• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결과예측

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A Study on Estimation of Environmental Value of Tentatively Named 'East-West Trail' Using CVM (CVM기법을 이용한 가칭 '동서트레일'의 환경가치 추정)

  • Kee-Rae Kang;Yoon-Ho Choi;Bo-Kwang Chung;Dong-Pil Kim;Hyun-Kyeong Oh;Woo-Sung Lee;Su-Bok Chae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.676-683
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    • 2022
  • Due to the effects of rapid changes in the living environment since 2000 and the recent unforeseen pandemic, people are refraining from domestic and international traveling and movement, and outdoor activities for health and the public value of forest trails, called Dullegil Trail in Korea, have become more important. This study estimated the environmental value of the tentatively named "East-West Trail," which connects the forest trails crossing Chungcheong and Gyeongsang Provinces using CVM (Contingent Valuation Method). It surveyed visitors to the East-West Trail, and 725 questionnaires were used for analysis. The average characteristics of respondents were those who exercised 2-3 times per week, visited a forest trail not far from their residence with friends or family, and showed a tendency to spend 50 thousand Korean won or more per visit. Visitors to the Dullegil Trail felt that there was a shortage of information boards on the forest trail, and they preferred a shelter in appropriate locations. We used a double-bounded dichotomous choice (BDDC) logit model proposed by Hanemann to measure the conservation value of the East-West Trail. It was estimated that the environmental value that a visitor to the East-West Trail could obtain was 30,087 won per trip. The estimated environmental value of the East-West Trail can be converted to about 94 billion won total visitors annually based on the population belonging to the direct-use zone near the East-West Trail. As there has been no study on the environmental value of forest trails using CVM, the results of this study will be able to suggest the feasibility of the government policies on forest trails.

Effect of temperature on oviposition of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and ovipositional characteristics in corn fields (온도가 열대거세미나방 산란에 미치는 영향 및 옥수수 포장에서의 산란 특성)

  • Hyung Cheol Moon;Min Kyung Choi;Su Ji Jang;Jang Ho Lee;Ju Hee Kim;Hyong Gwon Chon
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 2022
  • The effect of five different constant temperatures (18, 21, 24, 27, and 30±1℃) and a photoperiod of 14 : 10 (L :D) h on the reproduction parameters of Spodoptera frugiperda was studied. The longevity of adult female S. frugiperda decreased with increasing temperature (22.4 days at 21℃ and 13.9 days at 30℃) but not at 18℃. The pre-oviposition period and oviposition period was the shortest at 30℃ compared to the other temperatures. The total fecundity egg count was 887.4, 1,246.4, 1,348.9, 1,154.9, and 1,034.2 at 18, 21, 24, 27 and 30℃, respectively, during its life span. The survival rate of female S. frugiperda decreased rapidly after 13 days at 18℃, after 14 days at 21℃, after 15 days at 27℃, and after 9 days at 24℃, and 30℃. On the third day after the start of oviposition, 50% of the total fecundity was accomplished. In corn fields at less than the 10-leaf stage, the distribution of S. frugiperda egg masses was observed in the middle and lower plant regions, corresponding to 46.8% and 41.4% of the total egg masses, respectively. Egg masses were mostly found on the underside of the leaf blade (abaxial) of corn(66.7%). After releasing S. frugiperda adults on May 12, May 17, May 25, and May 30, the number of eggs per egg mass was 89.9, 88.5, 126.6, and 127.9, respectively. Egg masses of the subsequent generations of S. frugiperda were observed from late June, and the number of eggs per egg mass was 155.8 in late June, 270.7 in early July, and 303.5 in mid-July.

Incidence and Associated Factors of Delirium after Orthopedic Surgery (정형외과 수술 후 발생한 섬망의 발생 빈도와 관련 인자)

