• Title/Summary/Keyword: 개별 요소법

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A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Relationships on Magnitude and Frequency of Freshwater Discharge and Rainfall in the Altered Yeongsan Estuary (영산강 하구의 방류와 강우의 규모 및 빈도 상관성 분석)

  • Rhew, Ho-Sang;Lee, Guan-Hong
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.223-237
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    • 2011
  • The intermittent freshwater discharge has an critical influence upon the biophysical environments and the ecosystems of the Yeongsan Estuary where the estuary dam altered the continuous mixing of saltwater and freshwater. Though freshwater discharge is controlled by human, the extreme events are mainly driven by the heavy rainfall in the river basin, and provide various impacts, depending on its magnitude and frequency. This research aims to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of extreme freshwater discharges, and to establish the magnitude-frequency relationships between basin-wide rainfall and freshwater inflow. Daily discharge and daily basin-averaged rainfall from Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 31, 2010 were used to determine the relations between discharge and rainfall. Consecutive daily discharges were grouped into independent events using well-defined event-separation algorithm. Partial duration series were extracted to obtain the proper probability distribution function for extreme discharges and corresponding rainfall events. Extreme discharge events over the threshold 133,656,000 $m^3$ count up to 46 for 13.7y years, following the Weibull distribution with k=1.4. The 3-day accumulated rain-falls which occurred one day before peak discharges (1day-before-3day -sum rainfall), are determined as a control variable for discharge, because their magnitude is best correlated with that of the extreme discharge events. The minimum value of the corresponding 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall, 50.98mm is initially set to a threshold for the selection of discharge-inducing rainfall cases. The number of 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall groups after selection, however, exceeds that of the extreme discharge events. The canonical discriminant analysis indicates that water level over target level (-1.35 m EL.) can be useful to divide the 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall groups into discharge-induced and non-discharge ones. It also shows that the newly-set threshold, 104mm, can just separate these two cases without errors. The magnitude-frequency relationships between rainfall and discharge are established with the newly-selected lday-before-3day-sum rainfalls: $D=1.111{\times}10^8+1.677{\times}10^6{\overline{r_{3day}}$, (${\overline{r_{3day}}{\geqq}104$, $R^2=0.459$), $T_d=1.326T^{0.683}_{r3}$, $T_d=0.117{\exp}[0.0155{\overline{r_{3day}}]$, where D is the quantity of discharge, ${\overline{r_{3day}}$ the 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall, $T_{r3}$ and $T_d$, are respectively return periods of 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall and freshwater discharge. These relations provide the framework to evaluate the effect of freshwater discharge on estuarine flow structure, water quality, responses of ecosystems from the perspective of magnitude and frequency.