• Title/Summary/Keyword: 개체군 밀도변동 모델

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Modelling The Population Dynamics of Laodelphax striatellus Fallén on Rice (벼에서 애멸구(Laodelphax striatellus Fallén) 개체군 밀도 변동 예측 모델 구축)

  • Kwon, Deok Ho;Jeong, In-Hong;Seo, Bo Yoon;Kim, Hey-Kyung;Park, Chang-Gyu
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 2019
  • Temperature-dependent traits of Laodelphax striatellus, rice stripe virus vector, were investigated at 10 constant temperatures (12.5, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, and 35.0 ± 1℃) under a fixed photoperiod (14/10-hr light/dark cycle). Unit functions for the oviposition model were estimated and implemented into a population dynamics model using DYMEX. The longevity of L. striatellus adults decreased with increasing temperature (56.0 days at 15.0℃ and 17.7 days at 35.0℃). The highest total fecundity (515.9 eggs/female) was observed at 22.5℃, while the lowest (18.6 eggs/female) was observed at 35.0℃. Adult developmental rates, temperature-dependent fecundity, age-specific mortality rates, and age-specific cumulative oviposition rates were estimated. All unit equations described adult performances of L. striatellus accurately (r2 =0.94~0.97). After inoculating adults, the constructed model was tested under pot and field conditions using the rice-plant hopper system. The model output and observed data were similar up to 30 days after inoculation; however, there were large discrepancies between observed and estimated population density after 30 days, especially for 1st and 2nd instar nymph densities. Model estimates were one or two nymphal stages faster than was observed. Further refinement of the model created in this study could provide realistic forecasting of this important rice pest.

Development of Insect Population Dynamics and Forecast Models: A Case of Chilo suppressalis(Walker) Occurrence in Suwan (해충발생동태 및 예찰모델 개발: 수원에서의 이화명나방 발생 사례)

  • 이준호
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.231-240
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    • 1999
  • The long-term tend an pattern changes of Chilo suppressalis(Walker) occurrence in Suwon were analyzed and the forecasting models for spring emergence of C. suppressalis in Suwon were developed. From 1965 to 196, the population dynamics of C. suppressalis in Suwon shows a cyclic fluctuation with one large peak an one small peak, and its periodicity was ca. 36 generations(18 years). C. suppressalis population dynamics in Suwon was characterized as controlled by the endogenous dynamics dictated by the 1st order negative feedback mechanism (fast density dependence). The dynaics mechanism of C. suppressalis populations was not changed although its population density decreased drastically over the years. Using th dta of C. suppressalis spring occurrence in Suwon, forecasting models for spring emergence of C.supressalis were developed based on temperature-dependent development model or degree days. In general, these models well described the C. suppressalis spring emergence pattern in Suwon. Also, forecasting problems in spring moth emergence related with C. suppressalis population dynamics were discussed.

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Construction and Evaluation of Cohort Based Model for Predicting Population Dynamics of Riptortus pedestris (Fabricicus) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) Using DYMEX (상용소프트웨어(DYMEX)를 이용한 톱다리개미허리노린재(Riptortus pedestris) 밀도 변동 양상 예측 모델 구축 및 평가)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Yum, Ki-Hong;Lee, Sang-Ku;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2015
  • A Cohort based model for temperature-dependent population dynacmics of Riptortus pedestris was constructed by using a commercial software (DYMEX) and seasonal occurrence along with pesticide treatments effect was simulated and validated with pheromone trap data. Ten modules of DYMEX software were used to construct the model and Lifecycle module was consisted of seven developmental stages (egg, 1 - 5 nymphal instars, and adult) of R. pedestirs. Simulated peaks of adult populations occurred three or four times after the peak of overwintered populations which was similar to those observed from pheromone trap catch. Estimated dates for the second peak were quite similar (1-2 day difference) with those observed with pheromone trap. However, the estimated dates for the first population peak were 9-16 days later than the observed dates by pheromone trap and the estimated dates for the last peak were 17-23 days earlier than the observed dates. When insecticide treatments were included in the simulation, the biggest decrease in R. pedestris adult density occurred when insecticide was applied on July 1 for the first peak population: the estimated adult density of the second peak was 3% of untreated population density. When insecticide was assumed to be applied on August 30 for the second peak population, the estimated adult density of the following generation was about 25% of untreated population and the peak density of the following generation reached about two weeks later than untreated population. These results can be used for the efficient management strategies for the populations of R. pedestris.