• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가격 예측

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Open Market Sales Trend Analysis System Using Online Shopping Mall Data (온라인 쇼핑몰 데이터를 활용한 판매동향 분석 시스템)

  • Cha, Seung-yeon;Kim, Kang-ryeol;Shrestha, Labina;Kim, Yeong-ju;Choi, Jongmyung
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2019
  • As online shopping is activated by the development of the Internet, consumers' purchase form is changing from the traditional face-to-face purchase method to online purchase method. Many sellers have flowed into shopping malls, and competition among sellers is very intense. Therefore, sellers in shopping malls need to establish rational marketing strategies by analyzing consumer purchase patterns and product sales trends. In this paper, we analyzed the purchase price of consumers by analyzing the product price, rating, and sales quantity of competitors who sell the same product in open shopping malls by time zone. In addition, the collected information was visualized in a chart so that the company's and competitors' sales trends could be easily compared. Using the above system, it is possible to predict the sales volume through the analyzed purchasing pattern and to select the reasonable price of the product by grasping the sales trend.

Consumer's Demands for the T-Commerce By the Technology Adoption Types (소비자의 기술혁신수용 유형에 따른 T-Commerce 수요도)

  • Park, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.319-327
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of study is to investigate the customer oriented transaction environment for the customers' convenience, the plan of public policy in regard to the customer oriented T-Commerce, and the consumption pattern of customers' commercial transaction, necessary for the marketing strategy by analyzing the demand for the T-Commerce with the purchase intention and maximum willingness to pay according to the demographic factors, the pattern of commercial transaction, and the technology innovation types. The results showed that there were statistically significant relations between consumer's willingness price to pay for the T-commerce and the consumer's technology adoption types, monthly internet shopping amounts, and weekly TV-home shopping hours. The simulations on a basis of multiple regression analysis for the T-commerce were illustrated by those factors.

Analysis of the Korean Housing Market Mechanisms and Housing Sales Policies Using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 분양 제도 변화에 따른 주택 시장 영향 분석)

  • Park, Moon-Seo;Ahn, Chang-Bum;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Sung-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2009
  • From the beginning of 2000, Korean housing market has experienced cyclical volatility because of the global economic fluctuation such as steady decline in the interest rate and the house price bubble. In response to these state Korean Government announced policies about housing sales system kinds of Sales Unit Price Restraint and Post-Sales System to stabilize housing market. But such policies has brought unprecedented arguments both for and against, most of whom still seem to stick to self-centered judgement ahead of impact on housing market. In an integrated point of view, applying the system dynamics modeling, the paper aims at proposing basic Korean housing market dynamics models based on basis principles of housing market determined by supply and demand. And then, after research policies about housing sales system, analyze Impact on Korean Housing Market by change of Sales Systems applying policies to basic Korean housing market dynamics models.

한국(韓國)의 거시경제(巨視經濟) 분기모형(分期模型) : KDIQ92

  • Baek, Ung-Gi;O, Sang-Hun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.3-86
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    • 1993
  • 본(本) 거시경제모형(巨視經濟模型)은 "케인즈"적인 소득지출모형(所得支出模型)으로서, 최근 개방화 및 자율화추세에 따라 크게 변모한 경제구조하에서 예측의 정확도를 높이고 대내외여건(對內外與件) 변화(變化)에 기인한 제반 영향을 보다 명확하게 분석하기 위해서 작성되었다. 모형(模型)의 구조(構造)는 6개 부문, 162개의 방정식으로 구성되어 있으며, 70년대와 80년대의 구조변화(構造變化)를 고려하여 1982년부터 1991년까지를 추정대상 기간으로 삼았다. 기존의 KDI 분기모형과 비교할 때 본(本) 개정모형(改定模型)의 가장 두드러진 특징은 총량변수를 항목별로 세분하여 대내외여건 변화시 경제에 마치는 영향을 기존의 총량수준보다 한 단계 더 세분화된 수준에서 파악하고자 한 점이다. 또한 각종 가격변수들의 시장조절기능(市場調節機能)을 반영하기 위해서 금리(金利), 임금(賃金), 환율(換率) 등을 내생화(內生化)하였고, 총통화(總通貨)와 장기자본수지(長期資本收支) 등도 모형내에서 결정되도록 하였다. 역사적(歷史的) 시뮬레이션의 결과, 주요 내생변수의 평균자승근퍼센트오차가 5% 내외의 양호한 수준을 나타냄으로써 본(本) 모형(模型)이 80년대의 구조변화(構造變化)를 적절히 반영하고 있다고 볼 수 있다. 정책(政策)시뮬레이션은 원유 및 원자재수입가격과 같은 해외여건(海外與件) 변화(變化)와, 기타건설(其他建設), 정부소비지출(政府消費支出), 국내민간신용(國內民間信用)의 확대와 같은 정책변화(政策變化)의 두 부문으로 나누어 시행하였다. 원유 및 원자재가격의 상승은 우리 경제에 부(負)의 공급충격(供給衝擊)으로 작용함으로써 성장을 둔화시키고 물가를 상승시켰으며, SOC 투자를 포함한 기타건설(其他建設)의 증가(增加), 정부소비지출(政府消費支出),의 확대(擴大), 민간신용(民間信用)의 증가(增加)는 모두 단기적으로 경기부양의 효과는 있으나 장기적으로 물가를 더욱 상승시키는 것으로 나타나 물가(物價)와 성장(成長)이 서로 상충관계에 있는 것으로 파악되었다.

