• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결함 예측

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The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

Elementary School Students' Polar Literacy (초등학생들의 극지 소양)

  • Choi, Haneul;Chung, Sueim;Kim, Minji;Shin, Donghee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2022
  • The need for polar education was further emphasized, depending on the importance of the pole, which is the best place for climate change detection and prediction, and treasure trove of future technology and resources. Therefore, this study analyzed the general cognitive and affective characteristics of elementary school students' polar literacy, and in addition, analyzed the cognitive and affective characteristics according to the level of diversity about polar experience. The items developed for the study were revised through a pilot survey of 43 fifth graders. They consisted of questions about gender, polar experience, scientific literacy, polar knowledge, polar literacy skills, polar literacy beliefs, and polar literacy attitudes. The types of questions used are selectable, reliable, and Likert (4 points), for a total of 66 questions. The students who participated in the study were 323 fifth grade elementary students. The study found that students were more interested in the dramatic consequences of polar changes than the scientific causes and processes associated with it. This is confirmed through the fact that they are more interested in and familiar with polar creatures suffering from polar changes than understanding ice, which is the main feature of and the central mechanism of polar changes. Students also recognized the issue of polar climate change as a global issue other than their own. They believe that what happens in the Arctic and Antarctica will affect the whole world, but not significantly to himself and his community. The level of knowledge about polar region and the ability to analyze and infer were not significantly related to each other, and students with a higher level of diversity of experience about polar region had a better understanding of polar science and technology. In this research, it is meaningful to check the characteristics related to the students' polar region and to use it as a basic data to show the direction in which polar literacy education should proceed in the future.

The Economic Cycle and Contributing Factors to the Operating Profit Ratio of Korean Liner Shipping (경기순환과 우리나라 정기선 해운의 영업이익률 변동 요인)

  • Mok, Ick-soo;Ryoo, Dong-keun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.375-384
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    • 2022
  • The shipping industry is cyclically impacted by complex variables such as various economic indicators, social events, and supply and demand. The purpose of this study was to analyze the operating profit of 13 Korean liner companies over 30 years, including the financial crisis of the late 1990s, the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and the COVID-19 global pandemic. This study was conducted to also identify factors that impacted the profit ratio of Korea's liner shipping companies according to economic conditions. It was divided into ocean-going and short-sea shipping, reflecting the characteristics of liner shipping companies, and was analyzed by hierarchical multiple regression analysis. The time series data are based on the Korean International Financial Reporting Standards (K-IFRS) and comprise seaborne trade volume, fleet evolution, and macroeconomic indicators. The outliers representing the economic downturn due to social events were separately analyzed. As a result of the analysis, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) positively impacted ocean-going as well as short-sea liner shipping companies. However, the Korean container shipping volume only impacted ocean-going liners positively. Additionally, world and Korea's GDP, world seaborne trade volume, and fuel price are factored in the operating profit of short sea liner shipping. Also, the GDP growth rate of China, exchange rate, and interest rate did not significantly impact both groups. Notably, the operating profitability of Korea's liner shipping shows an exceptionally high rate during the recessions of 1998 and 2020. It is paradoxical, and not correlated with the classical economic indicators. Unlike other studies, this paper focused on the operating profit before financial expenses, considering the complexity as well as difficulty in forecasting the shipping cycle, and rendered conclusions using relatively long-term empirical analysis, including three economic shocks.

Associations between maternal comprehensive feeding practices and dietary practices in preschool children (어머니의 종합적 식사지도와 유아의 식생활 실천과의 관계)

  • Cho, Myeongil;Kye, Seunghee
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study determined the relationships between maternal comprehensive feeding practices (CFP) and dietary practices of preschool children. Methods: Participants of the study were 227 mothers of children aged 3 to 5 years attending daycare centers and kindergartens in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province of Korea. The Comprehensive Feeding Practices Questionnaire was used to assess the maternal feeding practices. The Nutrition Quotient for Preschoolers (NQ-P) was measured to evaluate dietary practice and diet quality of children. Results: The balance of NQ-P for children was positively correlated with the modeling, restrictions for weight control, encouragement of balance and variety, pressure, and involvement among maternal CFP. Moderation of NQ-P was positively correlated with monitoring, modeling, teaching about nutrition, encouragement of balance and variety, environment, and involvement among maternal CFP. However, it was negatively correlated with emotion regulation, food as a reward, and child control in maternal CFP. Among maternal CFP, the environment of NQ-P was positively correlated with monitoring, modeling, teaching about nutrition, encouragement of balance and variety, environment, and involvement, and it was negatively correlated with emotion regulation. As a multiple regression analysis, maternal CFP that positively predicted balance of NQ-P indices were restricted for weight control, pressure, and involvement. Among maternal CFP, encouragement of balance and variety, and environment were positive predictors, while food as a reward, and child control were negative predictors for the moderation of NQ-P. Items of maternal CFP positively predicting environmental factors of NQ-P were monitoring and environment. Conclusion: Mothers are recommended to practice dietary guidance to their children, such as monitoring, modeling, teaching about nutritional information, recommendation of balance and diversity, healthy eating environment, and participation in meal plan and preparation, while they are advised not to conduct any adverse dietary guidance such as emotional control, compensation with food, child control, and food coercion.

