• Title/Summary/Keyword: 고객 행태 예측

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A Study on the User's Behavior of the S&T Information - A Case study of KOSEN (과학기술정보의 이용행태에 관한 연구 -KOSEN 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-kuk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2018.01a
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    • pp.201-202
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    • 2018
  • 본 논문에서는 국내에서는 처음으로 이용 고객의 변화를 3년간 추적하여 이용행태를 인지하고 대비하기 위해 적용한 방법으로서, 순고객추천지수(NPS : Net Promoter Score) 실사를 통한 고개의 심층 VOC(Voice of Customer)를 기반으로 분석한 방식이다. KISTI의 해외과학기술자네트워크(KOSEN : The Global Network of Korean Scientists & Engineers)의 서비스에 대한 고객만족도를 기반으로 하여 충성고객을 예측할 수 있는 프레임워크를 구축하는 것이다. 이를 위해 서비스를 경험한 500여명의 의사결정자를 대상으로 해외과학기술자네트워크 서비스에 대한 고객충성도를 분석하였다. 이와 같은 연구결과는 인터넷 등 정보의 발달로 고객의 긍정적 또는 부정적인 구전이 급속도로 노출되는 환경에서 고객의 만족도를 관리함으로써 충성고객을 확보하는데 사전 예측자료로 활용될 수 있다.

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A Study on the User's Behavior of the S&T Information - A Case study of NTIS (과학기술지식정보의 이용행태에 관한 연구 - NTIS 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-kuk;Choi, Seon-heui
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.79-80
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    • 2018
  • 본 논문에서는 2015년도 이용 고객의 변화를 3년간 분석하여 이용행태를 모니터링하고 기관의 고객만족 개선 활동에 대한 고객의 의견을 분석하기 위함이다. 한국과학기술정보연구원의 국가과학기술지식정보서비스 (NTIS : National Science & Technology Information Service)는 사업, 과제, 인력, 연구시설 장비, 성과 등 국가연구개발 사업에 대한 정보를 한 곳에서 서비스하는 국가과학기술 지식정보 포털입니다. 부처별(기관별)로 개별 관리되고 있는 국가R&D 사업 관련 정보와 과학기술 정보를 공유하고 공동 활용해, 국가R&D 투자 효율성을 높이고 연구 생산성 향상에 기여하는 것이 주목적입니다. 국가과학기술지식정보서비스에 대한 고객만족도를 기반으로 하여 핵심고객을 예측할 수 있는 프레임워크를 구축하는 것이다. 이를 위해 서비스를 경험한 500여명의 의사결정자를 대상으로 국가과학기술지식정보서비스에 대한 고객충성도를 분석하였다. 이와 같은 연구결과는 인터넷 등 정보의 발달로 고객의 긍정적 또는 부정적인 구전이 급속도로 노출되는 환경에서 고객의 만족도를 관리함으로써 핵심고객을 확보하는데 사전 예측자료로 활용될 수 있다.

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Telecommunication Service Usage as Predictor of the Timing of Handset Buyers' Replacement Purchases (통신서비스 이용행태 분석을 통한 휴대폰 교체기간 예측)

  • Park, Hyun Jung;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.47-69
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    • 2005
  • With the explosive growth of mobile products industry, tons of newer versions of products are putting on the market. From the marketer's perspective, understanding consumers' replacement purchases, especially the replacement timing, is essential to product planning and selling. This study presents an approach to finding out factors influencing the timing of buyers' replacement purchases of cell phones, using duration analysis; a hazard function specification is applied to describe consumers' replacement timing decision. Based on the data collected from a mobile telecommunication company, five categories of factors have been inspected. These are consumer's innovative service usage, data service usage, voice service usage, participation in loyalty programs, and the demographic characteristics. The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, the positive coefficient of 'the number of related services used' suggests that the consumers who have more usage knowledge tend to replace faster. Secondly, customers participating in the membership service are positively associated with early replacement purchases. Lastly, younger customers(vs. older) and male(vs. female) customers turned out to replace cell phones earlier.

