• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가격 예측

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A Study on Flood and River Maintenance of Cheonggye-cheon Stream in the Josun Dynasty (조선시대 청계천의 홍수와 하천정비 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.209-213
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    • 2006
  • 청계천이 복원되었다. 서울시에 의하여 지난 2003년 7월부터 시작된 복원공사가 2005년 10월 준공되었다. 원래부터 청계천은 인공의 하천이었다. 조선왕조 520년의 기틀을 다지면서, 도성에 있는 자연하천을 직강화하고 양안에 석축을 쌓아 개천으로 만들었던 것이다. 하천에 인위적인 요소를 더한 것은 전적으로 홍수의 피해를 줄이기 위해서였다. 조선왕조실록에는 태종부터 헌종까지 도성에서 발생한 큰 홍수기록이 10건 소개되어 있다. 특히, 순조 32년(1832)과 헌종 12년(1846)의 피해가 컸었다. 순조 32년 6월부터 7월초까지 비가 오지 않은 날이 없다고 하였으며, 도성내 5부의 민가가 파괴된 것은 3,166호였고 죽은 자는 64명이었다. 헌종 12년 9월에도 큰 피해가 있었는데, 5부에 무너진 민가가 3,900여호나 되었다. 4대문 안의 서울은 북악산과 남산으로부터 가파르게 흐른 물이 고이기 쉬운 저지대를 형성하고 있기 때문에 침수 피해가 자주 발생하였다. 개국 초기에 여러차례의 홍수피해를 당한 후에, 태종의 본격적인 하천정비 사업은 세종 때에 완성되어 오늘날 청계천의 기본 모습을 갖추게 되었다. 임진왜란이후 개천은 상류에서 쓸려내여온 토사가 쌓여 하천으로서의 구실을 다하지 못하였다. 영조 때에는 매립된 토사로 인하여 하천 바닥이 높아졌고, 양안의 도로와 거의 같은 높이가 되었다고도 한다. 이에 영조는 대대적인 준설 사업을 펼쳤고 조선이 폐망할 때까지 주기적으로 준설을 하였다. 준설만을 한 것은 아니었다. 세종은 측우기의 발명과 함께 한강과 개천의 수위를 측정할 수 있도록 수표(水標)를 제작하였고, 역대 왕들은 큰 비가 오면 강우량과 함께 하천의 수위를 점검하였었다. 청계천을 중심으로 자연의 거친 손길에 대응하여 안정된 사회를 만들고자 조선의 왕들과 관리 그리고 백성들은 많은 노력을 기울였다. 본 고에서는 이러한 선조들의 발자취를 따라서 그 흔적들을 소개하고자 한다.없는 토양들이 있었는데 반해 남계통을 비롯한 학곡통, 회곡통, 백산통, 상주통, 석천통, 예산통 등 7개의 토양은 3kPa에서도 약간의 물의 이동이 있었다. 이는 모암이 화강 편마암인 관계로 토양 내에 물의 이동에 영향을 미치는 자갈의 함량이 높았기 때문일 것으로 생각되고 추후의 연구에서는 이 부분에 대한 내용도 검토되어야 할 것이다. 또한, 1kPa에서 물의 이동은 삼각통에서 35.21 cm/day로 이동 속도가 가장 컸으며 그 뒤로 예산통, 화봉통, 학곡통, 백산통 등이 토양에서 빠른 속도로 이동하였다. 가천통이나 석천통 및 우곡통은 1kPa에서의 이동 속도가 아주 느린 토양으로 판단되었다. 또한, 포화되지 않은 상태인 1kPa에서 물의 이동 속도를 VGM 모형에 의해 예측된 값과 측정된 값으로 비교하였을 때 불포화 수리 전도도가 예측되지 않은 토양(석천통, 지곡통, 풍천통)이 존재하여 불포화 수리 전도도 특성평가에 대한 VGM 모형의 적용성에 문제를 보였다. 이는 결과적으로 논이라는 영농형태가 존재하는 우리나라에서 토양의 수리적 특성해석을 위한 VGM 모형의 적용성에 한계가 있을 것으로 판단되었다.4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전략을 개발 및 활용할 수 있으며, 특히, 한국주식시장에 적합한 거래전략은 반전거래전략이고, 이 전략의 유용성은 투자자가 설정한 투자기간보다 더욱 긴 분석기간의 주식가격정보에 의하여 최대한

