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Optimum Population Projection in Korea: An Environmental Perspective  

Jeong, Dae-Yuon (제주대학교 사회학과)
Publication Information
Korea journal of population studies / v.29, no.1, 2006 , pp. 269-292 More about this Journal
Abstract
The current environmental problem is global, and threatens the very existence of human beings. Many factors have been argued as the causes of environmental problem. The examples include anthroponcentric human perspective on nature, increase in the knowledge on nature, development of technology, economic growth and unequal distribution, and population increase, etc. The scholars who argues population increase have focused on over-population. However, the estimation of optimum population size has not been attempted in terms of environmental carrying capacity. In such a context, this paper aims at estimating optimum population size in South Korea in terms of environmental carrying capacity. The estimation was done from two approaches. One was based on the state of environment, the other was based on 'the desirable state of environment' Koreans expect. The former is termed an objective approach, while the latter is termed an approach based on social consensus. About 47.5 millions were estimated from the former approach, and 48.5 millions from the latter approach. However, optimum population size increase by 50.5 millions if government increase environmental budget to 2.00% among total budget. As such, different optimum population size is estimated according to the values of variables. The most significant variable determining optimum population size is environmental budget, and followed by supply of clean energy. The estimated optimum population size was based on the time-series data from 1993 to 2002. Therefore, time-series data collected from other years will result in different estimation model, and then different optimum population size will be estimated.
Keywords
환경문제;인구와 환경의 관계;적정인구;환경부하량;점용환경용량;
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