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한국경제(韓國經濟)의 「연간거시모형(年間巨視模型)」과 정책효과(政策效果) 분석(分析)

  • Jwa, Seung-Hui;Hwang, Seong-Hyeon;Lee, Seon-Ae
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.3-35
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    • 1993
  • 본고(本稿)의 "연간거시모형(年間巨視模型)"은 경제구조(經濟構造)가 비교적 동질적(同質的)이라 할 수 있는 1970년대 이후의 연간자료(年間資料)를 이용하여 주요총량지표(主要總量指標)의 변동을 통합(統合) 단순화(單純化)된 구조식으로 파악함으로써, 거시경제정책(巨視經濟政策) 효과분석(效果分析)과 중(中) 단기(短期) 예측에 적합하도록 개발되었다. 동(同) 모형(模型)은 주요가격변수(主要價格變數)들의 내생화와 GNP갭변수의 도입을 통해 기존모형들의 가격의 내생성(內生性) 경시 및 공급측면(供給側面) 경시적 구조를 보완하고 있으며, 80년대 이후 최근에 이르기까지 우리 경제의 거시경제변동(巨視經濟變動)을 상당히 안정적(安定的)으로 추적하는 것으로 나타났다. "연간거시모형(年間巨視模型)"에 의한 통화(通貨) 금리정책(金利政策) 효과의 분석 결과, 여(與) 수신금리(受信金利)의 인상(引上)은 실질소득(實質所得) 및 물가(物價)의 하락(下落)과 국제수지(國際收支)의 개선(改善)을 가져오는 것으로 나타났으며, 계속충격(繼續衝擊)의 경우 여(與) 수신금리(受信金利) 1%포인트의 인상은 평균 0.277%의 실질소득(實質所得) 감소효과(減少效果)를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 계속적인 통화량(通貨量) 1%의 증가는 물가(物價)를 누적적(累積的)으로 상승시켜서 4년후에는 상승효과(上昇效果)가 0.249%에 달하게 되는 것으로 나타났다. 동(同) 모형(模型)에서는 여신금리의 인상이 경제안정화(經濟安定化) 효과(效果)를 통해 오히려 실세금리(實勢金利)의 안정(安定)에 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 재정정책(財政政策)의 정책실험 결과, 정부소비(政府消費)의 증가로 나타나는 재정규모(財政規模) 증대의 경우 재정적자(財政赤字)를 수반하는 경우와 수반하지 않는 경우의 차이가 단적으로 나타났다. 재정규모(財政規模)의 증대(增大)는 두가지 경우 모두에 있어서 물가상승(物價上昇)을 유발하지만 그 실제적(實際的) 크기는 재정적자(財政赤字)를 수반하는 경우 훨씬 크게 나타났다. 재정규모(財政規模)의 증가(增加)가 일시적일 경우, 두가지 경우 모두에 있어 물가에 대한 정(正)의 효과(效果)는 지속적인 반면 실질소득(實質所得)에 대한 효과(效果)는 일시적인 것으로 나타났다.

