• Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
• /
• v.22 no.1
• /
• pp.135-160
• /
• 2018

This study aims to predict the likely effect of economic sanctions on North Korea by examining case studies of Iran and Iraq. While UN sanctions against Iraq had immediate negative consequences for society, such as causing famine and reinforcing the authoritarian regime, sanctions against Iran had some productive consequences after they were reinforced by the U.S. and EU in significantly reduced oil exports and government expenditure, which in turn led to regime change and willingness to negotiate nuclear programs for economic recovery. Apart from these distinct differences, sanctions in both countries caused high inflation, shortage of necessary supplies, and increased unemployment. Case studies of Iran and Iraq also reveal that the sanctions disproportionately affected women and children, which implies that the recently reinforced economic sanctions of the U.S. and China against North Korea will cause more suffering of similarly socially marginalized groups in North Korea.

• Science & Technology Policy
• /
• v.13 no.4 s.142
• /
• pp.90-101
• /
• 2003

대량살상무기의 확산을 근본적으로 차단하기 위한 경제 제재의 활용은 1990년대에 들어서 새로운 차원으로 전개됨. 이전시기까지 제정된 법규들은 특정한 핵확산 활동에 관여한 국가들에 대한 외국원조의 중단을 요구하였으며, 해당 국가들이 관련 조약 및 국제협약상의 목표를 준수하게끔 하나의 가능한 메커니즘으로서 제재 방안들을 규정함. 1990년에 들어서서 미 의회는 미사일 확산에 관련되어 무역제재를 위한 명확한 지침을 입법화함. 1990년에 들어서 무기수출통제법(Arms Export Control Act)과 1979년 수출관리법 (Export Adminstration Act of 1979)에 미사일기술통제레짐의 부속서(MTCR Annex)에 등재된 품목이나 기술을 거래하는데 관여한 미국 시민 또는 외국인에 대해 미 대통령이 규제를 부과한다는 점이 필수사항으로 첨가됨. 이어서 미 의회는 광범위한 형태의 법률을 통해 생ㆍ화학무기 및 핵무기의 확산에 기여하는 국가들에 대해 경제제재를 가할 것을 입법화함. 본 보고서에서는 미국내 비확산 규정을 위반한 국가, 기업 또는 개인들에 대해 일종의 경제제재를 부과하는 것을 요구하거나 승인하는 법규들을 간략히 서술하고 있음. 다음에 열거하는 각각의 규정에는 제재 부과의 이유, 제재 기간에 관련된 정보를 포함하여, 미 대통령이 제재 부과를 연기, 중단 및 포기할 수 있는 권한의 구체적 내용들을 서술함.

• Strategy21
• /
• s.46
• /
• pp.239-276
• /
• 2020

The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.25-57
• /
• 2021

As the strategic competition between the United States and China for global hegemony intensifies, China is using economic sanctions against other countries more and more frequently. Republic of Korea, which has China as its largest trading partner but is an ally of the United States, is more likely to be a target of economic sanctions, as seen in China's retaliation toward its deployment of a THAAD missile-defense system. Against the background, this paper analyzes China's economic sanctions, especially focusing on its informality. China does not publicly declare economic sanctions in most cases, such as Korean one, in which the trade structure is in its favor and can take advantage of its position as a big buyer with huge markets. However, China responds in a more open and formal manner when it is related to its core interests, when it is impossible to exert substantial sanctions effect and when mutual disputes intensify and cannot maintain informality. Korea, which is vulnerable to China's informal economic sanctions, should prepare for them by analyzing the characteristics of China's economic sanctions in depth and thinking about various strategies and measures in advance.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.1-32
• /
• 2013

Economic sanctions and inducements are types of 'policy instruments' based on 'economic tools' to influence other international actors. Ongoing debates on sanctions and inducements have exposed drawbacks for relying on individual case studies. There are some studies in the literature that attempt theoretical analysis of sanctions and inducements, but they are mostly based on rational choice theory. In reality, however, there exist so many cases that cannot be explained by rational choice theory. These are called anomalies or exceptions. The literature introduces specific variables to interpret these anomalies and thus sacrifice the universality of the theory. From this point of view, prospect theory would present an effective tool to analyze economic sanctions and inducements. It is a behavioral economic theory that tries to model a decisions making process in reality. The theory says that people make decisions based on subjective value of losses and gains from an individual reference point, and that people evaluate these losses and gains using heuristics. Thus prospect theory could offer a different frame which has greater explanatory range without adding new variables. As a result of this study, target's losses of 'back down' towards economic sanctions loom larger when the reference point level increases, therefore, the effectiveness of sanctions decreases. However, target's losses of 'stand firm' towards economic inducements loom larger under the same condition of reference point, therefore, the effectiveness of inducements increases. The findings of the paper suggest meaningful implications to the economic policy towards North Korea.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.117-154
• /
• 2022

