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A Comparison of Predictive Power among Forecasting Models of Monthly Frozen Mackerel Consumer Price Models (냉동 고등어 소비자가격 모형 간 예측력 비교)

  • Jeong, Min-Gyeong;Nam, Jong-Oh
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.13-28
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to compare short-term price predictive power among ARMA ARMAX and VAR forecasting models based on the MDM test using monthly consumer price data of frozen mackerel. This study also aims to help policymakers and economic actors make reasonable choices in the market on monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel. To analyze this study, the frozen wholesale prices and new consumer prices were used as variables while the price time series data were used from December 2013 to July 2021. Through the unit root test, it was confirmed that the time series variables employed in the models were stable while the level variables were used for analysis. As a result of conducting information standards and Granger causality tests, it was found that the wholesale prices and fresh consumer prices from the previous month have affected the frozen consumer prices. Then, the model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE, RMSPE, MAE, MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficient criteria where the predictive power was compared by the MDM test in order to examine which model is superior. As a result of the analysis, ARMAX(1,1) with the frozen wholesale, ARMAX(1,1) with the fresh consumer model and VAR model were selected. Through the five criteria and MDM tests, the VAR model was selected as the superior model in predicting the monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel.

Accuracy of Frozen Section Analysis of Sentinel Lymph Nodes for the Detection of Asian Breast Cancer Micrometastasis - Experience from Pakistan

  • Hashmi, Atif Ali;Faridi, Naveen;Khurshid, Amna;Naqvi, Hanna;Malik, Babar;Malik, Faisal Riaz;Fida, Zubaida;Mujtuba, Shafaq
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.2657-2662
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    • 2013
  • Background: Intraoperative sentinel lymph node biopsy has now become the standard of care for patients with clinically node negative breast cancer for diagnosis and also in order to determine the need for immediate axillary clearance. Several large scale studies confirmed the diagnostic reliability of this method. However, micrometastases are frequently missed on frozen sections. Recent studies showed that both disease free interval and overall survival are significantly affected by the presence of micrometastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of intraoperative frozen section analysis of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) for the detection of breast cancer micrometastasis and to evaluate the status of non-sentinel lymph nodes (non-SLNs) in those patients subjected to further axillary sampling. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective study on 154 patients who underwent SLN biopsy from January 2008 till October 2011. The SLNs were sectioned at 2 mm intervals and submitted entirely for frozen sections. Three levels of each section submitted are examined and the results were compared with further levels on paraffin sections. Results: Overall 40% of patients (62/154) were found to be SLN positive on final (paraffin section) histology, out of which 44 demonstrated macrometastases (>2mm) and 18 micrometastases (<2mm). The overall sensitivity and specificity of frozen section analysis of SLN for the detection of macrometastasis was found to be 100% while those for micrometastasis were 33.3% and 100%, respectively. Moreover 20% of patients who had micrometastases in SLN had positive non-SLNs on final histology. Conclusions: Frozen section analysis of SLNs lacks sufficient accuracy to rule out micrometastasis by current protocols. Therefore these need to be revised in order to pick up micrometastasis which appears to have clinical significance. We suggest that this can be achieved by examining more step sections of blocks.

Development of New Vitrification Method for Preimplantation Mouse Embryo

  • Ha, A-Na;Fakruzzaman, Md.;Lee, Kyeong-Lim;Wang, Erdan;Lee, Jae-Ik;Min, Chan-Sik;Kong, Il-Keun
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.141-147
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was attempted to new methods in mammalian embryos vitrification. This method was affected to increase of the embryo vitrification efficiency and it would be applied to the field of embryo transfer to recipient by modified loading method of embryo into 0.25 ml plastic straw. The frozen mouse embryos were carried out warmed from two different cell stages (8-cell and blastocyst, respectively) by attachment of an embryo in the vitrification straw (aV) method. All groups were cultured in M-16 medium to determine the development and survivability for 24 h, respectively. Results shown that, the survivability of two different groups were significantly different (94.8% vs. 70.9%). Total cell number was not significantly different the non-frozen blastocyst ($99.7{\pm}12.4$) compared to the post-thaw blastocyst ($94.8{\pm}15.1$). From the 8-cell embryo, total cell number of frozen blastocysts were significantly lower than others groups ($74.7{\pm}14.6$, p<0.05). In the case of cell death analysis, the blastocysts from non-frozen and frozen-thawed 8-cell group were not different ($0.0{\pm}0.0$ vs. $1.9{\pm}3.1$, p>0.05). However, the apoptotic nuclei of blastocyst were significantly observed the frozen-thawed group ($5.4{\pm}4.4$) compared to non-frozen group (p<0.05). Therefore, this new method of embryos using in-straw dilution and direct transfer into other species would be more simple procedure of embryo transfer rather than step-wise dilution method and cryopreservation vessels, so we can be applied in animal as well as human embryo cryopreservation in further.

