Nuclear Engineering and Technology

Korean Nuclear Society (한국원자력학회)
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Assessing the nuclear weapons proliferation risks in nuclear energy newcomer countries: The case of small modular reactors

  • Philseo Kim (Liu Institute for Global Issues, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia) ;
  • Sunil S. Chirayath (Center for Nuclear Security Science and Policy Initiatives, Texas A&M University)
  • Received : 2023.11.27
  • Accepted : 2024.03.13
  • Published : 2024.08.25
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Abstract

While several nuclear energy newcomer (NEN) countries have shown interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a potential energy source, this interest can generate new uncertainties regarding future nuclear weapons proliferation risks. Therefore, this research seeks to determine whether future SMR deployment in NEN countries will contribute to nuclear weapons proliferation, and how the risks can be mitigated. This research uses the Bayesian network statistical approach in conjunction with surveys of experts to assess nuclear proliferation risks when NEN countries deploy SMRs or a large commercial nuclear reactor. The results indicate that an NEN with a strong commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation norms and a stable security environment will experience a lower probability of having higher proliferation risks relative to the United Arab Emirates. Specifically, we demonstrate that experts anticipate a minimal escalation in proliferation risks across different SMR types. Instead, the results show that enrichment or reprocessing (E&R) facilities, if associated with an SMR, exert a substantial influence on proliferation risks. Lastly, implementing a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) retrieval system could serve as an option to mitigate proliferation risks in an NEN country. These findings offer insights for leading nuclear supplier countries to alleviate the potential proliferation risks by NEN countries.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

The authors thank Matthew Fuhrmann for giving us valuable comments on this study. This study is performed as part of the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow Program funded by the Stanton Foundation.

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