• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1175-1188
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• 2015

The Ministry of Education of Korea announced the university structural reform plans which reduces 160,000 of the university entrance quota during 10 years from January 2014. Because the reduction plans of entrance quota influence regional economy as well as students and universities, naive evidence of the Ministry of Education of Korea is disappointed. In this research, we forecast the total number of the university entrance exam candidate by 2032 including not only third grade high school students but also repeaters according to the 16 metropolises and provinces in Korea. We also forecast the regional university recruiting rate using the forecasts of the total number of the university entrance exam candidates. However, we can not make more realistic results because we can not apply the inter-regional movement of students to the forecast. In order to handle this limitation, we first estimated the rank of the whole 7,277 departments of all universities in Korea and assigned the quotas according to the estimated rank for each departments and then we calculated the local university recruiting rate. The estimated the university recruiting rates of 16 metropolises and provinces can provide more noticeable results of characteristics and problems than that of nationwide.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.735-761
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• 2004

As a possible alternative to Traditional Discounted Cash Flow Method, "Option Pricing Model" has drawn academic attentions for the last a few decades. However, it has failed to replace traditional DCF method practically due to its mathematical complexity. This paper introduces an option pricing valuation model specifically adjusted for the natural resource development projects. We add market information and industry-specific features into the model so that the model remains objective as well as realistic after the adjustment. The following two features of natural resource development projects take central parts in model construction; product price is a unique source of cash flow's uncertainty, and the projects have cost structure from capital-intense industry, in which initial capital cost takes most part of total cost during the projects. To improve the adaptability of Option Pricing Model specifically to the natural resource development projects, we use Two-Factor Model and Long-term Asset Model for the analysis. Although the model introduced in this paper is still simple and reflects limited reality, we expect an improvement in applicability of option pricing method for the evaluation of natural resource development projects can be made through the process taken in this paper.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.25-36
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• 2010

The generally known important functions of forests include air purification and the health benefits that humans can receive when relaxing and enjoying recreation in the forests. In recent years, people have appreciated the value of the natural environment but it is not easy to answer the question how much monetary value a natural environment has. Because environmental property is public property, which is not traded on the market, market prices cannot be established, so it is not easy to assess the currency value. Methods for estimating environmental property value have been studied by economists. The representative method for measuring environmental property value is a contingent valuation method, or CVM. Various methods have been researched and attempted along with the development and fusion of mathematics, statistics, and economics. Representative methods of CVM are single-bound and double-bound logit and probit methods. This study has been carried out to compare four estimates. Estimates are as follows: the lowest estimate is derived from a single-bound logit WTPmedian while the highest estimate is from double-bound probit WTPmean. While there are some preceding studies on price estimation and methods of measurement through CVM, they offer only partial comparisons. This study suggests four analytic methods and prices through 1,123 questionnaires. The results can be used for the subsequent comparison of estimate prices and the methods of measurement

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.779-793
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• 1998

In this study, for the purpose of water supply planning, we propose a sophisticated multi-period mixed integer programming model that can coordinate the behavior of multi-reservoir operation, minimizing unnecessary spill. It can simulate the system with operating rules which are self- generated by the optimization engine in the algorithm. It is an optimization model in structure, but it indeed simulates the coordinating behavior of multi-reservoir operation. It minimizes the water shortfalls in demand requirements, maintaining flood reserve volume, minimizing unnecessary spill, maximizing hydropower generation release, keeping water storage levels high for efficient hydroelectric turbine operation. This optimization model is a large scale mixed integer programming problem that consists of 3.920 integer variables and 68.658 by 132.384 node-arc incidence matrix for 28 years of data. In order to handle the enormous amount of data generated by a big mathematical model, the utilization of DBMS (data base management system)seems to be inevitable. It has been tested with the Han River multi-reservoir system in Korea, which consists of 2 large multipurpose dams and 3 hydroelectric dams. We demonstrated successfully that there is a good chance of saving substantial amount of water should it be put to use in real time with a good inflow forecasting system.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.3A
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• pp.193-200
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• 2010

Structural design requires simultaneously to ensure safety by considering quantitatively uncertainties in the applied loadings, material properties and fabrication error and to maximize economical efficiency. As a solution, system reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO), which takes into consideration both uncertainties and economical efficiency, has been extensively researched and numerous attempts have been done to apply it to structural design. Contrary to conventional deterministic optimization, SRBDO involves the evaluation of component and system probabilistic constraints. However, because of the complicated algorithm for calculating component reliability indices and system reliability, excessive computational time is required when the large-scale finite element analysis is involved in evaluating the probabilistic constraints. Accordingly, an algorithm for SRBDO exhibiting improved stability and efficiency needs to be developed for the large-scale problems. In this study, a more stable and efficient SRBDO based on the performance measure approach (PMA) is developed. PMA shows good performance when it is applied to reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) which has only component probabilistic constraints. However, PMA could not be applied to SRBDO because PMA only calculates the probabilistic performance measure for limit state functions and does not evaluate the reliability indices. In order to overcome these difficulties, the decoupled algorithm is proposed where RBDO based on PMA is sequentially performed with updated target component reliability indices until the calculated system reliability index approaches the target system reliability index. Through a mathematical problem and ten-bar truss problem, the proposed method shows better convergence and efficiency than other approaches.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.384-398
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• 1991

