• 중국학논총
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• 제65호
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• pp.235-264
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• 2020

本文稿旨在就世界经济两大支柱体美国和中国在过去2年间持续的贸易纷争的背景和性质, 发展过程以及对两国经济的影响等进行概括总结。与此同时, 本文还将探索贸易摩擦作为G2之间争夺霸权的战争, 是否会波及到日益紧张的南中国海以及台湾海峡的局势。为此, 本文还将就以2008年世界金融危机为起点飞跃发展的中国, 与在冷战后维持单极体制的美国相对抗进而逐渐确立新两国体制的过程, 以及G2格局出现以后, 美, 中新冷战格局形成的过程等进行研究。

• Strategy21
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• 통권42호
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• pp.224-257
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• 2017

As the Trump administration withdraws the Paris Climate Agreement and shows its antipathy toward free trade, the U.S.'s soft power is most likely to weaken and its behaviors could be perceived as acts to surrender the U.S. hegemonic leadership in the world stage. Hegemonic stability theory notes that the existence of a hegemonic power contributes to international stability in the sense that it provides international public goods. A lack of the U.S's leadership in international politics, however, could be recognized as its denial of a hegemonic status. Is it intentional or accidental? The U.S's denial of hegemonic roles is the byproduct of the Trump administration's "American First" policy, not the showcase of its intention to transit hegemony to others. What is noteworthy is that China targets a niche market of hegemony as the U.S. denies its roles as the international leader. Put it another way, China attempts to ride hegemony for free when the U.S. denies its hegemonic roles accidentally. Faced with a niche market of hegemony, China has begun to accelerate its national strategy to make "Chinese Dream" come true. To that end, China promised again to keep the Paris Climate Agreement and attempts to play more active its roles in Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO), Asia Infra Investment Bank(AIIB), and "One Belt, One Road". Despite all these efforts, the U.S. is most likely to withdraw its denial of hegemony any time soon. The U.S's resumption of Freedom of Navigation Operations(FONOPs) could be a precursor of the return to a hegemonic power's willingness. In this vein, it is noteworthy that the South China Sea serves as a quasi-war zone for hegemonic conflict.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.273-285
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• 2006

As the political arguments on international power concept has gradually been deepened, the role of international regimes, defined as principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which nation-actors' expectations converge in a given issue-area, has also been reinforced. There are many ways of understanding about international regimes. In terms of realistic theories, international regimes are one of methods of maintaining hegemonic power order of hegemonic nation and in terms of liberalistic theories, international regimes are understood as the products of mutual inter-dependence of nations in changing international society. As a matter of fact, if we take structural causes and regime consequences into severe consideration, we can find not a few characteristics of international regimes, such as security regime, world trade and fiance regime, ocean regime, environmental regime, human right regime, etc. This paper will examine the changing concept of power after World War II in three categories of hard power (military power), meta power (regime creating power), and soft power (advanced in cultural, diplomatical, and technological power). This paper will provide the evidence of why the changing power concepts will be strongly related with the emergence of international regimes. The UN convention on the law of the sea will chosen as a standard case of the ocean regime and it's regime structure and role will also be analysed in both realistic :md liberalistic theories. Futhermore, the nations' interests involved in the UN convention on the law of the sea will be analytically classified and finally a future prospectus of the UN convention on the law of the sea as an ocean regime will be tested.

• 비교문화연구
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• 제52권
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• pp.165-194
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• 2018

본 연구는 환구시보 4월 7일 "용타항미원조적의지타대미무역전(用打抗美援朝的意志打對美貿易戰)" 사설에 대하여 비판적 담화분석의 접근법을 활용하여 텍스트 기술, 상호텍스트성, 사회문화적 수행 설명으로 구분하여 분석하였다. 본 사설은 '전쟁(戰爭)'과 관련된 어휘와 프레임을 집중적으로 사용하고 있다. 첫째, "무역전(貿易戰)"과 "항미원조(抗美援朝)"는 은유와 전쟁프레임을 보여주는 예이다. 둘째, "전략(戰略)"은 미국과 중국에 각각 부정적, 긍정적으로 사용되고 있다. 셋째, 다양한 전쟁 용어가 사용되었다. 넷째, '인유법(引喩法)'을 살펴보면, 전쟁관련 표현이 보인다. 본 사설의 상호텍스트성에서 두 가지 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 첫째, 환구시보가 '대등한 보복'을 줄곧 사용하고 있다. 이유는 자신의 반격을 정당화하고, 그런 중국이 하는 전쟁은 '자위적 차원의 반격전(自衛反擊戰)'이 되도록 포장해주기 위함이다. 둘째, '싸우기는 싫은데, 싸움이 두렵지는 않다'라는 표현이 여러 사설에서 반복되었다. 그 이유는 다음과 같다. (1) 인민의 결집을 호소. (2) 공포심을 일으켜, 그들이 결집해야만 하는 이유를 암암리에 부여. (3) "두렵지 않다"를 통해 중국은 체면을 차리고, 미국에게는 "싸우기 싫다"는 '싸인'을 보내기 위함이다. 맥락상 같은 논지가 약 3개월(2018.03.23.-06.17)의 시간차를 두고 9개 사설에서 비슷한 표현으로 보이는 것은 상호텍스트성의 예라 할 것이다. 본 사설의 사회문화적 수행은 중국 정부의 패권 이데올로기를 전파함에 있다. 첫째, 핵심 국책사업 '중국제조(中國製造)2025'는 절대 포기할 수 없음을 분명히 밝힌 것이다. 둘째, 사설은 "항미원조(抗美援朝)"를 소명하여 미국을 비난 협박하고, 민심의 이반을 다독이며 결집을 호소, 시진핑 정부에 힘을 실어 주고자 하는 의도이다. 셋째, 중국은 미국과의 협상의 여지를 열어두고자 하고 있다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.137-152
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• 2023

Purpose - Although many existing studies on the US-China hegemonic conflict and decoupling have been published, most of them are qualitative and use descriptive analysis methods. Papers that quantitatively analyzed decoupling mainly estimate the effect of a tariff increase. However, this paper quantitatively analyzed the ripple effect by focusing on decoupling technology spillover between the United States and China. And, for the first time, it was suggested that the blocking of technology spillover could give a fatal blow to the East Asian economy as well as China. Design/methodology - The United States is pursuing decoupling with China, primarily in goods trade and blocking technology transfer. This paper sets up various scenarios and uses three computational general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the overall ripple effects of decoupling. A paper using the three CGE models for decoupling ripple effect analysis has not yet been published. Findings - Decoupling will hit the economies of regions with close economic ties to China more than others. According to simulation results of this study, the Chinese economy may suffer severe damage that is difficult to recover from, and the economies of Asian countries are predicted to deteriorate to the point of being choked. Originality/value - Existing papers that assessed the effect of decoupling mostly focus on estimating the effect itself through tariff hikes. This paper is meaningful in that it comprehensively analyzed decoupling by adding the effect of technology spillover blockade. In addition, another meaning can be found in that it quantified for the first time that it will deal a huge blow to the extent of choking the East Asian economy as well as China.