• Journal of agriculture & life science
• /
• v.46 no.6
• /
• pp.173-184
• /
• 2012

The objectives of this study are to analyze the factors affecting the structural changes of agricultural land use in Gyeongsangnam-do and to prospect for its future use. Seven commodity groups are categorized to include all agricultural products: rice, summer food crops, summer vegetables and other cash crops, fruits, barley, winter field vegetables, and winter greenhouse vegetables. We developed a model for acreage distribution among the seven commodity groups, and estimated the economic relations between prices and acreage distribution. The results showed positive relations exist between cultivating acreage and own commodity prices in all commodity groups, whereas competitive relations exist between summer commodity groups or winter commodity groups such that rice price decreases led to increases of fruits cultivating acreage or vice versa and winter vegetable price increases led to increases of winter greenhouse vegetables cultivating acreage or vice versa. Further, acreage elasticities with respect to own commodity prices or farm wage rates are estimated over the last 30 years, and future agricultural land use in Gyeongsangnam-do is prospected based on three different scenarios. Total agricultural land use in Gyeongsangnam-do will be decreased over the next 10 years from 159,000 ha in year 2010 to 143,000~153,000 ha in year 2020. By commodity group, cultivating acreage of rice, summer food crops, and barley will be decreased while cultivating acreage of summer vegetables, fruits, winter field vegetables, and winter greenhouse vegetables will be stagnant.