A Study on Risk Assessment Method for Earthquake-Induced Landslides (지진에 의한 산사태 위험도 평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Junpyo;Eu, Song;Lee, Kihwan;Lee, Changwoo;Woo, Choongshik
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.694-709
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: In this study, earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment was conducted to provide basic data for efficient and preemptive damage prevention by selecting the erosion control work before the earthquake and the prediction and restoration priorities of the damaged area after the earthquake. Method: The study analyzed the previous studies abroad to examine the evaluation methodology and to derive the evaluation factors, and examine the utilization of the landslide hazard map currently used in Korea. In addition, the earthquake-induced landslide hazard map was also established on a pilot basis based on the fault zone and epicenter of Pohang using seismic attenuation. Result: The earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment study showed that China ranked 44%, Italy 16%, the U.S. 15%, Japan 10%, and Taiwan 8%. As for the evaluation method, the statistical model was the most common at 59%, and the physical model was found at 23%. The factors frequently used in the statistical model were altitude, distance from the fault, gradient, slope aspect, country rock, and topographic curvature. Since Korea's landslide hazard map reflects topography, geology, and forest floor conditions, it has been shown that it is reasonable to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides using it. As a result of evaluating the risk of landslides based on the fault zone and epicenter in the Pohang area, the risk grade was changed to reflect the impact of the earthquake. Conclusion: It is effective to use the landslide hazard map to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides at the regional scale. The risk map based on the fault zone is effective when used in the selection of a target site for preventive erosion control work to prevent damage from earthquake-induced landslides. In addition, the risk map based on the epicenter can be used for efficient follow-up management in order to prioritize damage prevention measures, such as to investigate the current status of landslide damage after an earthquake, or to restore the damaged area.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

High-Risk Area for Human Infection with Avian Influenza Based on Novel Risk Assessment Matrix (위험 매트릭스(Risk Matrix)를 활용한 조류인플루엔자 인체감염증 위험지역 평가)

  • Sung-dae Park;Dae-sung Yoo
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2023
  • Over the last decade, avian influenza (AI) has been considered an emerging disease that would become the next pandemic, particularly in countries like South Korea, with continuous animal outbreaks. In this situation, risk assessment is highly needed to prevent and prepare for human infection with AI. Thus, we developed the risk assessment matrix for a high-risk area of human infection with AI in South Korea based on the notion that risk is the multiplication of hazards with vulnerability. This matrix consisted of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry farms and the number of poultry-associated production facilities assumed as hazards of avian influenza and vulnerability, respectively. The average number of HPAI in poultry farms at the 229-municipal level as the hazard axis of the matrix was predicted using a negative binomial regression with nationwide outbreaks data from 2003 to 2018. The two components of the matrix were classified into five groups using the K-means clustering algorithm and multiplied, consequently producing the area-specific risk level of human infection. As a result, Naju-si, Jeongeup-si, and Namwon-si were categorized as high-risk areas for human infection with AI. These findings would contribute to designing the policies for human infection to minimize socio-economic damages.

Comparison of health indicators and lifestyle according to atherogenic index of plasma in Korean adults in their 20s and 30s (한국 20-30대 성인의 Atherogenic Index of Plasma에 따른 건강지표 및 생활습관비교)

  • Bora Hwang;Yoon Jung Yang
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.168-183
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death not only in Korea but also worldwide. Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) has been extensively investigated, but studies on nutritional intake and eating habits are scarce. The purpose of this study was to analyze the general characteristics, dietary habits, and nutritional status of Korean adults based on their AIP values using data from the 2013-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Methods: A total number of 3,040 adults in their 20s and 30s were included as study subjects. They were divided into quintiles according to their AIP values. Comparisons were then made among the general information, eating habits, and nutritional intake statuses of the groups. Results: The averages of AIP were different by age, obese status, education, occupation, alcohol drinking frequency, smoking, and exercise in men. As for women, the averages of AIP were different by age, obese status, education, occupation, alcohol drinking frequency, and smoking status. Except for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, higher AIP values in men were associated with significant increasing trends in health indicators, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, hemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol. As for women, as AIP increased, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol showed significant increasing trends except HDL-cholesterol. HDL-cholesterol showed a significant decreasing trend as AIP increased in men and women. In the high AIP group of women, the frequency of breakfast was lower, whereas the frequency of alcohol beverage consumption was higher. Conclusion: Among young adults, the risk of arteriosclerosis was higher in obese, smoking, and non-exercise individuals. More frequent alcohol drink consumption in women is associated with a higher risk of arteriosclerosis. Therefore, weight and lifestyle management are necessary for the prevention of atherosclerosis among young adults.

