• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.165-170
• /
• 2021

This study analyzed the effect of housing price changes on the performance of Korean regional banks using DOLS model. The analysis shows that housing price changes does not have a statistically significant effect on the loan growth, profitability and soundness of regional banks. Among macroeconomic variables, only short-term interest rates have a significant positive effect on any model. This means that a rise in short-term interest rates significantly increases loans by regional banks, which leads to a significant increase in profitability, but has a significant negative impact on soundness. On the other hand, bank characteristics variables are found to have a significant negative effect on the loan growth, profitability and soundness of Korean regional banks.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.11
• /
• pp.584-594
• /
• 2016

This research empirically analyzes, from an ecological perspective, whether socio-economic factors of the regions in which the elderly live have any actual influence on thoughts of suicide on the part of the elderly. Microscopic data either included outliers in part of the variables, including income and other variables of that type, from among source data from investigations into actual conditions of the elderly in 2014. Regarding macroscopic data, the indices that represent social and economic situations in each region, which were provided by KOSIS, were selected. Regarding the method of analysis, hierarchical or multi-level analysis models were applied by considering special hierarchical characteristics and heterogeneity at the personal and regional levels. The analyses showed that the following had statistically significant influences: 1. the cost-of-living index and the national basic supply and demand rate of the region; 2. the extent of natural disaster damage; and 3. the number of leisure and welfare facilities for the elderly, compared to the elderly population. Based on the results, proposals are made for systematic and practical endeavors in the community.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.42 no.2
• /
• pp.143-152
• /
• 2009

Recent raw material prices fluctuation has been unexpectedly high and that made Korean economic activities to be depressed. Because most raw material supply in Korea depends upon oversea imports, unexpected raw material price fluctuation affects Korean industrial economies through macroeconomic variables. So Korean government enforces some political measures such as demand management and the supply-security assurance as long-range policies, and reservation and general early warning system as short-range policies. In short-range policies, it is necessary to be expected short term fluctuation. Up to recently, there have been many researches and most of those researches use parametric methods or time series analyses. Because those methods and analyses often generate inadequate relations among variables, it is possible that some consistent variables are left out or the results are misunderstood. This study, therefore, is aim to mitigate those methodological problems and find the relatively appropriate model for economic explanation. So that, in this paper, by using non-parametric signal approach method mitigating some shortages of previous researches and forecasting properly short-range prices fluctuation of non-ferrous materials are presented empirically.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.103-136
• /
• 2014

The covered interest rate parity condition (CIRP) has been widely used in open macroeconomic analysis, risk management, exchange rate forecasts, and so forth. Due to the recent global financial crises, there have been remarkable changes in the financial markets of the emerging markets. These changes possibly influenced the dynamics of the covered interest rate parity condition. In this paper, we investigate whether the CIRP dynamics has changed, and what is the nature of the regime changes. To do this, we propose and estimate multiple-state Markov regime switching models using a Bayesian MCMC method. Our estimation results indicate that the default risk or the deviation from the CIRP has been decreased after the crisis. It seems to be associated with the more active interaction between the short-term bond market and the short-term foreign exchange market than before. The tightened relation of these two financial markets is caused by the arbitrage transaction of foreign investors.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.23-51
• /
• 2016

This study analyzed the expected economic effects of the Korea-GCC FTA and sought strategies for industrial cooperation. To see the economic effects of Korea-GCC FTA, we analysed the effect of the oil tariff reduction of economy by Vector Autoregression(VAR) model. The estimation results shows that following the abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports, GDP, GNI and consumption are expected to grow by 0.212%, 0.389% and 0.238%, respectively. Meanwhile, investment, export and import are estimated to drop by 0.462%, 0.413% and 0.342%, respectively. As for prices, producer prices are to rise by 6.356%p, whereas consumer prices fall by 2.996%p. In short, the Korea-GCC FTA and resultant abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports followed by the decline in crude oil prices will result in declining prices whilst macroeconomic indices, such as GDP, GNI and consumption, will increase exerting positive effects on domestic economic growth. Also, it is necessary to proactively respond to GCC member states' industrial diversification policies for FTA-based industrial cooperation to diversify the sources of crude oil and natural gas imports for further resource risk management.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.225-270
• /
• 2008

We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.291-336
• /
• 2005

This paper investigates how oil price changes have an impact on the Korean manufacturing production activities. For this investigation, we use a structural VAR motel to estimate impulse response functions of industrial production, producer price and export price to an oil price increase over manufacturing industries. It finds that in most manufacturing industries, an oil price increase leads to decreases in industrial productions and domestic prices except energy intensive industries, but to increases in industrial export prices except non-metallic (26), computers and offic machinery (30), electronic components, radio, television and communication (32) industries. This result explains that an oil price increase makes negative impacts on the manufacturing production activities not only through demand slowdown in the domestic markets but also through supply contraction in the export markets.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.34 no.4
• /
• pp.125-140
• /
• 2018

This study uses daily price data on three major types of crude oil (Brent, Dubai, and WTI) and BDI from January 2, 2009 to June 29, 2018, to compare the relationship between crude oil prices and BDI for rate of change and volatility. Unlike previous studies, the correlation between BDI and crude oil prices was analyzed both the rate of change and variability, VARs, Granger Causality Test, and the GARCH and DCC models were employed. The correlation analysis, indicated that the crude oil price change rate and volatility affect the BDI change rate and that BDI volatility affects the crude oil price change rate and volatility. The relationship between oil prices and BDI is identified, but their correlation is low, which is likely a result of lower dependence on crude oil as demand for natural gas increases worldwide and demand for renewable energy decreases. These trends could result in lower correlations over time. Therefore, focusing on the changing demand for raw materials in future investments in international shipping(real economy) and oil markets and macroeconomic analysis is necessary.

• Korea Real Estate Review
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.53-64
• /
• 2018

OECD countries have been stimulating private pensions instead of public pensions because the financial stability of public pensions has been threatened by the aging population. Korea, which has the fastest aging population in the world, has been following the recommended policies of major countries. Unlike major economies, however, most of Korea's household assets are composed of real estate assets. Due to the economic and social importance of real estate assets in Korea, the wealth effect of real estate has been used as a major tool in macroeconomic policy. This study analyzed the effect of real estate value changes on the contribution of private pensions (personal pension + retirement pension). Utilizing a two-way, fixed effect model with the balanced panel data of the National Survey of Tax and Benefit, empirical results presented that the private pension contribution increased by 0.171% when the value of real estate increased by 1%. Thus, real estate value changes were analyzed as positive for retirement preparation through private pension. These results suggested that if the real estate market would shrink in the future, consumption would decrease, and the degree of preparation for retirement might be smaller.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
• /
• v.9 no.7
• /
• pp.157-164
• /
• 2020

As the consumption of fishery products continues to increase, aquaculture industry has emerged instead of fishing industry facing limitations of fish stock resources. Recently, smart fish farming industry has rapidly developed through convergence with 4th Industrial Revolution technology. Accordingly, it is important to derive a future model of smart fish farming platforms in order to secure the superiority of the aquaculture industry and the technology standard hegemony. In this study, the future direction of smart fish farm platform was derived through the analysis of environment related to politics, economy, society, and technology related to smart fish farming by applying PEST methodology of macro-environment analysis. It is expected that it will help the public and industrial circles in planning and implementing related projects by including the entire process of value chain of aquaculture industry of breeding, production, management and distribution, and by presenting advanced models based on artificial intelligence and digital twin.