• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가강수량

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Predicting Probability of Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Network and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (인공신경망과 중규모기상수치예보를 이용한 강수확률예측)

  • Kang, Boosik;Lee, Bongki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.485-493
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    • 2008
  • The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was suggested for predicting probability of precipitation (PoP) using RDAPS NWP model, observation at AWS and upper-air sounding station. The prediction work was implemented for flood season and the data period is the July, August of 2001 and June of 2002. Neural network input variables (predictors) were composed of geopotential height 500/750/1000 hPa, atmospheric thickness 500-1000 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 500 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 750 hPa, wind speed at surface, temperature at 500/750 hPa/surface, mean sea level pressure, 3-hr accumulated precipitation, occurrence of observed precipitation, precipitation accumulated in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, precipitation occurrence in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, relative humidity measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water difference in 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run. The suggested ANN has a 3-layer perceptron (multi layer perceptron; MLP) and back-propagation learning algorithm. The result shows that there were 6.8% increase in Hit rate (H), especially 99.2% and 148.1% increase in Threat Score (TS) and Probability of Detection (POD). It illustrates that the suggested ANN model can be a useful tool for predicting rainfall event prediction. The Kuipers Skill Score (KSS) was increased 92.8%, which the ANN model improves the rainfall occurrence prediction over RDAPS.

The Character of Distribution of Solar Radiation in Mongolia based on Meteorological Satellite Data (위성자료를 이용한 몽골의 일사량 분포 특성)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Jeon, Sang-Hee;Choi, Young-Jean;Lee, Seung-Woo;Park, Young-San;Lee, Kyu-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 2012
  • Mongolia's solar-meteorological resources map has been developed using satellite data and reanalysis data. Solar radiation was calculated using solar radiation model, in which the input data were satellite data from SRTM, TERA, AQUA, AURA and MTSAT-1R satellites and the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. The calculated results are validated by the DSWRF (Downward Short-Wave Radiation Flux) from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Mongolia is composed of mountainous region in the western area and desert or semi-arid region in middle and southern parts of the country. South-central area comprises inside the continent with a clear day and less rainfall, and irradiation is higher than other regions on the same latitude. The western mountain region is reached a lot of solar energy due to high elevation but the area is covered with snow (high albedo) throughout the year. The snow cover is a cause of false detection from the cloud detection algorithm of satellite data. Eventually clearness index and solar radiation are underestimated. And southern region has high total precipitable water and aerosol optical depth, but high solar radiation reaches the surface as it is located on the relatively lower latitude. When calculated solar radiation is validated by DSWRF from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, monthly mean solar radiation is 547.59 MJ which is approximately 2.89 MJ higher than DSWRF. The correlation coefficient between calculation and reanalysis data is 0.99 and the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is 6.17 MJ. It turned out to be highest correlation (r=0.94) in October, and lowest correlation (r=0.62) in March considering the error of cloud detection with melting and yellow sand.

Intercomparison of Daegwallyeong Cloud Physics Observation System (CPOS) Products and the Visibility Calculation by the FSSP Size Distribution during 2006-2008 (대관령 구름물리관측시스템 산출물 평가 및 FSSP를 이용한 시정환산 시험연구)

