• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.14-21
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• 1994

The studios on the stability of damaged ships have been carried out continuously to prevent frequent damages or sinkings which cause large loss of life and fortunes. For dry cargo ships, continuing losses have resulted in new legislation of the probabilistic damage stability. IMO has developed requirements for the subdivison and damage stability of dry cargo ships based on probabilistic concepts. The calculation of the probabilistc damage stability is a complicated and iterative job hence development of computer programs is indispensable. In this research, programming of the probabilistic damage stability according to new requirements has been done and the results were compared with those carried out by the other foreign packages. New algorithm using a grid model in a transversal section was introduced to reduce efforts in preparing input data for damage scenarios and as a result, has brought significant improvement in efficiency and performance.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.183-200
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• 2018

This study empirically tests the presence of rational bubbles in the ship prices using time series data from October 1996 to April 2017. To detect the existence of ship prices' rational bubbles, we use integration and cointegration tests, which were proposed by Campbell and Shiller(1987) and Diba and Grossman(1988), for circumventing misspecification of ship price model and applying the bubble test to nonstationary time series. The result of integration test supports existence of tanker price's rational bubble. The co-integration test also shows that drybulk ship and containership prices have been overvalued relative to the market fundamental, drybulk and container freight rates, due to non-stationary rational bubbles. These results provide Korean shipping industry and authorities implications that anticyclical ship investment and long-term and steady fleet capacity expansion policy are needed.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.41-57
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• 2023

The drybulk shipping market has high freight rate volatility in the chartering market and various and complex factors affecting the market. In the unstable economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the BDI plunged due to a decrease in trade volume, but turned from the end of 2020 and maintained a booming period until the end of 2022. The main reason for the market change is the decrease in the available fleet that can actually be operated for cargo transport due to port congestion by the COVID-19 pandemic, regardless of the fleet and trade volume volatility that have affected the drybulk shipping market in the past. A decrease in the actual usable fleet due to vessel waiting at port by congestion led to freight increase, and the freight increase in charting market led to an increase in second-hand ship and new-building ship price in long-term equilibrium relationship. In the past, the drybulk shipping market was determined by the volatility of fleet and trade volume. but, in the future, available fleet volume volatility by pandemics, environmental regulations and climate will be the important factors affecting BDI. To response to the IMO carbon emission reduction in 2023, it is expected that ship speed will be slowed down and more ships are expected to be needed to transport the same trade volume. This slowdown is expected to have an impact on drybulk shipping market, such as a increase in freight and second-hand ship and new-building ship price due to a decrease in available fleet volume.

• 해운
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• no.2 s.1
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• pp.10-15
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• 2004

2004년도 세계해운시황은 세계경제의 회복과 중국특수의 지속으로 매우 밝은 것으로 전망됐다. 특히 정기선시장은 신조선의 인도량 증가에도 불구하고 아시아역내항로를 제외한 대부분의 항로에서 강세를 보일 것으로 전망됐으며, 건화물선시장 역시 호조를 보일 것으로 예상되고 있다. 하지만, 유조선시장은 신조선 인도량의 급증으로 전반적인 운임수준이 하락하여 WS 70 내외에 머물 것으로 전망됐다. 다음은 한국해양수산개발원(KMI)의 2004년도 해운시황 전망 보고서를 요약정리한 것이다.(편집자 주)

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.467-475
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• 2013

In order to seize quantitative materials as part of studies on measures for oil pollution prevention and control, the statistics of oil pollution incidents in Korean coastal waters for 10 years from 2003 to 2012 were analyzed with relation to the number of oil spills and the volume of oil spilt according to causes, sources and sea areas of spills. Total number and total volume of oil spills for 10 years were found to be 2,833 cases and 17,877 kL, respectively. 50.4 %(1,429 cases) of total number of oil spills were caused by negligence, although oil spillage due to negligence was 294 kL(1.7 %). While oil spillage caused by marine accidents was 17,400 kL(97.3 %), marine accidents accounted for 27.9 %(790 cases) of total number of oil spills. While negligence had a great influence on the number of oil spills, marine accidents had a huge impact on the amount of oil spilt. Fishing boats accounted for 42.7 %(1,210 cases) of the number of oil spills, and although oil tankers accounted for 9.2 %(261 cases) of the number of oil spills, oil spillage from oil tankers was 15,488kL(86.7 %). It means that oil tankers such as VLCC or ULCC may be the main sources of major oil spills and a few very large spills are responsible for a high percentage of the amount of oil spilt. While the number of oil spill incidents was closely related to the accidents of fishing boats, the volume of oil spilt was greatly affected by the major oil spill incidents of oil tankers such as M/T Hebei Spirit. The number and volume of oil spills were shown to be 1,613 cases(56.9 %) and 3,804 kL(21.3 %) in South Sea, 700 cases(24.7 %) and 13,501 kL(75.5 %) in West Sea, and 520 cases(18.2 %) and 572 kL(3.2 %) in East Sea of Korea, respectively. The highest number of oil spills was found in South Sea and the most volume of oil spilt was shown in West Sea of Korea for 10 years.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.244-252
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• 2020