A computer program was developed to select the optimum size of farm machine and analyze its operation costs according to various farming conditions. It was written in FORTRAN 77 and BASIC languages and can be run on any personal computer having Korean Standard Complete Type and Korean Language Code. The program was developed as a user-friendly type so that users can carry out easily the costs analysis for the whole farm work or respective operation in rice production, and for plowing, rotarying and pest controlling in upland. The program can analyze simultaneously three different machines in plowing & rotarying and two machines in transplanting, pest controlling and harvesting operations. The input data are the sizes of arable lands, possible working days and number of laborers during the opimum working period, and custom rates varying depending on regions and individual farming conditions. We can find out the results such as the selected optimum combination farm machines, the overs and shorts of working days relative to the planned working period, capacities of the machines, break-even points by custom rate, fixed costs for a month, and utilization costs in a hectare.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.95-104
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• 2010

The tap water supply in Korea mainly depends on the surface water. However, the advanced water purification process becomes a necessity due to the deterioration of surface water quality and the risk of accidental spill. High cost of water treatment and public concerns make the decision makers turn to riverbank filtration as an alternative to the surface water. Riverbank filtration has been employed for water supply in many developed countries for more than 150 years. In Korea, riverbank filtration has drawn attention since 1990s as a supply source having potential to stably meet the ever-increasing water demand. Some cities located in the Nakdong River Basin are currently supplying water through riverbank filtration. This work studies the site suitability analysis for riverbank filtration using game theory. Theory of games, which is a branch of applied mathematics used in social sciences (most notably economics), biology, engineering and computer science, was applied to candidate locations for the selection of riverbank filtration site. We proposed a policy game model as a new method adopting a probabilistic approach. The model developed turned out to be an effective tool for site selection.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.67-68
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• 2001

제지공장은 에너지 다소비 업종이며 고도의 장치산업이기 때문에 초지 설비의 효과적 운영을 통한 생산성 극대화가 경제성과 직결되어 었다. 또한 24시간 연속생산을 하는 초지 설비로 소비자가 선호하는 품질의 종이를 생산하기 위해서는 공정의 안정성 이 매우 중요하다. 이는 공정의 불안정화는 생산제품의 품질 변화를 유발함으로써 균일 성을 저하시키는 악영향을 미치기 때문이다. 제지 공정의 안정화를 저해하는 인자에는 지절, 지종 변화, 조업중단, 조업재개 둥과 공정의 특성상 수반되는 돌발사태 등이 있을 수 있다. 이들 인자 가운데 가장 심각하게 공정의 안정성을 악화시키는 것은 지절의 발 생이라 할 수 있다. 지절이 발생되면 생산성 저하 등의 여러 문제점이 발생하기도 하지 만 다량의 파지가 발생되기 때문에 공정 안정성 면에서 볼 때에도 부득이하게 생성된 다량의 파지를 공정에 재투입하기 위해 재해리해야하므로 많은 양의 백수가 소모되며 이에 따라 예기치 않은 공정 백수의 사용으로 전체 백수계에 갑작스런 변동이 생기게 된다. 백수가 파지의 해리에 사용됨에 따라 공정 내에는 추가적인 청수가 공급되어야 하므로 전체적으로는 청수의 사용량도 늘어난다. 또한 증가된 파지의 재사용도 대부분 의 공장에서 broke chest의 용량이 한정되어 있으므로 이의 적절한 컨트롤은 중요하다. 더욱이 점차 공정이 고폐쇄화됨에 따라 공정 컨트롤에 대한 여유가 적으므로 백수와 공정의 관리는 점차 어려워지고 있다. 공정 시율레이션은 현존하는 공정을 수학적으로 모델화하여 이를 컴퓨터 하드 왜어를 이용해 실제 공장에서 일어나는 상황을 모사하는 것이다. 이러한 공정 모사는 새로운 공장을 설계하기 전에 타당성 조사와 여러 가지 사례조사를 실시할 때, 기존 공 장의 개조나 증설 또는 기존 공장의 운전조건을 실제로 변경하기 전에도 미리 모사를 함으로써 실제 시험 운전을 하는 경우 보다 많은 비용과 시간을 절약할 수 있다. 본 연 구는 백상지 생산 공정 설계도면을 참고하여 상용 시율레이터로 시율레이션 모델을 구 축하고 이를 기반으로 지절 상황을 모사하였으며, 지절 후의 공정 불안정화 상황을 파 악하였다. 또한 이러한 상황의 대책을 강구하기 위해 다양한 공정 조절 방안을 시율레이션 모댈에 적용하여 그 결과를 해석하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.52-62
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• 2013

A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.180-194
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• 2015

On roads vehicles are the bossy, while pedestrians are the frangible. The current paper has a purpose for contributing to pedestrian's safety. First, it studies the association between demographic parameters and TPB(Theory of Planned Behavior)'s variables(pedestrian's attitude toward crossing behavior in roads, personal norm, etc.) and his/her crossing intention, perceived risk while crossing, and the experience of past traffic accidents. Its sample comes from a specific population(college students). Further, the present study endeavors to explain the portion of human cognitive failure/error, impulsiveness, time perspective, and probabilistic/math-logical judgment ability in pedestrian's riky crossings on roads. Research results found that TPB variables and such a few human characteristics have some significant association with the risky crossing intention on the road. Considering the human psychological portion in pedestrian accidents would help us prevent the accidents and reduce unhappiness of the accidents and, further, economic loss and insurance expenditure related with the accidents.