• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.1154-1162
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• 2019

China is undertaking an energy reform from fossil fuels to clean energy to accomplish $CO_2$ intensity (CI) reduction commitments. After hydropower, nuclear energy is potential based on breadthwise comparison with the world and analysis of government energy consumption (EC) plan. This paper establishes a CI energy policy response forecasting model based on national and provincial EC plans. This model is then applied in Fujian Province to predict its CI from 2016 to 2020. The result shows that CI declines at a range of 43%-53% compared to that in 2005 considering five conditions of economic growth in 2020. Furthermore, Fujian will achieve the national goals in advance because EC is controlled and nuclear energy ratio increased to 16.4% (the proportion of non-fossil in primary energy is 26.7%). Finally, the development of nuclear energy in China and the world are analyzed, and several policies for energy optimization and CI reduction are proposed.