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Customer Behavior Prediction of Binary Classification Model Using Unstructured Information and Convolution Neural Network: The Case of Online Storefront (비정형 정보와 CNN 기법을 활용한 이진 분류 모델의 고객 행태 예측: 전자상거래 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • Deep learning is getting attention recently. The deep learning technique which had been applied in competitions of the International Conference on Image Recognition Technology(ILSVR) and AlphaGo is Convolution Neural Network(CNN). CNN is characterized in that the input image is divided into small sections to recognize the partial features and combine them to recognize as a whole. Deep learning technologies are expected to bring a lot of changes in our lives, but until now, its applications have been limited to image recognition and natural language processing. The use of deep learning techniques for business problems is still an early research stage. If their performance is proved, they can be applied to traditional business problems such as future marketing response prediction, fraud transaction detection, bankruptcy prediction, and so on. So, it is a very meaningful experiment to diagnose the possibility of solving business problems using deep learning technologies based on the case of online shopping companies which have big data, are relatively easy to identify customer behavior and has high utilization values. Especially, in online shopping companies, the competition environment is rapidly changing and becoming more intense. Therefore, analysis of customer behavior for maximizing profit is becoming more and more important for online shopping companies. In this study, we propose 'CNN model of Heterogeneous Information Integration' using CNN as a way to improve the predictive power of customer behavior in online shopping enterprises. In order to propose a model that optimizes the performance, which is a model that learns from the convolution neural network of the multi-layer perceptron structure by combining structured and unstructured information, this model uses 'heterogeneous information integration', 'unstructured information vector conversion', 'multi-layer perceptron design', and evaluate the performance of each architecture, and confirm the proposed model based on the results. In addition, the target variables for predicting customer behavior are defined as six binary classification problems: re-purchaser, churn, frequent shopper, frequent refund shopper, high amount shopper, high discount shopper. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model, we conducted experiments using actual data of domestic specific online shopping company. This experiment uses actual transactions, customers, and VOC data of specific online shopping company in Korea. Data extraction criteria are defined for 47,947 customers who registered at least one VOC in January 2011 (1 month). The customer profiles of these customers, as well as a total of 19 months of trading data from September 2010 to March 2012, and VOCs posted for a month are used. The experiment of this study is divided into two stages. In the first step, we evaluate three architectures that affect the performance of the proposed model and select optimal parameters. We evaluate the performance with the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model, which combines both structured and unstructured information, is superior compared to NBC(Naïve Bayes classification), SVM(Support vector machine), and ANN(Artificial neural network). Therefore, it is significant that the use of unstructured information contributes to predict customer behavior, and that CNN can be applied to solve business problems as well as image recognition and natural language processing problems. It can be confirmed through experiments that CNN is more effective in understanding and interpreting the meaning of context in text VOC data. And it is significant that the empirical research based on the actual data of the e-commerce company can extract very meaningful information from the VOC data written in the text format directly by the customer in the prediction of the customer behavior. Finally, through various experiments, it is possible to say that the proposed model provides useful information for the future research related to the parameter selection and its performance.

Development of a Behavioral Mode Choice Model for Road Goods Movement (형태요소를 적용한 화물수송수단 선택 모형의 개발)

  • 최창호
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1999.03a
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    • pp.95-109
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    • 1999
  • 기존의 추정된 화물 수요모형은 화물의 출하특성과 관련된 설명변수를 중심으로 추정되었으며, 이에 따라 수송수단 선택 과정에서 화주가 느끼는 실제의 인식 상황을 모형내에 적절히 반영하지 못하였다. 본 연구는 기존 연구가 갖는 한계점을 극복하고자 화주가 수송수단을 선택할 때 느끼는 인식상황을 모형 내에 적용시켜 수단 선택 특성을 분석하였다. 연구대상은 우리나라의 188개 제조업체에서 화물자동차로 출하한 내수용 화물이며, 연구의 범위도 현실 운송체계 내에서 화주의 수단선택 행태를 설명하는 단기간의 예측으로 제한하였다. 모형추정결과 우리나라의 공로화물수송을 해석하기 위해서는, 출하중량까지를 고려한 다항로짓모형 형태이면서 인식 요소를 행태변수로 추가한 모형을 이용하는 것이 가장 적절하다는 결론을 내렸다. 그리고 이에 따라 주요한 설명 변수들의 탄력성과 화주의 인식 요소에 대한 특성값을 분석하여 제시하였다. 연구결과는 활용성 측면에서 직접 활용이 가능한 것과 잠재적인 변화를 예측하는데 이용되는 것으로 구분된다. 먼저 직접활용이 가능한 것은 수송수단과 관계된 변수들을 해석하여 얻는데, 수송비용과 수송시간에 대한 계수값의 크기와 부호, 그리고 탄력성은 정부의 정책부서나 운송인의 계획수립에 직접 적용된다. 다음으로 화주의 인식 요소는 잠재적인 변화를 예측하는데 이용되며 각 요소가 갖는 탄력성 및 특징은 운송인의 고객관리 기준이된다.

A study on the behavior of cosmetic customers (화장품구매 자료를 통한 고객 구매행태 분석)

  • Cho, Dae-Hyeon;Kim, Byung-Soo;Seok, Kyung-Ha;Lee, Jong-Un;Kim, Jong-Sung;Kim, Sun-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.615-627
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    • 2009
  • In micro marketing promotion, it is important to know the behavior of customers. In this study we are interested in the forecasting of repurchase of customers from customers' behavior. By analyzing the cosmetic transaction data we derive some variables which play an important role in the knowledge of the customers' behavior and in the modeling of repurchase. As modeling tools we use the decision tree, logistic regression and neural network model. Finally we decide to use the decision tree as a final model since it yields the smallest RASE (root average squared error) and the greatest correct classification rate.

