• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경향적 하락

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Trade-off Analysis Between National Ecosystem Services Due to Long-term Land Cover Changes (장기간 토지피복 변화에 따른 국내 생태계서비스 간 상쇄효과(Trade-off) 분석)

  • Yoon-Sun Park;Young-Keun Song
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.204-216
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    • 2024
  • Understanding the trade-off effect in ecosystem services and measuring the interrelationships between services are crucial for managing limited environmental resources. Accordingly, in this study, we identified the dominant trends and increases and decreases in ecosystem services derived from changes in land cover over about 30 years and tracked changes in the relationships between ecosystem services that occurred over time. Through it, we determined the relationship between land cover changes and ecosystem service changes, as well as the distinct characteristics of service changes in different areas. The research primarily utilized the InVEST model, an ecosystem service assessment model. After standardizing the evaluation results between 0 and 1, it went through principal component analysis, a dimensionality reduction technique, to observe the time-series changes and understand the relationships between the services. According to the research results, the area of urbanized regions dramatically increased between 1989 and 2019, while forests showed a significant increase between 2009 and 2019. Between 1989 and 2019, the national ecosystem service supply witnessed a 13.9% decrease in water supply, a 10.5% decrease in nitrogen retention, a 2.6% increase in phosphorus retention, a 0.9% decrease in carbon storage, a 1.2% increase in air purification, and a 3.4% decrease in habitat quality. Over the past 30 years, South Korea experienced an increase in urbanized areas, a decrease in agricultural land, and an increase in forests, resulting in a trade-off effect between phosphorus retention and habitat quality. This study concluded that South Korea's environment management policies contribute to improving ecosystem quality, which has declined due to urbanization, and maximizing ecosystem services. These findings can help policymakers establish and implement forestry policies focusing on sustainable environmental conservation and ecosystem service provision.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Self-optimizing feature selection algorithm for enhancing campaign effectiveness (캠페인 효과 제고를 위한 자기 최적화 변수 선택 알고리즘)

  • Seo, Jeoung-soo;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.173-198
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    • 2020
  • For a long time, many studies have been conducted on predicting the success of campaigns for customers in academia, and prediction models applying various techniques are still being studied. Recently, as campaign channels have been expanded in various ways due to the rapid revitalization of online, various types of campaigns are being carried out by companies at a level that cannot be compared to the past. However, customers tend to perceive it as spam as the fatigue of campaigns due to duplicate exposure increases. Also, from a corporate standpoint, there is a problem that the effectiveness of the campaign itself is decreasing, such as increasing the cost of investing in the campaign, which leads to the low actual campaign success rate. Accordingly, various studies are ongoing to improve the effectiveness of the campaign in practice. This campaign system has the ultimate purpose to increase the success rate of various campaigns by collecting and analyzing various data related to customers and using them for campaigns. In particular, recent attempts to make various predictions related to the response of campaigns using machine learning have been made. It is very important to select appropriate features due to the various features of campaign data. If all of the input data are used in the process of classifying a large amount of data, it takes a lot of learning time as the classification class expands, so the minimum input data set must be extracted and used from the entire data. In addition, when a trained model is generated by using too many features, prediction accuracy may be degraded due to overfitting or correlation between features. Therefore, in order to improve accuracy, a feature selection technique that removes features close to noise should be applied, and feature selection is a necessary process in order to analyze a high-dimensional data set. Among the greedy algorithms, SFS (Sequential Forward Selection), SBS (Sequential Backward Selection), SFFS (Sequential Floating Forward Selection), etc. are widely used as traditional feature selection techniques. It is also true that if there are many risks and many features, there is a limitation in that the performance for classification prediction is poor and it takes a lot of learning time. Therefore, in this study, we propose an improved feature selection algorithm to enhance the effectiveness of the existing campaign. The purpose of this study is to improve the existing SFFS sequential method in the process of searching for feature subsets that are the basis for improving machine learning model performance using statistical characteristics of the data to be processed in the campaign system. Through this, features that have a lot of influence on performance are first derived, features that have a negative effect are removed, and then the sequential method is applied to increase the efficiency for search performance and to apply an improved algorithm to enable generalized prediction. Through this, it was confirmed that the proposed model showed better search and prediction performance than the traditional greed algorithm. Compared with the original data set, greed algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), and recursive feature elimination (RFE), the campaign success prediction was higher. In addition, when performing campaign success prediction, the improved feature selection algorithm was found to be helpful in analyzing and interpreting the prediction results by providing the importance of the derived features. This is important features such as age, customer rating, and sales, which were previously known statistically. Unlike the previous campaign planners, features such as the combined product name, average 3-month data consumption rate, and the last 3-month wireless data usage were unexpectedly selected as important features for the campaign response, which they rarely used to select campaign targets. It was confirmed that base attributes can also be very important features depending on the type of campaign. Through this, it is possible to analyze and understand the important characteristics of each campaign type.