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Influential Factors of Foreign Market Entry of Korean Fashion Firms (한국 패션 기업의 해외 시장 진입에 영향을 주는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yun-Jin;Lee, Yu-Ri
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.30 no.12 s.159
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    • pp.1768-1777
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    • 2006
  • As the fashion industry comes under the influence of globalization throughout all fields of industry, the globalization and the market entry strategies are required for Korean fashion firms. This study attempted to analyze the factors influencing foreign entry mode of Korean fashion business based on Eclectic Theory. Data collection has been carried out from November 25 until December 25, 2005. The questionnaires were sent through e-mail or fax to 622 trading companies. 67 questionnaires were returned for a response rate of 10.7%. Of these returns, 61 usable questionnaires were employed for data analyses. Descriptive analysis, factor analysis, discriminant analysis, and t-test were used for data analysis. First, the most important venture motivation was price competitiveness and many firms were engaged in both production and sales in their target countries, which were mainly in Southeast Asia. Second, the firm's ability and experience were found out as ownership advantage factor, investment stability and market potential as location advantage factor, and contract stability as internalization advantage factor. Third, the result of discriminant analysis showed that location advantage factor was a significant factor in predicting the entry of fashion firms into foreign countries.

A Development of SCM Model in Chemical Industry Including Batch Mode Operations (회분식 공정이 포함된 화학산업에서의 공급사슬 관리 모델 개발)

  • Park, Jeung Min;Ha, Jin-Kuk;Lee, Euy Soo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.316-329
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    • 2008
  • Recently the increased attention pays on the processing of multiple, relatively low quantity, high value-added products resulted in adoption of batch process in the chemical process industry such as pharmaceuticals, polymers, bio-chemicals and foods. As there are more possibilities of the improvement of operations in batch process than continuous processes, a lot of effort has been made to enhance the productivity and operability of batch processes. But the chemical process industry faces a range of uncertainties factors such as demands for products, prices of product, lead time for the supply of raw materials and in the production, and the distribution of product. And global competition has made it imperative for the process industries to manage their supply chains optimally. Supply chain management aims to integrate plants with their supplier and customers so that they can be managed as a single entity and coordinate all input/output flows (of materials, information) so that products are produced and distributed in the right quantities, to the right locations, and at the right time.The objective of this study is to solve the purchase, distribution, production planning and scheduling problem, which minimizes the total costs of production, inventory, and transportation under uncertainty. And development of SCM model in chemical industry including batch mode operations. Through that, the enterprise can respond to uncertainty. Also integrated process optimal planning and scheduling model for manufacturing supply chain. The result shows that, the advantage of supply chain integration are quality matters seen by customers and suppliers, order schedules, flexibility, cost reduction, and increase in sales and profits. Also, an integration of supply chain (production and distribution system) generates significant savings by trading off the costs associated with the whole, rather than minimizing supply chain costs separately.

Disaggregate Demand Forecasting and Estimation of the Optimal Price for VTIS (부가교통정보시스템(VTIS) 이용수요예측 및 적정이용료 산정에 관한 연구)

  • 정헌영;진재업;손태민
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2002
  • VTIS(Value-added Traffic Information System), among the sub-systems of ATIS, is an Advanced Traffic System which innovates efficiency and safety. And this system, having marketability and publicness, is very important. Moreover, This system offers definite traffic information according to the demand of specified users. And it is expected to produce additional spread effects because of high participation rate of private sector. However, the VTIS service media are varied and there are varied optimal Prices and payment methods according to each medium. Because of that, there needs the study on these problems or optimal criteria. But because existing studies were devoted to estimate the optimal route, the study toward the optimal price which was considered part of user and service use demand do not exist. Accordingly, we surveyed under imaginary alternative pricing scenarios and forecasted the use demand of VTIS by using Binary Logit model. Also, for the users who answered that they would use VTIS service in survey, we classified their use's behaviors as four categories and estimated the use ratio to each category by using Ordered Probit model. Last, using sensitivity analysis for results form above, we derived the optimal price that is 2800won in monthly. 145won in payment per call. Then, VTIS service use rate is respectively 65%, 75%.