A Generalized Adaptive Deep Latent Factor Recommendation Model (일반화 적응 심층 잠재요인 추천모형)

  • Kim, Jeongha;Lee, Jipyeong;Jang, Seonghyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.249-263
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    • 2023
  • Collaborative Filtering, a representative recommendation system methodology, consists of two approaches: neighbor methods and latent factor models. Among these, the latent factor model using matrix factorization decomposes the user-item interaction matrix into two lower-dimensional rectangular matrices, predicting the item's rating through the product of these matrices. Due to the factor vectors inferred from rating patterns capturing user and item characteristics, this method is superior in scalability, accuracy, and flexibility compared to neighbor-based methods. However, it has a fundamental drawback: the need to reflect the diversity of preferences of different individuals for items with no ratings. This limitation leads to repetitive and inaccurate recommendations. The Adaptive Deep Latent Factor Model (ADLFM) was developed to address this issue. This model adaptively learns the preferences for each item by using the item description, which provides a detailed summary and explanation of the item. ADLFM takes in item description as input, calculates latent vectors of the user and item, and presents a method that can reflect personal diversity using an attention score. However, due to the requirement of a dataset that includes item descriptions, the domain that can apply ADLFM is limited, resulting in generalization limitations. This study proposes a Generalized Adaptive Deep Latent Factor Recommendation Model, G-ADLFRM, to improve the limitations of ADLFM. Firstly, we use item ID, commonly used in recommendation systems, as input instead of the item description. Additionally, we apply improved deep learning model structures such as Self-Attention, Multi-head Attention, and Multi-Conv1D. We conducted experiments on various datasets with input and model structure changes. The results showed that when only the input was changed, MAE increased slightly compared to ADLFM due to accompanying information loss, resulting in decreased recommendation performance. However, the average learning speed per epoch significantly improved as the amount of information to be processed decreased. When both the input and the model structure were changed, the best-performing Multi-Conv1d structure showed similar performance to ADLFM, sufficiently counteracting the information loss caused by the input change. We conclude that G-ADLFRM is a new, lightweight, and generalizable model that maintains the performance of the existing ADLFM while enabling fast learning and inference.