Which Endometrial Pathologies Need Intraoperative Frozen Sections?

  • Balik, Gulsah;Kagitci, Mehmet;Ustuner, Isik;Akpinar, Funda;Guven, Emine Seda Guvendag
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.6121-6125
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    • 2013
  • Background: Endometrial cancers are the most common gynecologic cancers. Endometrial sampling is a preferred procedure for diagnosis of the endometrial pathology. It is performed routinely in many clinics prior to surgery in order to exclude an endometrial malignancy. We aimed to investigate the accuracy of endometrial sampling in the diagnosis of endometrial pathologies and which findings need intra-operative frozen sections. Materials and Methods: Three hundred nine women applying to a university hospital and undergoing endometrial sampling and hysterectomy between 2010 and 2012 were included to this retrospective study. Data were retrieved from patient files and pathology archives. Results: There was 17 patients with malignancy but endometrial sampling could detect this in only 10 of them. The endometrial sampling sensitivity and specificity of detecting cancer were 58.8% and 100%, with negative and positive predictive values of 97.6%, and 100%, respectively. In 7 patients, the endometrial sampling failed to detect malignancy; 4 of these patients had a preoperative diagnosis of complex atypical endometrial hyperplasia and 2 patients had a post-menopausal endometrial polyps and 1 with simple endometrial hyperplasia. Conclusions: There is an increased risk of malignancy in post-menopausal women especially with endometrial polyps and complex atypia hyperplasia. Endometrial sampling is a good choice for the diagnosis of endometrial pathologies. However, the diagnosis should be confirmed by frozen section in patients with post-menopausal endometrial polyps and complex atypia hyperplasia.

Effect of Interferon Supplementation on the Motility of Frozen-thawed Spermatozoa and the Pregnancy Rate after Artificial Insemination in Bovine (소에서 Interferon이 동결-융해 정자의 운동성과 인공 수정 임신율에 미치는 효과)

  • Kim, So-Seob;Park, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2013
  • The increase in the meat quality and milk production of cows, which breed Korean Native Cow (KNC) and Holstein cow, is not improving reproductive efficiency. In this study, we examined the effect of interferon (IFN) supplementation on motility of frozen-thawed semen and pregnancy rate after artificial insemination of KNC and Holstein cow. In experiment 1, we investigated the effect of IFN-tau concentration (10,000 IU and 20,000 IU) on the percentage of total motility (TM) and progressive motility (PM) of frozen-thawed spermatozoa. In experiment 2, KNC were infused 20,000 IU IFN-tau at insemination or after insemination. In experiment 3, KNC or Holstein cow were inseminated with frozen-thawed semen and infused 20,000 IU IFN-gamma or -tau after insemination. In experiment 1, the average of TM (23.9% to 30.9%) and PM (18.5% to 21.9%) were similar between control and treatments. In experiment 2, the pregnancy rates of IFN infusing times were not different from 45.8% to 53.6%. In experiment 3, the pregnancy rates of Holstein cow infused different kinds of IFN were similar (control, IFN-gamma, IFN-tau; 42.9%, 40.5%, 48.0%). In the case of KNC, however, the pregnancy rate of control was 55.6%, which was significantly lower than that of IFN-gamma (68.9%; p<0.05). Thus, IFN is effective on the improvement of reproductive efficiency, but further study is needed.

An Experimental Study on Freezing Behavior of NaCl and Heavy Metal Aqueous Solution Using Freeze Concentration Method (동결농축법을 이용한 염수 및 중금속 수용액의 동결거동에 관한 실험 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Sik;Lim, Seung-Taek;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.129-135
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    • 2013
  • Recently, waste water treatment system is developed in small and middle size to get more economic advantage. Freeze concentration system has high thermodynamic efficiency and low energy consumption, can re-use purified water and cold energy obtained from ice. This study was experimentally performed to investigate pollution containment in frozen layer by cooling wall temperature, air-bubble flow methods, initial ice-lining thickness of frozen layer in NaCl aqueous solution and the representative heavy metals, Pb and Cr aqueous solution. As the result, a decrease in the cooling wall temperature bring a higher growth rate of ice front and the more solute was involved in frozen layer. The method to inject directly air-bubble into ice-liquid interface through ring shape nozzle gave high purity of ice compared to indirect method. Ice lining in 5mm thickness resulted in frozen layer with higher purity than 1mm thickness.