An Empirical Study on the Differential Ratio between Construction Cost for Land Development and Incurred Cost: Case of Housing Business District for Land Development in LH (택지조성원가와 발생원가의 오차에 관한 실증연구 : 택지개발사업지구를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Tae-Gyun;Chang, In-Seok;Lee, Duck-Bok;Kim, Ok-Yon
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2012
  • The current land development cost price system is classified as the creating land by construction price and composition changes that occur sporadically in the process of completion at the source of the factors by incurred cost price. Housing for land cost price system is a lack of objectivity which scheme of the such a gap due to the land in accordance construction and incurred cost price system so far. Therefore, in order to increase the objectivity of costing the costing of predictable surprises should be reflected in the process. Under such a background, this study defined the effective differential ratio as the predictable, estimated them for various characteristics of each business district to reflect. For this, set the properties category of five types to attributes and making the complex category and Look-up table. Which result of model validation is showed a high reliability. Therefore, Continuous accumulation of material in the future, when them to reflect the construction cost, will contribute to the bridge the gap the construction cost between incurred them.

An Empirical Study on Trading Techniques Using VPIN and High Frequency Data (VPIN과 고빈도 자료를 활용한 거래기법에 관한 실증연구)

  • Jung, Dae-Sung;Park, Jong-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the information effect of KOSPI200 market and KOSPI200 futures market and volume synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN). The data period is 760 days from July 8, 2015 to August 9, 2018, and the intraday trading data is used based on the trading period of the KOSPI 200 Index. The findings of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of regression analysis of the same parallax, when the level of VPIN is high, the return and volatility of KOSPI200 are high. Second, the KOSPI200 returns before and after the VPIN measurement and the return of the KOSPI200 future had a positive relationship with the VPIN. The cumulative returns of KOSPI200 futures were positive for about 15 minutes.Finally, we find that portfolios with high levels of VPIN showed high KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures return. These results confirmed the applicability of VPIN as a trading strategy index. The above results suggest that KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures markets will be able to explore volatility and price changes, and also be useful indicators of financial market risk.

Competitiveness and Yield Loss of Red Pepper by Densities of Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) P. Beauv. and Chenopodium album L. (고추밭 잡초 피와 명아주 발생밀도에 따른 경합 및 고추 수량 감소)

  • Won, Jong-Gun;Jang, Kil-Su;Hwang, Ji-Eun;Kwon, Oh-Hun;Jeon, Su-Gyung;Park, Sang-Gu
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to predict the yield loss of red pepper and to determine the economic weed thresholds levels for red pepper cultivation field from competition with the most serious weeds, Echinochlor crus-galli (L.) P. beauv. (barnyard grass) and Chenopodium album L. (goosefoot) in Youngyang of Korea. Crop yield as a function of weed density was predicted by using a rectangular hyperbola, and their economic threshold levels were determined by using the equation developed by Cousens (1987). The red pepper yield loss models of weeds were predicted as y=317.0 kg/ (1+0.1707x), $R^2$=0.895 in E. crus-galli and y=323.2 kg/(1+0.2900x), $R^2$=0.896 in C. album L.. Economic thresholds calculated using Cousens' equation was negatively related with the competitiveness of weed. Economic thresholds of each weed were calculated as 6.5 plant $100m^{-2}$ in E. crus-galli, and 3.7 plant $100m^{-2}$ in C. album L..

