• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.217-239
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• 2008

The purpose of this paper examines the way the potential for increased procyclicality may arise in Korea according to the introduction of Basel II based on the empirical results of U.K. and Spain. Because of the limited retail banking data, the correlations between risk-weighted assets corresponding to the denominator of the capital ratio and procyclicality, and capital ratio and the procyclicality are analyzed in Korea. As a result, there is a high possibility that the procyclicality may occur in Korea. However, there are limitations in judging the existence of the procyclicality for the capital in Korea only based on those correlations. In the future, in case more of retail banking data are accumulated, the procyclicality in Korea should be examined based on the systematic model like the cases in England and Spain. Lastly, the policy implications are derived based on the calculation process of the regulatory capital(Pillar I), the process of the Financial Authorities(Pillar II), and the market discipline(Pillar III).

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.77-114
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• 2003

Analyses of the special data sets constructed from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics reveal that, compared with an annual wage measure, survey week wages are significantly counter-cyclically biased due to selecting workers with strong labor market attachment. We also find that survey week wages are more counter-cyclically biased in high-wage industries than in low-wage industries, that is, inter-industry gaps of survey week wages are counter-cyclically biased. Unlike existing longitudinal studies, the current study concludes that real wages are much more procyclical in high-wage industries than in low-wage industries, which is attributed to our adoption of annual wages that is less subject to the selectivity bias. Our finding is consistent with the empirical regularity that real wages are much more procyclical for men than for women, as men are overrepresented in industries with greater real wage procyclicalities. Overall, current results do not support the predictions of segmented labor market theories for the cyclicality of real wages.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.41-59
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• 2018

After global financial crisis, policy makers in major countries tried to find a new bank recovery and resolution policy. The new policy intends to normalize the market not by bail-out approach in which public funds should be provided bankrupt banks, but by market discipline approach in which unsecured creditors take part in liquidation process. Bail-in system is a new and dominant financial policy after crisis period in resolution regimes led by the government administration. This study tries to analyze the relationship between bail-in system and pro-cyclicality. Empirical analysis has been done by taking the basis of the 8 year data from 2008 to 2015, which is selected from financial statistics information system of Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Accounting and financial data are collected from the dataguide 5.0 between 2008 and 2015. Through the analysis, the effect of bail-out system and bail-in system on pro-cyclicality of total loans did not show the statistically significant relationship. However the effect of bail-out system on pro-cyclicality of SME loans showed the statistically significant relationship, meanwhile the effect of bail-in system on pro-cyclicality of SME loans did not show the statistically significant relationship. In conclusion, bail-in system can be useful policy which improves the support and promotion of SMEs.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.177-196
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• 2007

This paper investigates the cyclical patterns of buffer capital using an unbalanced panel data for the banks in 30 OECD countries and 7 non-OECD Asian countries. We test whether the relationships between buffer capital and business cycle are systematically different across country groups controlling for other potential determinants of bank capital. We find that the correlation is positive for developed countries while it is negative for Asian developing countries. These findings suggest that, once Basel II is implemented, developing countries are more likely to observe an increase in output volatility. We then review the policy recommendations to mitigate the procyclicality problem of Basel II.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.1-32
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• 2002

This paper investigates how real wages adjust to regional and cyclical shocks in the Korean labor market. Major findings are as follows. First, like most longitudinal studies in this literature, we find that real wages are strongly procyclical and more procyclical for men than for women. Second, consistent with the theory prediction of efficiency wages, both permanent and transitory components of real wages are negatively correlated with the local unemployment rate. Third, when overall and local unemployment rates compete in a wage equation (our preferred specification), current wages are dominantly affected by the overall rate, and the effect of the local rate is rather small. This rejects the Blanchflower and Oswald's hypothesis that wages are primarily determined by local labor market conditions. Finally, no lagged effects on wages are detected in the overall or local unemployment rate.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.97-129
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• 2006