Nutritional Characteristics and Quality Changes of Duck By-products During Frozen Storage at -20℃ (오리 부산물 종류별 영양학적 특성 및 냉동저장 (-20℃)에 따른 품질변화)

  • Ku, Su Kyung;Hwang, Soon Hoe;Lim, Sang Dong;Lee, Kang Hyun;Kim, Young Boong
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is to increase the utilization of duck by-products. The nutritional characteristics of four kinds of duck by-products (liver, heart, gizzard, and feet) were determined. The quality changes of four kinds of duck by-products were evaluated during frozen storage at $-20^{\circ}C$. The crude protein and cholesterol contents showed the highest level in liver while the crude fat content was determined to be the highest content in feet at 13.90%, and lowest in gizzard at 0.57%. Duck by-products contained USFA in the range of 48.69-77.66%, and the highest level in feet (p<0.05). During storage of duck by-products at $-20^{\circ}C$, the pH of duck by-products was in the range of 6.24-7.15, and there were no significant differences during the 4 mon storage period at $-20^{\circ}C$. Microbial counts of duck by-products except the gizzard were decreased significantly as storage time elapsed. In the sensory evaluation, overall acceptability of by-products (liver, heart, gizzard and feet) showed a tendency of decreasing value through storage, because off-flavor was increased with increased storage. Considering the combined results, one can conclude that duck by-products provide a good source of protein, and it was judged that the use of raw meat would be most appropriate within 3 mon of frozen storage.

Microbiological and Sensory Characteristics of Gamma-irradiated Frozen Bibimbap (감마선 조사 냉동비빔밥의 미생물 및 관능적 품질특성)

  • Park, Jae-Nam;Song, Beom-Seok;Yoon, Young-Min;Choi, Soo-Jeong;Park, Jong-Heum;Kim, Jae-Kyung;Byun, Eui-Baek;Lee, Ju-Woon;Han, In-Jun;Sohn, Hee-Sook;Kim, Jae-Hun
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.7 no.2_3
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of gamma irradiation on the microbiological and sensory characteristics of frozen Bibimbap. Frozen Bibimbap vegetables were contaminated by microbial levels of $2.70{\sim}6.67log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$ in total aerobic bacteria. Frozen Bibimbap was contaminated by microbial levels of $4.8log\;CFU\;g^{-1}$ in total aerobic bacteria, but microorganisms in gamma-irradiated samples at above 25 kGy were not found at detection limit less then $1log\;CFUg^{-1}$. Sensory characteristics of the gamma-irradiated Bibimbap were decreased depending upon the irradiation dose, and sensory scores of the samples irradiated with doses higher than 10 kGy were significantly decreased. Therefore, the application of combination of the various food processing technology should be considered for the sterilization of Bibimbap, without any deterioration of quality occurred by high dose irradiation.

Evaluation of Fertilizing Ability using Frozen Thawed Sperm in the Longtooth Grouper, Epinephelus bruneus

  • Oh, Seong-Rip;Lee, Chi-Hoon;Kang, Hyeong-Cheol;Song, Young-Bo;Kim, Hyung-Bae;Lee, Young-Don
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.345-351
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    • 2013
  • This study examines the effects on fertilization rate (FR), hatching rate (HR), and normal individual rate after artificial fertilization using frozen thawed sperm according to the cryoprotectant (DMSO) concentration and the period of cryopreserved sperm of longtooth grouper, Epinephelus bruneus. Performing artificial fertilization using frozen-thawed sperm, after freezing the sperm at different DMSO concentration of 5.0%, 7.5%, 10.0% respectively, FR were (DMSO 5.0%: $99.5{\pm}0.8%$, DMSO 7.5%: $99.5{\pm}0.7%$, and DMSO 10.0%: $99.6{\pm}0.6%$). The results are not significantly different from the control fresh sperm (100%). HR also (DMSO 5.0%: $96.2{\pm}2.3%$, DMSO 7.5%: $95.3{\pm}3.6%$, 10.0%: $96.6{\pm}1.8%$) were not significantly different in each group. The normal individual rate after hatching using with control fresh sperm ($98.4%{\pm}0.5$) and DMSO concentration level of 5.0% ($97.8{\pm}0.1%$) were not significantly different. However, with 7.5% ($97.2{\pm}0.6%$) and 10.0% DMSO concentrations ($95.9{\pm}0.2%$) are lower than the normal individual rate after hatching observed in the control and 5.0% DMSO. Performing artificial fertilization using frozen-thawed sperm at different frozen period (2 days, 2 years, and 3 years), 10% DMSO FR and HR of 3 years (FR; $66.8{\pm}1.8%$, HR: $82.0{\pm}12.9%$) and 2 years (FR; $78.5{\pm}14.8%$, HR: $79.3{\pm}0.6%$) cryopreserved sperm were lower than control (FR; 100%, HR: $91.1{\pm}3.6%$) and 2 days cryopreserved sperm (FR; $99.6{\pm}0.6%$, HR: $96.6{\pm}1.8%$). These results suggest suitable DMSO concentration ranges of cryopreservation sperm for E. bruneus is 5 to 10% and with 2 to 3 years cryopreservation period, cryopreservation sperm can be useful for seed production.