• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.3D
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• pp.391-401
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• 2011

The Implementation Semi-Public Management System of Intra-City Bus brings improvements of the position stability, work environment and welfare of the bus drivers. As these benefits prevent drivers' job changes, average age of the drivers increases. Some side effects such as fatality increase after the implementation of the new system are becoming social problems. To minimize such problems, it is necessary to prepare the measurements reflected drivers' age increase and driving characteristics of old drivers to decrease traffic accidents of intra-city buses. The existing measurements are mostly simple policy. To get over such limitations, this study grasped driving characteristics by surveys and driving aptitude test targeting old drivers and non-old drivers who brings about traffic accidents actually. As a result, the characteristics of the old drivers were understood precisely. The measures of decrease of the traffic accidents are suggested by the analysis of the behavior characteristics of the old drivers through the structural equation model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.