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Long Memory and Cointegration in Crude Oil Market Dynamics (국제원유시장의 동적 움직임에 내재하는 장기기억 특성과 공적분 관계 연구)

  • Kang, Sang Hoon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.485-508
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the long memory property and investigates cointegration in the dynamics of crude oil markets. For these purposes, we apply the joint ARMA-FIAPARCH model with structural break and the vector error correction model (VECM) to three daily crude oil prices: Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In all crude oil markets, the property of long memory exists in their volatility, and the ARMA-FIAPARCH model adequately captures this long memory property. In addition, the results of the cointegration test and VECM estimation indicate a bi-directional relationship between returns and the conditional variance of crude oil prices. This finding implies that the dynamics of returns affect volatility, and vice versa. These findings can be utilized for improving the understanding of the dynamics of crude oil prices and forecasting market risk for buyers and sellers in crude oil markets.

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Studies on the Substitution of Raw Material for Soy Sauce -Part III. Use of Corn and Barley- (간장양조용 원료대체에 관한 연구 -III. 옥수수와 겉보리의 이용-)

  • Lee, Jai-Moon;Kim, Yu-Sam;Hong, Yun-Myung;Yu, Ju-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.182-186
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    • 1972
  • The possibility of substituting corn or barley for the wheat, one of the raw materials for soy sauce, was studied by measuring the amylase and proteolytic activities of koji. Also optimum conditions of koji making were determined. It was found that substitution of up to 60% of wheat content (of the total bean and wheat content) with corn, yielded good quality of soy sauce. It is also found that barley can substitute 70% of wheat content (35% of the total content).

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Design and Implementation of Intelligent Agent based Margin Push Multi-agent System for Internet Auction (인터넷 경매를 위한 지능형 에이전트 기반 마진 푸쉬 멀티에이전트 시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Lee, Geun-Wang;Kim, Jeong-Jae;Lee, Jong-Hui;O, Hae-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.9D no.1
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    • pp.167-172
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    • 2002
  • Recently, some of people are keep in research and development of the further more efficient and convenient auction systems using intelligent software agents in electronic commerce. The purpose of this thesis is that a simple auction system has web bulletin boards, is aided by intelligent agent, and generates pertinent auction duration time and starting price for auction goods of auctioneer into a auction system, then the auctioneer gets the highest margin. The seller who want to sell goods, is using internet sends mail that has information for goods to agent of internet auction system. The agent undertake filtering process for already learned information about similar goods. And it calculate duration time and start price from stored bidding history database. In this thesis we propose a mailing agent system pushing information in internet auction that enables to aid decision for auctioneer about the starting time and price which delivers the highest margin.

An Empirical Analysis of Market Power in The Dallas-Forth Worth Milk Market (Dallas-Forth Worth 우유시장의 시장지배력 측정에 관한 연구)

  • KIM, Donghun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.35-60
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we develop a dynamic structural model based on a dynamic supergame and measure market power for the Dallas-Forth Worth fluid milk market in the U.S. In particular, we compare the conduct parameter estimates from a static model with that from the dynamic model and illustrate bias in the market-power measure in a static model. And we also analyze the cyclical behavior of firm conduct. We find that the conduct parameter in a static model underestimates true market power if firms' behaviors are posited by a dynamic oligopoly game. We also verify that firm conduct in the Dallas-Forth Worth fluid milk market is countercyclical against demand shocks and expected future cost shocks. Our results indicate that the firms' conduct in the Dallas-Forth Worth fluid milk market is consistent with what dynamic oligopoly models predict. This implies that the firms consider not only the contemporary reactions of the other firms' but also future market competition. Therefore, the measurement of market power requires the specification of fully dynamic pricing relationship.

Development of a Multidisciplinary Design Framework for Urban Air Mobility (도심 항공 모빌리티의 다학제 설계 프레임워크 개발)

  • Kim, Hyunsoo;Kim, Hyeongseok;Lim, Daejin;Yee, Kwanjung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.583-590
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents a framework, MADAM(Multidisciplinary Analysis and Design for Advanced Mobility). For the actual UAM operation, not only aircraft performances but also demand, cost and flight scenarios are in connection; the overall framework is essential for the multidisciplinary design. In this study, the framework is developed and introduced. Demand and cost analysis of Gimpo-Samseong line in the Seoul area using the framework is conducted as an example result. Also, future ticket prices are estimated by applying changes in the aspects of major cost components and the price, ₩76,000, is calculated with the target for maximizing the total profit in the year 2035.