  • Lee, Si-Wook;Cho, Chul-Hyun;Bae, Ki-Cheor;Lee, Kyung-Jae;Son, Eun-Seok;Um, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.157-163
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To investigate the incidence and associated factors of delirium after orthopedic surgery. Materials and Methods: A total of 2,122 cases, who were older than 20 years and underwent orthopedic surgery at a single medical center during a one year period were included. Among them, 132 patients who were diagnosed with delirium after surgery under the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-V criteria and medicated under the consultation of a psychiatrist were included in the study The differences in the incidence of delirium and several affecting factors were analyzed. Results: The overall incidence of delirium after surgery was 6.2% (132 in 2,122 cases). The mean age of the delirium group was 77.4 years (range, 54-92 years), which was higher than that of the non-delirium group (58.1 years). The percentage of women in the delirium group was 63.6% (84 in 132 cases), which was higher than that of the women in the non-delirium group (49.0%). The incidence of delirium after surgery was 9.3% (85 in 916 cases) due to trauma and 3.9% (47 in 1206 cases) due to disease. The incidence of postoperative delirium according to the surgical region was 29.2% (7 in 24 cases) in two or more regions, 13.7% (72 in 526 cases) in the hip, and 9.6% (14 in 146 cases) in the spine, 3.5% (20 in 577 cases) in the knee-lower leg, 2.5% (5 in 199 cases) in the foot-ankle, 2.4% (11 in 457 cases) in the shoulder-elbow, and 1.6% (3 in 189 cases) in the forearm-wrist-hand. Delirium occurred more rapidly in women and surgery due to disease, and the duration of delirium was longer in patients with dementia and major depressive disorders. Conclusion: The incidence of postoperative delirium was high in cases of surgery due to trauma and in cases of surgery in two or more sites. The incidence of postoperative delirium according to a single surgical region was higher in the order of the hip, spine, and knee. Active intervention is needed regarding the correctable risk factor.

Relationship between the Progression of Kyphosis in Thoracolumbar Osteoporotic Vertebral Compression Fractures and Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings (흉요추 골다공증성 압박 골절에서의 후만 변형의 진행과 자기공명영상 소견 사이의 관계)

  • Jun, Deuk Soo;Baik, Jong-Min;Kwon, Hyuk Min
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.336-342
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To examine the relationship between the progression of a kyphotic deformity and the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings in conservatively treated osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture patients. Materials and Methods: This study categorized the patients who underwent conservative treatment among those patients who underwent treatment under the suspicion of a thoracolumbar compression fracture from January 2007 to March 2016. Among them, this retrospective study included eighty-nine patients with osteoporosis and osteopenia with a bone density of less than -2.0 and single vertebral body fracture. This study examined the MRI of anterior longitudinal ligament or posterior longitudinal ligament injury, superior or inferior endplate disruption, superior of inferior intravertebral disc injury, the presence of low signal intensity on T2-weighted images, and bone edema of intravertebral bodies in fractured intravertebral bodies. Results: In cases where the superior endplate was disrupted or the level of bone edema of the intravertebral bodies was high, the kyphotic angle, wedge angle, and anterior vertebral compression showed remarkably progression. In the case of damage to the anterior longitudinal ligament or the superior disc, only the kyphotic angle was markedly prominent. On the T2-weighted images, low signal intensity lesions showed a high wedge angle and high anterior vertebral compression. On the other hand, there were no significant correlations among the posterior longitudinal ligament injury, inferior endplate disruption, inferior disc injury, and the progression of kyphotic deformity and vertebral compression. The risk factors that increase the kyphotic angle by more than 5° include the presence of injuries to the anterior longitudinal ligament, superior endplate disruption, and superior disc injury, and the risk factors were 21.3, 5.1, and 8.5 times higher than those of the uninjured case, and the risk differed according to the level of bone edema. Conclusion: An osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture in osteoporotic or osteopenic patients, anterior longitudinal ligament injury, superior endplate and intravertebral disc injury, and high level of edema in the MRI were critical factors that increases the risk of kyphotic deformity.

