized guidelines covering working hours, area, and environment to protect sample collectors and testers in relation to the COVID-19 tests. Also, legal protection measures were insufficient in the event of accidental infections and there were no personnel regulations related to COVID-19. In addition, the professional training of sample collectors and molecular diagnostic testers was required for reliable COVID-19 testing. In conclusion, it is necessary to provide professional education through special test short-term training institutions to cope with emergency infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Legal systems should be put in place to protect the workforce and ensure stability.

A Study on Intelligent Value Chain Network System based on Firms' Information (기업정보 기반 지능형 밸류체인 네트워크 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Kim, Kang-Hoe;Moon, Young-Su;Lee, Ho-Shin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2018
  • Until recently, as we recognize the significance of sustainable growth and competitiveness of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), governmental support for tangible resources such as R&D, manpower, funds, etc. has been mainly provided. However, it is also true that the inefficiency of support systems such as underestimated or redundant support has been raised because there exist conflicting policies in terms of appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of business support. From the perspective of the government or a company, we believe that due to limited resources of SMEs technology development and capacity enhancement through collaboration with external sources is the basis for creating competitive advantage for companies, and also emphasize value creation activities for it. This is why value chain network analysis is necessary in order to analyze inter-company deal relationships from a series of value chains and visualize results through establishing knowledge ecosystems at the corporate level. There exist Technology Opportunity Discovery (TOD) system that provides information on relevant products or technology status of companies with patents through retrievals over patent, product, or company name, CRETOP and KISLINE which both allow to view company (financial) information and credit information, but there exists no online system that provides a list of similar (competitive) companies based on the analysis of value chain network or information on potential clients or demanders that can have business deals in future. Therefore, we focus on the "Value Chain Network System (VCNS)", a support partner for planning the corporate business strategy developed and managed by KISTI, and investigate the types of embedded network-based analysis modules, databases (D/Bs) to support them, and how to utilize the system efficiently. Further we explore the function of network visualization in intelligent value chain analysis system which becomes the core information to understand industrial structure ystem and to develop a company's new product development. In order for a company to have the competitive superiority over other companies, it is necessary to identify who are the competitors with patents or products currently being produced, and searching for similar companies or competitors by each type of industry is the key to securing competitiveness in the commercialization of the target company. In addition, transaction information, which becomes business activity between companies, plays an important role in providing information regarding potential customers when both parties enter similar fields together. Identifying a competitor at the enterprise or industry level by using a network map based on such inter-company sales information can be implemented as a core module of value chain analysis. The Value Chain Network System (VCNS) combines the concepts of value chain and industrial structure analysis with corporate information simply collected to date, so that it can grasp not only the market competition situation of individual companies but also the value chain relationship of a specific industry. Especially, it can be useful as an information analysis tool at the corporate level such as identification of industry structure, identification of competitor trends, analysis of competitors, locating suppliers (sellers) and demanders (buyers), industry trends by item, finding promising items, finding new entrants, finding core companies and items by value chain, and recognizing the patents with corresponding companies, etc. In addition, based on the objectivity and reliability of the analysis results from transaction deals information and financial data, it is expected that value chain network system will be utilized for various purposes such as information support for business evaluation, R&D decision support and mid-term or short-term demand forecasting, in particular to more than 15,000 member companies in Korea, employees in R&D service sectors government-funded research institutes and public organizations. In order to strengthen business competitiveness of companies, technology, patent and market information have been provided so far mainly by government agencies and private research-and-development service companies. This service has been presented in frames of patent analysis (mainly for rating, quantitative analysis) or market analysis (for market prediction and demand forecasting based on market reports). However, there was a limitation to solving the lack of information, which is one of the difficulties that firms in Korea often face in the stage of commercialization. In particular, it is much more difficult to obtain information about competitors and potential candidates. In this study, the real-time value chain analysis and visualization service module based on the proposed network map and the data in hands is compared with the expected market share, estimated sales volume, contact information (which implies potential suppliers for raw material / parts, and potential demanders for complete products / modules). In future research, we intend to carry out the in-depth research for further investigating the indices of competitive factors through participation of research subjects and newly developing competitive indices for competitors or substitute items, and to additively promoting with data mining techniques and algorithms for improving the performance of VCNS.