The 2008 global financial crisis was triggered by the Lehman Brothers crisis caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States This crisis has had an impact on the globe's dry bulk shipping market by reducing dry bulk cargo volume. An oversupply of dry bulk carriers caused a serious recession in the globe's dry-bulk shipping industry and shipbuilding industry. In this situation, the Korean dry-bulk shipping companies were victims of the quagmire of a long recession since the global financial crisis and could not overcome this crisis. This condition forced them into severe financial risk Thus, it caused many shipping companies to file for bankruptcy. In this study, we classified Korean ocean-going dry-bulk shipping companies into two groups, that is, the solvent group and the insolvent group. We also separated the research period before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. Then we investigated the differences in the major financial ratios of the two groups by t-test and found that some financial ratios such as profitability ratios and growth ratios showed the difference between the two groups with statistical significance. The significance of this study is as follow. First, the shipping company management is also crucial for the systematic management of financial strength and business strategy, it is crucial to manage cargo which a high profitable freight. Second, the shipping company should be managed as a company with continued growth through efficient operation and management of ships.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.151-163
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• 2024

This study sought to confirm the impact of analytical methods and behavioral economic theory factors on decision-making when making chartering decisions in the dry bulk shipping market. This study on chartering decision-making model was began to verify why shipping companies do not make rational decision-making and behavior based on analytical methods such as freight prediction and process of alternative selection in the same market situation. To understand the chartering decision-making model, it is necessary to study the impact of behavioral economic theory such as heuristics, loss aversion, and herding behavior on chartering decision-making. Through AHP analysis, the importance of the method factors relied upon in chartering decision-making. The dependence of the top factors in chartering decision-making was in the following order: market factors, heuristics, internal factors, herding behavior, and loss aversion. Market factors, heuristics, and internal factors. As for detailed factors, spot freight index and empirical intuition were confirmed as the most important factors relied on when making decisions. It was confirmed that empirical intuition is more important than internal analysis, which is an analytical method. This study can be said to be meaningful in that it academically researched and proved the bounded rationality of humans, which cannot be fully rational, and sometimes relies on experience or psychological tendencies, by applying it to the chartering decision-making model in the dry bulk shipping market. It also suggests that in the dry bulk shipping market, which is uncertain and has a high risk of loss due to decision-making, the experience and insight of decision makers have a very important impact on the performance and business profits of the operation part of shipping companies. Even though chartering are a decision-making field that requires judgment and intuition based on heuristics, decision-makers need to be aware of this decision-making model in order to reduce repeated mistakes of deciding contrary to market situation. It also suggests that there is a need to internally research analytical methods and procedures that can complement heuristics such as empirical intuition.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.297-311
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• 2011

This paper deals with a strategic investment decision model for improving investment profit in shipping industry. Despite the quantitative expansion of Korean shipping business, many shipping firms have suffered financial difficulties due to financial and operating risks that result from the characteristics of capital-intensive business as well as of volatility of shipping markets. As a result, managers in charge of making an investment decision, particularly in tramper business sector, are required to take both financial and operating risk factors into consideration. Put it differently, managers are strongly recommended to avoid these risks by ship asset play; buy-low and sell-high, which results in considerable capital gain and cost reduction. In addition, managers in shipping industry are also recommended to consider the ship chartering investment alternative when the freight markets show extreme volatility as the case of 2008 triggered by sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in USA. For example, the BDI suffered plunging down from 1000 in 2008 to 100 in 2010. Consequently, the 4th largest shipping company in Korea, DAEHAN Shipping Co., has collapsed primarily due to excessive tonnage expansion during the peak time of bulk market. In sum, the strategic investment decision model, suggested in this paper, is designed to include such factors as capital gain by asset play, timely chartering for alternative shipping service, and optimization of operating profit by tonnage adjustment in accordance with change in the shipping markets concerned.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.217-240
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• 2011

In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.129-141
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• 2023

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of daily freight rates of dry bulk and tanker shipping markets and their forecasting accuracy by using the error correction models. In order to calculate the error terms from the co-integrated time series, this study uses the common stochastic trend model (CSTM model) and vector error correction model (VECM model). First, the error correction model using the error term from the CSTM model yields more appropriate results of adjustment speed coefficient than one using the error term from the VECM model. Furthermore, according to the adjusted determination coefficients (adjR²), the error correction model of CSTM-model error term shows more model fitness than that of VECM-model error term. Second, according to the criteria of mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) which measure the forecasting accuracy, the results show that the error correction model with CSTM-model error term produces more accurate forecasts than that of VECM-model error term in the 12 cases among the total 15 cases. This study proposes the analysis and forecast tasks 1) using both of the CSTM-model and VECM-model error terms at the same time and 2) incorporating additional data of commodity and energy markets, and 3) differentiating the adjustment speed coefficients based the sign of the error term as the future research topics.