Responses of Health Physical Fitness and Arterial Stiffness through Cigarette Smoking (흡연습관이 성인 남성의 건강관련체력 및 동맥경직도에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Min-Kyung;Park, Eun-Kyung;Yoo, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2019
  • This study was to compare arterial stiffness and hemodynamic responses between male smokers and non-smokers. This study also investigates the influences of smoking before exercise on arterial stiffness and hemodynamic responses. 24 male subjects of age 20-29 without history of cardiorespiratory disease were divided into smokers and non-smokers. Smokers had more than 5 years of smoking experience. In order to evaluate the effects of pre-exercise smoking, smokers were tested twice, once with a cigarette before the exercise and the other once without one. Data was collected from bio-impedance analysis, SphygmoCor XCEL, graded exercise test, and fitness test. Main results of this study are as follows: First, there are differences between smokers and non-smokers in cardiorespiratory and hemodynamic response functions, as shown by maximal oxygen consumption, exercise duration, and heart rate. Second, the although the arterial stiffness between smokers and non-smokers showed statistically significant differences in the speed of the pulse wave velocity and augmentation index, smoker had a faster rate. It shows that smoking behavior has a negative impact on the cardiovascular system. Third, pre-exercise smoking behavior does have an impact on cardiorespiratory and hemodynamic response functions, as shown by exercise duration and heart rate. Lastly, arterial stiffness between smokers and non-smokers showed statistically not significant in the speed of the pulse wave velocity and augmentation index. However, the difference was not statistically significant. Brachial systolic pressure, a component of pulse wave analysis, on the other hand, was significantly dependent on pre-exercise smoking behavior. Subjects who participated in this study are college students in early 20s. Given their relatively short history of smoking, it is possible that their smoking habits are not severe enough to develop into cardiorespiratory or cardiovascular diseases. But Smokers showed lower levels of cardiopulmonary functions, as maximal oxygen consumption and exercise duration than nonsmokers.

Comprehensive Review on the Implications of Extreme Weather Characteristics to Stormwater Nature-based Solutions (자연기반해법을 적용한 그린인프라 시설의 극한기후 영향 사례분석)

  • Miguel Enrico L. Robles;Franz Kevin F. Geronimo;Chiny C. Vispo;Haque Md Tashdedul;Minsu Jeon;Lee-Hyung Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.353-365
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    • 2023
  • The effects of climate change on green infrastructure and environmental media remain uncertain and context-specific despite numerous climate projections globally. In this study, the extreme weather conditions in seven major cities in South Korea were characterized through statistical analysis of 20-year daily meteorological data extracted fro m the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Additionally, the impacts of extreme weather on Nature-based Solutions (NbS) were determined through a comprehensive review. The results of the statistical analysis and comprehensive review revealed the studied cities are potentially vulnerable to varying extreme weather conditions, depending on geographic location, surface imperviousness, and local weather patterns. Temperature extremes were seen as potential threats to the resilience of NbS in Seoul, as both the highest maximum and lowest minimum temperatures were observed in the mentioned city. Moreover, extreme values for precipitation and maximum wind speed were observed in cities from the southern part of South Korea, particularly Busan, Ulsan, and Jeju. It was also found that extremely low temperatures induce the most impact on the resilience of NbS and environmental media. Extremely cold conditions were identified to reduce the pollutant removal efficiency of biochar, sand, gravel, and woodchip, as well as the nutrient uptake capabilities of constructed wetlands (CWs). In response to the negative impacts of extreme weather on the effectiveness of NbS, several adaptation strategies, such as the addition of shading and insulation systems, were also identified in this study. The results of this study are seen as beneficial to improving the resilience of NbS in South Korea and other locations with similar climate characteristics.

Efficient Deep Learning Approaches for Active Fire Detection Using Himawari-8 Geostationary Satellite Images (Himawari-8 정지궤도 위성 영상을 활용한 딥러닝 기반 산불 탐지의 효율적 방안 제시)

  • Sihyun Lee;Yoojin Kang;Taejun Sung;Jungho Im
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.979-995
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    • 2023
  • As wildfires are difficult to predict, real-time monitoring is crucial for a timely response. Geostationary satellite images are very useful for active fire detection because they can monitor a vast area with high temporal resolution (e.g., 2 min). Existing satellite-based active fire detection algorithms detect thermal outliers using threshold values based on the statistical analysis of brightness temperature. However, the difficulty in establishing suitable thresholds for such threshold-based methods hinders their ability to detect fires with low intensity and achieve generalized performance. In light of these challenges, machine learning has emerged as a potential-solution. Until now, relatively simple techniques such as random forest, Vanilla convolutional neural network (CNN), and U-net have been applied for active fire detection. Therefore, this study proposed an active fire detection algorithm using state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning techniques using data from the Advanced Himawari Imager and evaluated it over East Asia and Australia. The SOTA model was developed by applying EfficientNet and lion optimizer, and the results were compared with the model using the Vanilla CNN structure. EfficientNet outperformed CNN with F1-scores of 0.88 and 0.83 in East Asia and Australia, respectively. The performance was better after using weighted loss, equal sampling, and image augmentation techniques to fix data imbalance issues compared to before the techniques were used, resulting in F1-scores of 0.92 in East Asia and 0.84 in Australia. It is anticipated that timely responses facilitated by the SOTA deep learning-based approach for active fire detection will effectively mitigate the damage caused by wildfires.