세계의 유황수급 전망

  • Ceccotti S.P;Messick D.L
    • Proceedings of the Mineralogical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.7-24
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    • 1996
  • '90년대 전반기 중 세계 경제 상황은 정치, 경제 및 환경의 급격한 변화에 따른 불황으로 유황시장에도 심대한 영향을 미치게 되었다. 이와 같은 경기의 후퇴는 다수의 생산자로 하여금 전반적인 시장 상황을 바꿀 수 있는 전략 변경 및 새로운 시장 개발을 촉진시키게 하였다. 최근에 전개되고 있는 극단적인 정치$\cdot$경제적인 변화는 재래시장과 무역균형을 변경시키게 되었다. 개선되는 세계경제에 따른 광범위한 구조조정과 지난 2년간 진행되어온 전반적으로 농업에 유리한 조건에 힘입어 1995년 유황공업은 회복이 시작되어 54.63백만 톤이 생산되었다 국제 유황 무역은 수요와 공급 면에서는 균형을 못 찾고 있다. 1995년 유황생산 중 무역량은 $45\%$에 이르렀다. 유황생산에 영향하는 요소가 변함에 따라 무역의 형태가 변하게 되고 세계 유황 수급 균형에 영향을 주게 되었다. 지난 2년간 있었던 유황생산 회복은 다음 십년간 지속될 것으로 예측된다. 대부분 수요의 증가는 자연가스의 생산을 지배하는 요소에 따라 결정 될 것이다 1986년 이래 유가가 떨어진 후 세계 에너지 수요는 연간 $2.3\%$ 증가하였다. 석유와 가스는 미래 에너지 수요의 증가로 $70\%$이상을 공급하게 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 회수 유황은 원유의 정제로부터 유래된 것으로 가장 신장이 큰 공급원으로 2005년까지 주요유황생산 부분이 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 주요 회수 유황생산국은 일본으로 전체의 $66\%$를 차지한다. 석유 정제로부터 회수 유황생산량은 동아시아에서 증가하고 있다. 유황회수 시설 투자는 일본을 위시하여 한국, 싱가폴 및 태국에서 이루어지고 있으며 이는 점차 증대되는 환경규제에 기인된다. 동아시아 공업국가 예컨대 일본과 한국에서의 유황소비는 인산생산 저조로 정체해 있으나 지난 10년간 여타의 아시아 국가에서의 유황소비는 꾸준히 증가되었다. 이 같은 증가는 앞으로 10년간 계속 될 것으로 추정된다. 이는 유황비료 소비가 4.81백만 톤에서 6.6백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상되고 이는 주로 중국이 내수 인산생산을 증가시키려는 데 기인된다. 더욱이 다가올 10년은 다수의 아시아 국가의 급속한 경제 발전으로 비료 이외의 유황의 소비가 꾸준히 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 10.29백만 톤을 생산하고 10.99백만 톤을 소비하여 1995년에는 70만 톤의 유황이 부족하였다. 이와 같은 영향이 계속된다면 동아시아 유황부족은 2005년에는 1.05백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 중국에서 황화철에서부터 공급되는 유황함량이 많아 이 지역에서의 원소유황의 진정한 균형에 대해서는 정확하게 평가되지 못한다. 1995년 동아시아에서는 1.3백만 톤의 원소유황을 일본, 캐나다, 미국에서 수입했다. 이들 국가는 앞으로도 이 지역의 주요 공급자가 될 것이다. 황산의 많은 양은 일본에서 이 지역으로 수출되는데 그 양은 1995년 10만톤 이상에 이른다. 더욱이 경제?환경적 이점 때문에 중국이 황화물에서 회수하는 유황대신 원소 유황의 수입을 지속적으로 증가시키고 있어 지역내의 유황 부족이 증가 될 것이다. 이 같은 상황진전으로 앞으로 10년 이내에 2.5백만 톤의 추가시장이 있게 될 것이다. 이 기간내 한국으로서 현재 326,000톤의 부족에서 2005년에는 309,000톤의 과잉으로 유황균형이 변할 수 있는 주요계기가 될 것이다 이 같은 과잉은 회수 유황생산이 1995년 333,000톤에서 2005년 870,000톤으로 $161\%$가 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 동기간 내에 기타 유황생산은 280,000톤에서 320,000톤으로 $14\%$ 증가되는 것으로 추정된다. 그리하여 2005년 한국에서 유황 공급은 1.19백만 톤이고 수요는 881,000톤으로 추정 된다. 미래 한국에서 유황의 또 다른 잠재시장은 식물양분으로서 이다. 인산비료 생산은 유황산업의 골격으로 1995년 세계적으로 인산비료는 유황소비의 53%인 53.60백만 톤을 점유하였다. 작물의 유황결핍 현상은 세계도처에서 나타나고 있어 식물양분으로서 유황시장은 20년전의 시장과 같이 현황을 띠는 시장으로 유황공업이 때를 만나게 될 것이다. 공업국에서 유황의 대기로의 방출억제로 자연 공급량이 감소되고 개발도상국에서 증산으로 유황의 탈취가 증가됨에 따라 유황 부족은 점차 중요한 문제로 확산되고 있다. 세계적으로 $1993\~1994$년간 7.52백만 톤으로 추정되는 유황 부족이 농산물의 수량과 질을 하락시키는 결과를 가져오게 하였다: 이와 같은 현상으로 유황비료의 수요가 증대되었고 산업계는 수요증대에 대응할 기술개발에 노력하게 되었다. 현재의 식량생산과 비료 소비추세가 지속된다면 아시아에서 2000년까지 매년 4.5백만 톤의 유황부족이 있게 될 것이다 이와 같은 유황비료의 부족은 적절한 대책을 취하지 않는 한 2010년에는 6.5백만 톤으로 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 경제발전으로 유황비료 장기 잠재시장이 기대되고 새로운 시장으로 $50\%$이상을 점유하게 될 것이다. 서구와 북미에서 유황비료 산업은 이윤 있는 잠재시장으로 인정되고 상업적으로 앞서 있는 시장이다. 점증하는 수요에 대한 대처와 유황비료의 성공은 시장에서 가격에 좌우된다. 실제로 북미와 서구에서 현재의 소매가격은 유황 톤당 $266\~466\$$의 범위에 있다. 인도에서는 비료로서 유황시장은 덜 발달된 단계로서 대표가격은 $120\$$이다. 이 가격 범위로 보아 2010년에 동아시아 시장의 잠재 유황비료 시장은 3.4백만 톤에 이르고 비료공업에서 추가로 얻는 이윤은 408백만 내지 1조5천억$\$$이 될 것이다. 이와 같은 시장이 발전 될 수 있는 것은 계속된 제품개발과 비료산업 시장개척에 달려있다.

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