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Social Network : A Novel Approach to New Customer Recommendations (사회연결망 : 신규고객 추천문제의 새로운 접근법)

  • Park, Jong-Hak;Cho, Yoon-Ho;Kim, Jae-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.123-140
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    • 2009
  • Collaborative filtering recommends products using customers' preferences, so it cannot recommend products to the new customer who has no preference information. This paper proposes a novel approach to new customer recommendations using the social network analysis which is used to search relationships among social entities such as genetics network, traffic network, organization network, etc. The proposed recommendation method identifies customers most likely to be neighbors to the new customer using the centrality theory in social network analysis and recommends products those customers have liked in the past. The procedure of our method is divided into four phases : purchase similarity analysis, social network construction, centrality-based neighborhood formation, and recommendation generation. To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach, we have conducted several experiments using a data set from a department store in Korea. Our method was compared with the best-seller-based method that uses the best-seller list to generate recommendations for the new customer. The experimental results show that our approach significantly outperforms the best-seller-based method as measured by F1-measure.

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Balanced Scorecard using System Dynamics for Evaluating IT Investment (IT 투자 평가를 위한 시스템 다이나믹스를 활용한 밸런스스코어카드)

  • Baek, Sung-Won;Ju, Jung-Eun;Koo, Sang-Hoe
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.19-34
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    • 2008
  • IT investment is usually very costly and takes a long time to get the results out of investment. However, most of currently available evaluation methods for IT investment are based upon short-term effects, hence their results are not fully trustworthy. In addition, those methods commonly consider only financial aspects such as ROI. For more reliable evaluation, it is necessary to consider non-financial factors such as system utilization, customer satisfaction, public relations, and so on, as well as financial factors. In this research, we propose an evaluation method that can evaluate both financial and non-financial aspects on a long-term base. For this purpose, we employed the research results developed in System dynamics and Balanced scorecard. System dynamics is useful in analyzing long term behavior of a given system, and Balanced scorecard is useful for evaluating both financial and non-financial aspects. We demonstrated the usefulness of our method by applying it to the evaluation of RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) investment in a distribution and retail industry. From this application, we found that RFID investment may not be rewarding in the short term, but is sure to be returning the income relative to its investment in the long run.

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Intelligent Brand Positioning Visualization System Based on Web Search Traffic Information : Focusing on Tablet PC (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 지능형 브랜드 포지셔닝 시스템 : 태블릿 PC 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.93-111
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    • 2013
  • As Internet and information technology (IT) continues to develop and evolve, the issue of big data has emerged at the foreground of scholarly and industrial attention. Big data is generally defined as data that exceed the range that can be collected, stored, managed and analyzed by existing conventional information systems and it also refers to the new technologies designed to effectively extract values from such data. With the widespread dissemination of IT systems, continual efforts have been made in various fields of industry such as R&D, manufacturing, and finance to collect and analyze immense quantities of data in order to extract meaningful information and to use this information to solve various problems. Since IT has converged with various industries in many aspects, digital data are now being generated at a remarkably accelerating rate while developments in state-of-the-art technology have led to continual enhancements in system performance. The types of big data that are currently receiving the most attention include information available within companies, such as information on consumer characteristics, information on purchase records, logistics information and log information indicating the usage of products and services by consumers, as well as information accumulated outside companies, such as information on the web search traffic of online users, social network information, and patent information. Among these various types of big data, web searches performed by online users constitute one of the most effective and important sources of information for marketing purposes because consumers search for information on the internet in order to make efficient and rational choices. Recently, Google has provided public access to its information on the web search traffic of online users through a service named Google Trends. Research that uses this web search traffic information to analyze the information search behavior of online users is now receiving much attention in academia and in fields of industry. Studies using web search traffic information can be broadly classified into two fields. The first field consists of empirical demonstrations that show how web search information can be used to forecast social phenomena, the purchasing power of consumers, the outcomes of political elections, etc. The other field focuses on using web search traffic information to observe consumer behavior, identifying the attributes of a product that consumers regard as important or tracking changes on consumers' expectations, for example, but relatively less research has been completed in this field. In particular, to the extent of our knowledge, hardly any studies related to brands have yet attempted to use web search traffic information to analyze the factors that influence consumers' purchasing activities. This study aims to demonstrate that consumers' web search traffic information can be used to derive the relations among brands and the relations between an individual brand and product attributes. When consumers input their search words on the web, they may use a single keyword for the search, but they also often input multiple keywords to seek related information (this is referred to as simultaneous searching). A consumer performs a simultaneous search either to simultaneously compare two product brands to obtain information on their similarities and differences, or to acquire more in-depth information about a specific attribute in a specific brand. Web search traffic information shows that the quantity of simultaneous searches using certain keywords increases when the relation is closer in the consumer's mind and it will be possible to derive the relations between each of the keywords by collecting this relational data and subjecting it to network analysis. Accordingly, this study proposes a method of analyzing how brands are positioned by consumers and what relationships exist between product attributes and an individual brand, using simultaneous search traffic information. It also presents case studies demonstrating the actual application of this method, with a focus on tablets, belonging to innovative product groups.