• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2024

Predicting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge due to the complexity of the disease and its evolving nature. This study presents an integrated approach using the classic SIR model for infectious diseases, enhanced by the chemical master equation (CME). We employ a Monte Carlo method (SSA) to solve the model, revealing unique aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. The study, a first of its kind in Korea, adopts a step-by-step and complementary approach to model prediction. It starts by analyzing the epidemic's trajectory at local government levels using both basic and stochastic SIR models. These models capture the impact of public health policies on the epidemic's dynamics. Further, the study extends its scope from a single-infected individual model to a more comprehensive model that accounts for multiple infections using the jump SIR prediction model. The practical application of this approach involves applying these layered and complementary SIR models to forecast the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in small to medium-sized local governments, particularly in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. The results from these models are then compared and analyzed.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2733-2746
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• 2018

The two inverse regression estimation methods, SIR and SAVE to estimate the central space are computationally easy and are widely used. However, SIR and SAVE may have poor performance in finite samples and need strong assumptions (linearity and/or constant covariance conditions) on predictors. The two non-parametric estimation methods, MAVE and dMAVE have much better performance for finite samples than SIR and SAVE. MAVE and dMAVE need no strong requirements on predictors or on the response variable. MAVE is focused on estimating the central mean subspace, but dMAVE is to estimate the central space. This paper explores and compares four methods to explain the dimension reduction. Each algorithm of these four methods is reviewed. Empirical study for simulated data shows that MAVE and dMAVE has relatively better performance than SIR and SAVE, regardless of not only different models but also different distributional assumptions of predictors. However, real data example with the binary response demonstrates that SAVE is better than other methods.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.58 no.1
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• pp.45-67
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• 2021

In this paper, a mathematical dynamical system involving both deterministic (with or without delay) and stochastic "SIR" epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate in a continuous reactor is considered. A profound qualitative analysis is given. It is proved that, for both deterministic models, if ��d > 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if ��d ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Concerning the stochastic model, the Feller's test combined with the canonical probability method were used in order to conclude on the long-time dynamics of the stochastic model. The results improve and extend the results obtained for the deterministic model in its both forms. It is proved that if ��s > 1, the disease is stochastically permanent with full probability. However, if ��s ≤ 1, then the disease dies out with full probability. Finally, some numerical tests are done in order to validate the obtained results.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.729-741
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• 2011

Wind speeds have long been estimated from C-band VV-polarized SAR data by using the CMOD algorithms such as CMOD4, CMOD5, and CMOD_IFR2. Some SAR data with HH-polarization without any observations in VV-polarization mode should be converted to VV-polarized value in order to use the previous algorithms based on VV-polarized observation. To satisfy the necessity of polarization ratio (PR) for the conversion, we retrieved the conversion parameter from full-polarized SIR-C SAR image off the east coast of Korea. The polarization ratio for SIR-C SAR data was estimated to 0.47. To assess the accuracy of the polarization ratio coefficient, pseudo VV-polarized normalized radar cross section (NRCS) values were calculated and compared with the original VV-polarized ones. As a result, the estimated psudo values showed a good agreement with the original VV-polarized data with an root mean square error by 0.99 dB. We applied the psudo NRCS to the estimation of wind speeds based on the CMOD wind models. Comparison of the retrieved wind field with the ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data showed relatively small rms errors of 1.88 and 1.91 m/s, respectively. SIR-C HH-polarized SAR wind retrievals met the requirement of the scatterometer winds in overall. However, the polarization ratio coefficient revealed dependence on NRCS value, wind speed, and incident angle.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.6151-6158
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• 2013

Radio frequency ablation (RFA) is an effective means of achieving local control of liver cancer. It is a particularly suitable mode of therapy for small and favorably located tumors. However, local progression rates are substantially higher for large tumors (>3.0 cm). In the current study, we report on a mathematical model based on geometric optimization to treat large liver tumors. A database of mathematical models relevant to the configuration of liver cancer was also established. The specific placement of electrodes and the frequency of ablation were also optimized. In addition, three types of liver cancer lesion were simulated by computer guidance incorporating mathematical models. This approach can be expected to provide a more effective and rationale mechanism for employing RFA in the therapy of hepatic carcinoma.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.119-138
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• 2023