This study investigates whether dynamic loan loss provisioning is necessary in Korean banking environments. Under the dynamic provisioning rule banks are required to accumulate additional reserves to general and specific provisionings in preparation for expected loan losses until maturity. This provisioning is most effective in the case that banks tend to recognize less loan losses in the business upturns and/or in the periods of increasing profits. The empirical study, however, shows that banks support procyclicality of loan loss privisioning and earning smoothing behavior over profit fluctuations. These findings suggest that Korea would not seriously need the introduction of dynamic loan loss provisioning. But this policy implication does not seem robust in view that the recent experience shows the countercyclicality of loan loss provisioning practices and negative correlation between earnings and provisioning after financial restructuring was completed. This result is partly attributable to vigorous shareholder activism because of high foreign ownership of most commercial banks. Once it is true that bank management is more interested in short-term performances, current loan loss provisioning would have attributes of impairing capital adequacy, hence strengthening loan loss provisiong requirements.

• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.25-56
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• 2008

본 연구는 경기순환이 심한 대규모 장치산업에서 투자행동을 어떻게 하는 것이 경기순환의 악영향을 최소화하면서 수익성을 극대화시키는가를 밝히는 것을 목적으로 한다. 대규모 장치산업에서는 호황기에 투자가 집중되는데, 완공까지 걸리는 시간 때문에 적정 수준을 넘어 투자가 이루어지고 이것이 다시 불황기를 불러옴으로써 경기순환이 반복된다. 위와 같은 장치산업의 특성을 반영하여 산업 동태모형을 구성하고 다양한 전략들에 대해 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 일반적인 투자행동 방식인 시황순응 투자는 경기순환에 따른 수익의 부침을 초래할 뿐만 아니라 그것을 지속시킨다. 둘째, 가동률의 신축적 조절이나 설비구축기간의 단축과 같은 유연화 전략은 수익성의 제고와 수익 안정화에 크게 기여한다. 셋째, 수요가 정체된 시장에서는 일정한 투자가 바람직하고, 수요가 성장하는 시장에서는 시황에 역행하는 투자가 바람직하다. 결국 경기순환이 존재하는 산업에서는 유연화 전략 및 변형투자 전략을 통해서 투자행동을 경쟁업체들과 비동기화 시키는 것이 바람직하다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.239-261
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• 2011

The cyclicality of productivity has been one of the essential issues in macroeconomics. Since Solow(1957) developed the dominant approach to the measurement of productivity growth, Solow's approach, which assumes the perfect competition, the constant returns to scale, and the full use of input factor has been modified particularly in Hall's(1990) and Basu's(1996) works. Their researches take account of market power, returns to scale, and variable factor utilization. This paper establishes the empirical model based on Hall's(1990) and Basu's(1996) models, estimates 4 types of Solow's reidual in manufacturing and 2 service industries over the period 1975:1-2010:4, and analyzes the cyclicality of measured productivity. The result proved the measured productivity to be procyclical in manufacturing industries and electricity and water industry, and in contrast to the Basu's, the variable factor utilization transformed the countercyclicality of measured productivity into its procyclicality in the Korean economy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.1-27
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• 2012

This paper attempts to define, construct a policy framework, and analyze interactions with monetary policy of macroprudential policy. The available pieces of evidence suggest that the effects of the LTV and DTI regulations for financial stability are rather unclear in Korea. It also shows that when financial markets exhibit instability in a stable inflationary environment, macroprudential policy could run into conflict with monetary policy. This paper proposes an appropriate modality of macroprudential policy to minimize the potential conflict with monetary policy.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.117-156
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• 2012

This paper decomposes and estimates trend/cyclical components of some key macro variables-GDP, inflation, and interest rate, using a simple DSGE model along with flexible trend specification. The extracted cyclical components of output and interest rate are similar to HP-filtered counterparts, despite some differences in persistence and volatility, while inflation resembles that from BK filtering. This implies that the usual practice of applying a single filtering method to the data of interest may be problematic. When the baseline model is extended to incorporate consumption habit and price indexation, habit turns out to be important in explaining the persistence of business cycles. Comparison of several alternative models shows that the usual practice of estimation of DSGE model using filtered data leads to biased results. Finally, various sensitivity analyses illustrate that (1) allowing for correlation between structural cyclical shocks and trend shocks and (2) including irregular components (in inflation rate) may deliver interesting/important implication for gap estimates.