The purpose of this study is to verify the practical validity of financial sanctions, which has recently emerged as the most powerful form of economic sanctions preferred by U.S. foreign policy tool. Based on the theoretical discussion, analyse this study the trend of de-dollarization appearing in connection with financial sanctions and argue that the effectiveness of financial sanctions erode the dollar financial hegemony, which is the source of its power can be degraded, so that its effectiveness could not be so great as most people likely think about. After World War II, there has been an increasing tendency in the international community to favor economic sanctions over the use of military force as an effective means of foreign policy. Among these economic sanctions, a distinct feature that has recently appeared is the remarkable increase in the frequency of use of financial sanctions. The country that favors financial sanctions most is the United States. The reason is that they believe that the power of their own dollar financial hegemony can exert deadly pressure on other countries. Financial sanctions favored by the United States are said to have increased the effectiveness of sanctions by upgrading the pressure of sanctions to the next level. Nevertheless, financial sanctions have a side that underestimates the cost. This problem is found in the signs that the backlash from not only countries subject to financial sanctions but also many countries with interests in these countries is leading to a tendency to de-dollarization. This study will try to see how likely this de-dollarization trend is to offset the effectiveness of financial sanctions.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.48 no.1
• /
• pp.165-191
• /
• 2023

The US and EU have imposed energy sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector in response to the Ukraine crisis. One of the key measures is to cut oil and gas imports from Russia. The US and EU are both the senders of sanctions against Russia. However, there is a fundamental difference between them. While the US is the net oil and gas exporter, most EU member states are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. If the US and other major oil and gas exporting countries can replace Russia in the EU energy market, the effectiveness of energy sanctions against Russia can be guaranteed. Our result shows that it is difficult for the major oil and gas exporters to fully replace Russia in the short run because of the lack of additional production capacity and infrastructure. We conclude that the US and EU's energy sanctions against Russia can not guarantee its effectiveness. We argue that other measures, such as diplomacy, should be taken to settle the conflicts in Ukraine.

• KDI북한경제리뷰
• /
• v.21 no.12
• /
• pp.15-28
• /
• 2019

• 해운
• /
• no.10 s.32
• /
• pp.21-26
• /
• 2006

북한의 핵실험으로 국제사회가 술렁이고 있다. 특히, 유엔 안전보장이사회는 대북제재 결의안을 통과시키는 등 경제적인 제재를 포함한 다각적인 규제방안을 모색하고 있다. 북한의 핵실험은 이제 국제적인 이슈로 부각되었으며, 우리 경제에도 영향을 미칠 것으로 전망되고 있다. 다음은 대외경제정책연구원이 발표한 '북한핵실험이 한국경제에 미치는 영향'을 정리한 것이다

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.405-421
• /
• 2019

International aid to North Korea remains far below the humanitarian needs of vulnerable people. This paper examines the trajectory of international humanitarian assistance to North Korea over the last two decades with the focus on its decline in the context of the country's nuclear standoff and corresponding stringent sanctions. In so doing, the paper addresses major problems associated with North Korea's reception of foreign aid and operational constraints placed on humanitarian activities in the country. It shows that humanitarian assistance to North Korea has been largely shaped by geopolitical dynamics. A survey of UN reports and statistics also suggests a shifting trend in recent international aid to North Korea. The decline of aid and multiple operational obstacles faced by humanitarian organizations, for instance, have led to a fall in agricultural support and a proportional rise in health and related services. While UN Security Council resolutions include an exemption provision, humanitarian assistance to North Korea has been constrained by stringent sanctions, which have led to adverse consequences for the civilian population. In this regard, the paper suggests some policy directions for international aid to North Korea amidst negotiations over denuclearization, while stressing an urgent need to address the negative impact of sanctions on vulnerable groups in the country.