• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2013

It has been more than four years since the outbreak of global financial crisis. However, the world economy continues to be challenged with new crisis such as the European debt crisis and the fiscal cliff issue of the U.S. The global economic environment remains fragile and prone to further disappointment, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. It's no wonder that maritime business will be bearish since the global business affects the maritime business directly as well as indirectly. This paper, hence, aims to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business using the ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through January 2013. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. These forecasting performances are also compared with those of the random walk model. This study shows that the ARIMA models including Intervention-ARIMA have lower rmse than random walk model. This means that it's appropriate to forecast BDI using the ARIMA models. This paper predicts that the shipping market will be more bearish in 2013 than the year 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.67 no.3
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• pp.57-82
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• 2015

This study examines the extent to which community cohesion moderates the effects of neighborhood disorder on community integration among persons with mental illnesses(MI) who are living in the community. Stress process model, social disorganization theory, and neighborhood disorder model were considered with regard to the moderating effect of community cohesion. 692 persons with MI who utilized Community Mental Health Enhancement Centers were surveyed and analyzed, employing moderated regression model. Major findings showed that neighborhood disorder increased social integration. Community cohesion moderated the relationships of neighborhood disorder to three dimensions of community integration: physical, social and psychological integration. Implications for community intervention beyond the individual and service-level interventions were addressed in order to accomplish community integration for persons with MI.

• Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.105-121
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• 2015

PDA model is new collection development method not only corresponding user's demand, but also expensing acquisition budget effectively. In the PDA model, when the trigger that indicates user's demand reaches up to treshold, e-book is automatically purchased without librarian's interrogation. This study examines concept, basic principles, and current condition of operation about PDA and finds a way that could applicate to Korean university library foreign E-book consortium. Current model of university library e-book acquisition pursuit reduction of budget and utility value, but the selected collection is not based on user's demand. Therefore, it could be considerable to apply PDA or evidence based purchase model to foreign e-book acquisition consortium.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.258-268
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• 2017

The purpose of this research was to examine the factors affecting motivation for change of injured workers. Data from 305 injured workers were anlayzed using hierarchical regression Factors associated with injured workers' motivation for change were: multiple psychological security, acceptability of injury, and independence at personal level, family support at family level, and perceptive severity of injury, job, and return to job.

• Journal of the Korea Computer Industry Society
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• v.4 no.12
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• pp.1033-1042
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• 2003

In this study, the economic population prediction by computer simulation has been studied by using statistical model. The forecast of future population based on that of the past is a very difficult problem as uncertain conditions are modeled in it. Even if a thought forecast is possible, world-wide cultures and the local culture emotion the cultures of the world and out country can not be predicted due to rapid change and the estimation of population is ‘nowadays more and more’ difficult to be made good guess. In the estimation of economic population, by using the census population from 1960 to 1990, and using ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins, the estimation has been done on the economic population until 2021 according to age as appeared table and appendix. This kind of forecast would have both good point and weak point of ARIMA model theory saying that prediction can be done only by the economic population.

• 사회경제평론
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• no.38
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• pp.163-198
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• 2012

This analysis suggests a post Keynesian macro-dynamic model that integrates a financial variable, firm's debt, into the post Keynesian model of growth and distribution. On the basis of it, this study analyzes the effects of government financial expenditure on capital accumulation empirically. It also studies empirically whether a regime shift has arisen since Asian financial crisis in 1997. This paper shows that government financial expenditure has exerted an positive effect on capital accumulation. This empirical result supports government intervention in financial market in recurrence of financial crises. This study also finds grounds for a change in accumulation regime since Asian financial crisis in 1997.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.293-299
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• 2019

This study aimed to analyze the relationship between interpersonal problem, stress coping strategies and mental health for university students at risk of smartphone addiction using a structural equation modeling. Key results of the analysis were as follows. The interpersonal problem increased the severity of mental health. Stress coping strategies had partial mediating effects in the relationship between interpersonal problem and mental health. Passive coping strategy was risk factor and Active coping strategy was protective factor. Based on these results, various interventions for improving mental health for university students at risk of smartphone addiction were suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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• no.59
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• pp.25-58
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• 2017

This study aimed to identify self-worth and self-deprecation trajectories and their associated factors among Korean adolescents. For these purposes, we used latent growth curve modeling involving 2,350 students who participated in the Korea Children and Youth Panel Survey in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2015. Major findings are as follows: 1) Adolescents' self-worth and self-deprecation increased with time, but the speed gradually changed to a quadratic function model; and 2) the types of predictors affecting self-worth and self-deprecation were different. Specifically, the factors that affected only self-worth were adolescents' relationship with teachers and household income, and the factors that affected only self-deprecation were presence of disease and parental over interference. Factors affecting both self-worth and self-deprecation were child's sex, parental affection, peer trust, and peer alienation. These results suggest that independent intervention is needed for self-worth and self-deprecation. Furthermore, the results can be an important basis for establishing a more focused intervention strategy when intervening in self-worth and self-deprecation in adolescents.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.232-238
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to verify the feasibility of a model, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), that predicts the intention of a problem gambler to abstain from gambling. In order to investigate attitudes toward gambling abstinence, subjective norms, perceived behavior control, and intentions to abstain from gambling, we surveyed 100 problem gamblers who used community-based service centers. Furthermore, we analyzed by the structural equation model whether attitude toward gambling abstinence, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control can influence the intention to abstain from gambling. The analysis of the study model revealed that the most powerful predictor of the gambling abstinence intention is perceived behavior control, followed by a positive attitude toward gambling abstinence. In contrast, subjective norms did not show a significant influence on intentions for gambling abstinence. Based on these results, we propose cognitive-behavioral interventions to improve attitudes and self-efficacy toward gambling abstinence in order to help problem gamblers recover. In other words, continuous support and coping-skills training are needed to reinforce the belief that people can recover from a gambling problem, and information and education on problem gambling to improve positive attitudes can also be helpful. Therefore, it is possible to consider not only the treatment of gambling problems, but also to provide preventive interventions centering on the addiction management institution.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.66 no.2
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• pp.51-74
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• 2014

This study aimed to examine a multiple mediator model in which stresses affect self-criticism. The self-criticism, in turn seemed to affect the feelings of loneliness, and this had an effect on over 65 years living alone. Furthermore, whether social support had any moderating effects in the pathway from the loneliness to suicidal ideation on our pass model were also investigated. Data were collected from 572 samples of persons 65 years of age and older living alone in Seoul. For the analyses of the mediating effects and moderating effects, structural equation modeling was used. The results were as follows. First, the pass model was identified to fit the observed data. This mean that self-criticism increased as stress rises, the increased levels of self-criticism increased loneliness, and the increased levels of loneliness increased the levels of suicidal ideation. Second, social support moderated the relation between loneliness and suicidal ideation on our model. These results suggested that interventions which deal with loneliness and suicidal ideation were needed, in order to reduce suicidal ideation caused by the stress. These imply, additionally, that when social workers try to reduce the suicidal ideation, they should consider the levels of social support at work as influences.