  • Yang, Ha-Young;Jeong, Jin-Yim;Chang, Ki-Ho;Cha, Joo-Wan;Jung, Jae-Won;Kim, Yoo-Chul;Lee, Myoung-Joo;Bae, Jin-Young;Kang, Sun-Young;Kim, Kum-Lan;Choi, Young-Jean;Choi, Chee-Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2010
  • To observe and analyze the characteristics of cloud and precipitation properties, the Cloud physics Observation System (CPOS) has been operated from December 2003 at Daegwallyeong ($37.4^{\circ}N$, $128.4^{\circ}E$, 842 m) in the Taebaek Mountains. The major instruments of CPOS are follows: Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP), Optical Particle Counter (OPC), Visibility Sensor (VS), PARSIVEL disdrometer, Microwave Radiometer (MWR), and Micro Rain Radar (MRR). The former four instruments (FSSP, OPC, visibility sensor, and PARSIVEL) are for the observation and analysis of characteristics of the ground cloud (fog) and precipitation, and the others are for the vertical cloud characteristics (http://weamod.metri.re.kr) in real time. For verification of CPOS products, the comparison between the instrumental products has been conducted: the qualitative size distributions of FSSP and OPC during the hygroscopic seeding experiments, the precipitable water vapors of MWR and radiosonde, and the rainfall rates of the PARSIVEL(or MRR) and rain gauge. Most of comparisons show a good agreement with the correlation coefficient more than 0.7. These reliable CPOS products will be useful for the cloud-related studies such as the cloud-aerosol indirect effect or cloud seeding. The visibility value is derived from the droplet size distribution of FSSP. The derived FSSP visibility shows the constant overestimation by 1.7 to 1.9 times compared with the values of two visibility sensors (SVS (Sentry Visibility Sensor) and PWD22 (Present Weather Detect 22)). We believe this bias is come from the limitation of the droplet size range ($2{\sim}47\;{\mu}m$) measured by FSSP. Further studies are needed after introducing new instruments with other ranges.

Numerical Simulation for Net-water Flux of the Cross-sectional area in the Nakdong River Estuary (낙동강 하구역내 사주간의 단면유량플럭스 수치모의)

  • Yoon, Han-Sam;Lee, In-Cheol;Ryu, Cheong-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 2005
  • We investigated the deposition characteristics and mass transport flux estimation of the Nakdong estuary, Korea. To understand the effects of the tidal current circulation that influences estuary terrain changes, we used a 2D numerical model to map seawater circulation under three different situations, with the level of river flow being set as none or flood. The net-water flux of the cross-sectional area between sandbars (known as dung) was estimated. From our review of previous research, we know that the development of local sandbars shifted from the west to the east side of the estuary after the construction of the Nakdong River dike. Current development is occurring mostly at the Bakhap-dung near Tadea. The seawater circulation pattern over this large-scale area of tidal na is brings changes related to the quantity of the outflow from the Nakdong River. Based on the calculated results for the net-water flux of the cross-sectional area, we see very strong accumulation in local waters around Jangjiado, Bakhapdung, and Tadae under flood river flow conditions, but accumulation in local waters around Jinudo under the other states of flow. Consequently, in the Nakdong estuary, the main sensitive regions that are affected by changes in the flow of river discharge are the local waters around Jangiado, Bakhapdung, Tadae, and Jinudo.

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Effect of Topping Method on the Quality Components of Flue-cured Tobacco (연초의 적심방법이 품질구성형질에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jong-Doo;Han, Jong-Koo;Ban, Yu-Son;Lee, Jung-Duk
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 1988
  • This experiment was carried out to obtain the basic information for the improving of leaf quality by topping time and depth in flue-cured tobacco. Development of palisade parenchyma and spongy parenchyma were in order of button stage>early flower stage>late flower stage by topping time, and were in order of 4th leaf topping from floral axis>2nd leaf topping from floral axis>floral axis by topping depth. When 2nd leaf from floral axis were topped at late flower stage in A grade field and at early flower stage in B grade field, total sugar to nicotine ratio ralating to organoleptic characteristics were desirable as 9.0 and 9.7, and petroleum ether extract contents relating flavor of flue-cured tobacco were high as 9.9% and 8.4%, respectively. In ecological tissue, percentage of direct effect on quality were 43.2% in palisade parenchyma. 26.5% in spongy parechyma. 17.7% in tissue ratio, 6.7% in leaf thickness, 3.1% in intercellular space, 2.8% in leaf type and in chemical components, were 40.6% in nicotine. 35.7% in T-sugar/nicotine, 10.0% in total sugar, 7.0% in T-nitrogen/nicotine, 4.6% in total nitrogen, 2.1% in petroleum ether extract. The optimum topping depth were desirable at topping under second leaf from floral axis at late flower stage in A grade field and at early flower stage in B grade field for good leaf quality.

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