Test of Independence Between Variables to Estimate the Frequency of Damage in Heat Pipe (열수송관 파손빈도 추정을 위한 변수간 독립성 검정)

  • Myeongsik Kong;Jaemo Kang;Sungyeol Lee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2023
  • Heat pipes located underground in urban areas and operated under high temperature and pressure conditions can cause large-scale human and economic damage if damaged. In order to predict damage in advance, damage and construction information of heat pipe are analyzed to derive independent variables that have a correlation with frequency of damage, and a simple regression analysis modified model using each variable is applied to the field. However, as the correlation between independent variables applied to the model increases, the independence between variables is harmed and the reliability of the model decreases. In this study, the independence of the pipe diameter, burial depth, insulation level of monitoring system, and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line, which are judged to be interrelated, was tested to derive a method for combining variables and setting categories necessary to apply to the frequency of damage estimation model. For the test of independence, the continuous variables pipe diameter and burial depth were each converted into three categories, insulation level of monitoring system was converted into two categories, and the categorical variable disconnection or short circuit of the detection line status was kept as two categories. As a result of the test of independence, p-value between pipe diameter and burial depth, level of monitoring system and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line was lower than the significance level (α = 0.05), indicating a large correlation between them. Therefore, the pipe diameter and burial depth were combined into one variable, and the categories of the combined variable were set to 9 considering the previously set categories. The insulation level of monitoring system and the disconnection or short circuit of the detection line were also combined into one variable. Since the insulation level is unreliable when the detection line status is disconnection or short circuit, the categories of the combined variable were set to 3.

Development and assessment of pre-release discharge technology for response to flood on deteriorated reservoirs dealing with abnormal weather events (이상기후대비 노후저수지 홍수 대응을 위한 사전방류 기술개발 및 평가)

  • Moon, Soojin;Jeong, Changsam;Choi, Byounghan;Kim, Seungwook;Jang, Daewon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2023
  • With the increasing trend of extreme rainfall that exceeds the design frequency of man-made structures due to extreme weather, it is necessary to review the safety of agricultural reservoirs designed in the past. However, there are no local government-managed reservoirs (13,685) that can be discharged in an emergency, except for reservoirs over a certain size under the jurisdiction of the Korea Rural Affairs Corporation. In this case, it is important to quickly deploy a mobile siphon to the site for preliminary discharge, and this study evaluated the applicability of a mobile siphon with a diameter of 200 mm, a minimum water level difference of 6 m, 420 (m2/h), and 10,000 (m2/day), which can perform both preliminary and emergency discharge functions, to the Yugum Reservoir in Gyeongju City. The test bed, Yugum Reservoir, is a facility that was completed in 1945 and has been in use for about 78 years. According to the hydrological stability analysis, the lowest height of the current dam crest section is 27.15 (EL.m), which is 0.29m lower than the reviewed flood level of 27.44 (EL.m), indicating that there is a possibility of lunar flow through the embankment, and the headroom is insufficient by 1.72 m, so it was reviewed as not securing hydrological safety. The water level-volume curve was arbitrarily derived because it was difficult to clearly establish the water level-flow relationship curve of the reservoir since the water level-flow measurement was not carried out regularly, and based on the derived curve, the algorithm for operating small and medium-sized old reservoirs was developed to consider the pre-discharge time, the amount of spillway discharge, and to predict the reservoir lunar flow time according to the flood volume by frequency, thereby securing evacuation time in advance and reducing the risk of collapse. Based on one row of 200 mm diameter mobile siphons, the optimal pre-discharge time to secure evacuation time (about 1 hour) while maintaining 80% of the upper limit water level (about 30,000 m2) during a 30-year flood was analyzed to be 12 hours earlier. If the pre-discharge technology utilizing siphons for small and medium-sized old reservoirs and the algorithm for reservoir operation are implemented in advance in case of abnormal weather and the decision-making of managers is supported, it is possible to secure the safety of residents in the risk area of reservoir collapse, resolve the anxiety of residents through the establishment of a support system for evacuating residents, and reduce risk factors by providing risk avoidance measures in the event of a reservoir risk situation.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.