Concrete carbonation is a prevalent phenomenon that leads to steel reinforcement corrosion in reinforced concrete (RC) structures, thereby decreasing their service life as well as durability. The process of carbonation results in a lower pH level of concrete, resulting in an acidic environment with a pH value below 12. This acidic environment initiates and accelerates the corrosion of steel reinforcement in concrete, rendering it more susceptible to damage and ultimately weakening the overall structural integrity of the RC system. Lower pH values might cause damage to the protective coating of steel, also known as the passive film, thus speeding up the process of corrosion. It is essential to estimate the carbonation factor to reduce the deterioration in concrete structures. A lot of work has gone into developing a carbonation model that is precise and efficient that takes both internal and external factors into account. This study presents an ML-based adaptive-neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach to predict the carbonation depth of fly ash (FA)-based concrete structures. Cement content, FA, water-cement ratio, relative humidity, duration, and CO2 level have been used as input parameters to develop the ANFIS model. Six performance indices have been used for finding the accuracy of the developed model and two analytical models. The outcome of the ANFIS model has also been compared with the other models used in this study. The prediction results show that the ANFIS model outperforms analytical models with R-value, MAE, RMSE, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values of 0.9951, 0.7255 mm, 1.2346 mm, and 0.9957, respectively. Surface plots and sensitivity analysis have also been performed to identify the repercussion of individual features on the carbonation depth of FA-based concrete structures. The developed ANFIS-based model is simple, easy to use, and cost-effective with good accuracy as compared to existing models.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.08a
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• pp.77.6-78
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• 2008

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.33-40
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• 2018

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods: This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The $Besag-York-Molli{\acute{e}}$ (BYM) model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results: The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05). The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53), living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96), not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68) were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range) and mean (standard deviation) values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01) and 1.05 (1.31), respectively. Conclusions: Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.65 no.3
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• pp.315-325
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• 2018

This paper predicts the flexural behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) beams strengthened with a precast strip of ultra-high performance fiber-reinforced concrete (UHPFRC). In the first phase, ultimate load capacity of preloaded and strengthened RC beams by UHPFRC was predicted by using various analytical models available in the literature. RC beams were preloaded under static loading approximately to 70%, 80% and 90% of ultimate load of control beams. The models such as modified Kaar and sectional analysis predicted the ultimate load in close agreement to the corresponding experimental observations. In the second phase, the famous fatigue life models such as Papakonstantinou model and Ferrier model were employed to predict the number of cycles to failure and the corresponding deflection. The models were used to predict the life of the (i) strengthened RC beams after subjecting them to different pre-loadings (70%, 80% and 90% of ultimate load) under static loading and (ii) strengthened RC beams after subjecting them to different preloading cycles under fatigue loading. In both the cases precast UHPFRC strip of 10 mm thickness is attached on the tension face. It is found that both the models predicted the number of cycles to failure and the corresponding deflection very close to the experimental values. It can be concluded that the models are found to be robust and reliable for cement based strengthening systems also. Further, the Wang model which is based on Palmgren-Miner's rule is employed to predict the no. of cycles to failure and it is found that the predicted values are in very good agreement with the corresponding experimental observations.

• Composites Research
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.311-316
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• 2018

In the present study, the effect of GO in damping capacity of CF/epoxy laminates was studied via free vibration analysis. The composite laminates were manufactured by using vacuum assisted resin transfer molding technique. The damping properties of the prepared hybrid composites were determined in terms of natural frequency and damping ratio in free vibration test. The foremost aspire of this investigation was to compare the vibration properties i.e. natural frequency and modal damping of the prepared composites with the numerical results. The numerical study was carried out via FEA using $ANSYS^{TM}$ workbench software. The parametric study of the numerical models was also studied considering the beam free length and the beam thickness. It was found that the incorporation of GO enhanced the damping capacity of the composite and the variation of natural frequencies in mode1varied by 2-5% compared to the experimental study.