• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가뭄 위험도

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Estimation of Future Long-Term Riverbed Fluctuations and Aggregate Extraction Volume Using Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of the Nonsan River Basin (기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 장기하상변동 및 골재 채취량 산정: 논산천을 사례로)

  • Dae Eop Lee;Min Seok Kim;Hyun Ju Oh
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to estimate riverbed fluctuations and the volume of aggregate extraction attributable to climate change. Rainfall-runoff modeling, utilizing the SWAT model based on climate change scenarios, as well as long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling, employing the HEC-RAS model, were conducted for the Nonsan River basin. The analysis of rainfall-runoff and sediment transport under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the early part of the future indicates that differences in annual precipitation may exceed 600 mm, resulting in a corresponding variation in the basin's sediment discharge by more than 30,000 tons per year. Additionally, long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling of the lower reaches of the Nonsan Stream has identified a potential aggregate extraction area. It is estimated that aggregate extraction could be feasible within a 2.455 km stretch upstream, approximately 4.6 to 6.9 km from the confluence with the Geum River. These findings suggest that the risk of climate crises, such as extreme rainfall or droughts, could increase due to abnormal weather conditions, and the increase in variability could affect long-term aggregate extraction. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account the impact of climate change in future long-term aggregate extraction planning and policy formulation.

Assessment of the impact of climate variability on runoff change of middle-sized watersheds in Korea using Budyko hypothesis-based equation (Budyko 가설 기반 기후 탄력성을 고려한 기후변동이 우리나라 중권역 유출량 변화에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Oh, Mi Ju;Hong, Dahee;Lim, Kyung Jin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2024
  • Watershed runoff that is an important component of the hydrological processes has been significantly altered by climate variability and human activities in many watersheds around the world. It is important to investigate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change for water resource management. In this study, using watershed runoff data for 109 middle-sized watersheds in Korea, the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change were quantitatively evaluated. Using the Pittitt test, the analysis period was divided into two sub-periods, and the impacts of climate variability and human activities on the watershed runoff change were quantified using the Budyko hypothesis-based climate elasticity method. The overall results indicated that the relative contribution of climate variability and human activities to the watershed runoff change varied by middle-sized watersheds, and the dominant factors on the watershed runoff change were identified for each watershed among climate variability and human activities. The results of this study enable us to predict the watershed runoff change considering climate variability and watershed development plans, which provides useful information for establishing a water resource management plan to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters such as drought or flood.

Agroclimatic Zone and Characters of the Area Subject to Climatic Disaster in Korea (농업 기후 지대 구분과 기상 재해 특성)

  • 최돈향;윤성호
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.34 no.s02
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    • pp.13-33
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    • 1989
  • Agroclimate should be analyzed and evaluated accurately to make better use of available chimatic resources for the establishment of optimum cropping systems. Introducing of appropriate cultivars and their cultivation techniques into classified agroclimatic zone could contribute to the stability and costs of crop production. To classify the agroclimatic zones, such climatic factors as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, humidity and wind were considered as major influencing factors on the crop growth and yield. For the classification of rice agroclimatic zones, precipitation and drought index during transplanting time, the first occurrence of effective growth temperature (above 15$^{\circ}C$) and its duration, the probability of low temperature occurrence, variation in temperature and sunshine hours, and climatic productivity index were used in the analysis. The agroclimatic zones for rice crop were classified into 19 zones as follows; (1) Taebaek Alpine Zone, (2) Taebaek Semi-Alpine Zone, (3) Sobaek Mountainous Zone, (4) Noryeong Sobaek Mountainous Zone, (5) Yeongnam Inland Mountainous Zone, (6) Northern Central Inland Zone, (7) Central Inland Zone, (8) Western Soebaek Inland Zone, (9) Noryeong Eastern and Western Inland Zone, (10) Honam Inland Zone, (ll) Yeongnam Basin Zone, (12) Yeongnam Inland Zone, (13) Western Central Plain Zone, (14) Southern Charyeong Plain Zone, (15) South Western Coastal Zone, (16) Southern Coastal Zone, (17) Northern Eastern Coastal Zone, (18) Central Eastern Coastal Zone, and (19) South Eastern Coastal Zone. The classification of agroclimatic zones for cropping systems was based on the rice agroclimatic zones considering zonal climatic factors for both summer and winter crops and traditional cropping systems. The agroclimatic zones were identified for cropping systems as follows: (I) Alpine Zone, (II) Mountainous Zone, (III) Central Northern Inland Zone, (IV) Central Northern West Coastal Zone, (V) Cental Southern West Coastal Zone, (VI) Gyeongbuk Inland Zone, (VII) Southern Inland Zone, (VIII) Southern Coastal Zone, and (IX) Eastern Coastal Zone. The agroclimatic zonal characteristics of climatic disasters under rice cultivation were identified: as frequent drought zones of (11) Yeongnam Basin Zone, (17) North Eastern Coastal Zone with the frequency of low temperature occurrence below 13$^{\circ}C$ at root setting stage above 9.1%, and (2) Taebaek Semi-Alpine Zone with cold injury during reproductive stages, as the thphoon and intensive precipitation zones of (10) Hanam Inland Zone, (15) Southern West Coastal Zone, (16) Southern Coastal Zone with more than 4 times of damage in a year and with typhoon path and heavy precipitation intensity concerned. Especially the three east coastal zones, (17), (18), and (19), were subjected to wind and flood damages 2 to 3 times a year as well as subjected to drought and cold temperature injury.

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