Yield Response of Red Pepper by Densities of D. ciliaris and A. patulus in Eco-firendly Cultivated Field (친환경 고추밭 바랭이와 가는털비름 발생밀도에 따른 고추 수량 반응)

  • Won, Jong-Gun;Jang, Kil-Su;Hwang, Ji-Eun;Kwon, Oh-Hun;Kwon, Tae-Young;Moon, Byeong-Chul
    • Weed & Turfgrass Science
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    • v.1 no.4
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    • pp.38-43
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to predict the yield response of red pepper and to determine the economic weed threshold levels for red pepper cultivation field from competition with the most serious weeds, Amaranthus patulus and Digitaria ciliaris in Youngyang of Korea. Crop yield as a function of weed density was predicted by using a rectangular hyperbola, and their economic threshold levels were determined by using the equation developed by Cousens (1987). The red pepper yield loss models of weeds were predicted as y=304.7/(1+0.063x), $R^2$=0.967 in D. ciliaris and y=281.3/(1+0.1723x), $R^2$=0.952 in A. patulus. Economic thresholds calculated using Cousens' equation were negatively related with the competitiveness of weed. Economic thresholds of each weed were calculated as 18.2 plant $100m^{-2}$ in D ciliaris, and 7.2 plant $100m^{-2}$ in A. patulus.

Polyphenols in peanut shells and their antioxidant activity: optimal extraction conditions and the evaluation of anti-obesity effects (폴리페놀 함량과 항산화력에 따른 피땅콩 겉껍질의 최적 추출 조건 확립과 항비만 기능성 평가)

  • Gam, Da Hye;Hong, Ji Woo;Yeom, Suh Hee;Kim, Jin Woo
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.116-128
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The extraction conditions for bioactive components from peanut shells, which is a byproduct of peanut processing, were optimized to enhance the total phenolic content (TPC, Y1), total flavonoid content (TFC, Y2), and 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging activity (RSA, Y3). In addition, this study evaluated the anti-obesity effect of peanut shell extract. Methods: Optimization of ultrasonic-assisted extraction (UAE) was performed using a response surface methodology. The independent variables applied for extraction were time (X1: 5.0-55.0), temperature (X2: 26.0-94.0), and ethanol concentration (X3: 0.0%-99.5%). Quadratic regression models were derived based on the results of 17 experimental sets, and an analysis of the variance was performed to verify its accuracy and precision of the regression equations. Results: When evaluating the effects of independent variables on responses using statistically-based optimization, the independent variable with the most significant effect on the TPC, TFC, and RSA was the ethanol concentration (p = 0.0008). The optimal extraction conditions to satisfy all three responses were 35.8 minutes, 82.7℃, and 96.0% ethanol. Under these conditions, the inhibitory activities of α-glucosidase and pancreatic lipase by the extract were 86.4% and 78.5%, respectively. Conclusion: In this study, UAE showed superior extraction efficiency compared to conventional hot-water extraction in the extraction of polyphenols and bioactive materials. In addition, α-glucosidase and pancreatic lipase inhibitory effects were identified, suggesting that peanut shells can be used as effective antioxidants and anti-obesity agents in functional foods and medicines.

A study on the estimation of onion's bulb weight using multi-level model (다층모형을 활용한 양파 구중 추정 연구)

  • Kim, Junki;Choi, Seung-cheon;Kim, Jaehwi;Seo, Hong-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.763-776
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    • 2020
  • Onions show severe volatility in production and price because crop conditions highly depend on the weather. The government has designated onions as a sensitive agricultural product, and prepared various measures to stabilize the supply and demand. First of all, preemptive and reliable information on predicting onion production is essential to implement appropriate and effective measures. This study aims to contribute to improving the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model to estimate the final weight of onions bulb. For the analysis, multi-level model is used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of above-ground growth data in individual units and meteorological data in parcel units. The result shows that as the number of leaf, stem diameter, and plant height in early May increase, the bulb weight increases. The amount of precipitation as well as the number of days beyond a certain temperature inhibiting carbon assimilation have negative effects on bulb weight, However, the daily range of temperature and more precipitation near the harvest season are statistically significant as positive effects. Also, it is confirmed that the fitness and explanatory power of the model is improved by considering the interaction terms between level-1 and level-2 variables.