Minimum Number of Input Ground-motions to Assess Seismic Performance of Nuclear Facilities

Currently, researches are being actively conducted in assessing seismic performance of nuclear facilities in USA and Europe. In particular, applying this technique of assessing seismic performance to design of isolation systems in nuclear power plants is being performed and then ASCE 4 Draft (2013) is being revised accordingly in the United States. In order to satisfy the probabilistic performance objectives described by seismic responses with certain confidence levels (ASCE 43, 2005), the probability distributions of these responses have to be defined. What is the minimum number of input ground-motions to obtain the probability distribution precise enough to represent the unknown actual distribution? Theoretical basis, for how to determine the minimum number of input ground-motions for given a logarithmic standard deviation to approximate the unknown actual median of the log-normal distribution within a range of error at a certain level of confidence, is introduced by Huang et al. (2008). However, the relationship between the level of confidence and the range of error is not stated in the previous study. In this paper, based on careful reviews on the previous work, the relationship between the level of confidence and the range of error is logically and explicitly stated. Furthermore, this relationship is also applied to derive the minimum number of input ground-motions in order to approximate the unknown actual logarithmic standard deviation. Several recommendations are made for determining the minimum number of input ground-motions in probabilistic assessment on seismic performance of facilities in nuclear power plants.

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