• Journal of agriculture & life science
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.173-184
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• 2012

The objectives of this study are to analyze the factors affecting the structural changes of agricultural land use in Gyeongsangnam-do and to prospect for its future use. Seven commodity groups are categorized to include all agricultural products: rice, summer food crops, summer vegetables and other cash crops, fruits, barley, winter field vegetables, and winter greenhouse vegetables. We developed a model for acreage distribution among the seven commodity groups, and estimated the economic relations between prices and acreage distribution. The results showed positive relations exist between cultivating acreage and own commodity prices in all commodity groups, whereas competitive relations exist between summer commodity groups or winter commodity groups such that rice price decreases led to increases of fruits cultivating acreage or vice versa and winter vegetable price increases led to increases of winter greenhouse vegetables cultivating acreage or vice versa. Further, acreage elasticities with respect to own commodity prices or farm wage rates are estimated over the last 30 years, and future agricultural land use in Gyeongsangnam-do is prospected based on three different scenarios. Total agricultural land use in Gyeongsangnam-do will be decreased over the next 10 years from 159,000 ha in year 2010 to 143,000~153,000 ha in year 2020. By commodity group, cultivating acreage of rice, summer food crops, and barley will be decreased while cultivating acreage of summer vegetables, fruits, winter field vegetables, and winter greenhouse vegetables will be stagnant.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.47-64
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• 2013

Landscape structure changes over the past three decades were determined with land use and land cover(LULC) maps, and their relationships with mean air temperature time series were the analyzed for the Busan metropolitan area and South Kyeongsang Province, Korea. The geometric structures of the LULC data were quantitatively represented based on FRAGSTATS, a spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. FRAGSTATS-derived landscape metrics confirmed that there were major changes in LULC and landscape fragmentation in the region. Meteorological observation records showed that mean air temperature had increased from $14.1^{\circ}C$ in the 1990's to $14.8^{\circ}C$ in the 2000's in Busan. For South Kyeongsang Province, they increased from $13.2^{\circ}C$ to $13.9^{\circ}C$ during the same time period. These long-term temperature changes are correlated with typical spatial pattern changes of LULC in the southeastern region of the country. Spatial metrics analysis showed that urban area expanded from 9.7% to 26.8% of Busan while forest and agricultural land decreased by 9.6% and 14.9%, respectively over the past thirty years. The significant urbanization are tightly associated with deforestation, removal of agricultural land, and fast temperature increases since the 1990's. The urban area of South Kyeongsang Province rapidly increased, and it became 12 times as large as it was. The degree of temperature increases differed among three different sub-regions. The temperature increasing rate was lowest in the coastal region while the colder mountainous region had the highest figure.