KDI Journal of Economic Policy

  • 제46권3호
  • /
  • Pages.49-66
  • /
  • 2024
  • /
  • 2586-2995(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2586-4130(eISSN)
한국개발연구원 (Korea Development Institute)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Exports to the US and Imports from China during the US-China Tariff War: Evidence from Regional Trade Data in Vietnam

  • 투고 : 2024.06.07
  • 발행 : 2024.08.31
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

This study empirically investigates how the exports of downstream products to the US change the imports of their upstream products from China during the US-China tariff war. To accomplish this, we use province-level trade data in Vietnam, known to be a country that increased its exports to the US market in place of China, i.e., known to enjoy a trade diversion in the US market. The use of regional trade data enables us to capture the input-output linkages more precisely. Specifically, focusing on the trade in general and electrical machinery industries from January of 2019 to December of 2023, we regress imports of upstream products from China on exports of their downstream products to the US, finding that the rise of exports of downstream products to the US significantly increases imports of their upstream products from China. On the other hand, the rise in these products does not significantly increase the imports of upstream products from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Furthermore, the input-output linkage between exports to the US and imports from China was found to be greater in provinces with better business environments in terms of entry costs, transparency in public services, and public support to businesses.

키워드

과제정보

I would like to thank two anonymous referees, Juyoung Cheong, and the participants in the KDI conference for their helpful comments. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 22H00063 and 24H12345. All remaining errors are mine.

참고문헌

  1. Alfaro, Laura and Davin Chor. 2023. Global Supply Chains: The Looming "Great Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. 2019. The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4): 187-210.
  3. Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. 2020. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110: 541-46.
  4. Baldwin, Richard, Rebecca Freeman, and Angelos Theodorakopoulos. 2023. Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance, NBER Working Papers 31820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bellemare, Marc F. and Casey J. Wichman. 2020. Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(1): 50-61.
  6. Bown, Chad P. 2021. The US-China Trade War and Phase One Agreement, Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(4): 805-843.
  7. Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. 2021. Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy, American Economic Review: Insights, 3(1): 19-34.
  8. Choi, Bo-Young and Thuy Linh Nguyen. 2023. Trade Diversion Effects of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam, Pacific Economic Review, 28(4): 570-588.
  9. Chor, Davin and Bingjing Li. 2024. Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy, Journal of International Economics, 150: 103926.
  10. Cui, Chuantao and Leona Shao-Zhi Li. 2021. The Effects of the US-China Trade War on Chinese New Firm Entry, Economics Letters, 203: 109846.
  11. Fajgelbaum, Pablo D., Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy, Amit K. Khandelwal. 2020. The Return to Protectionism, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1): 1-55.
  12. Fajgelbaum, Pablo, D., Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal, and Daria Taglioni. 2024. The U.S.-China Trade War and Global Reallocations, American Economic Review: Insights, 6(2): 295-312.
  13. Fajgelbaum, Pablo D., and Amit K. Khandelwal. 2022. The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War, Annual Review of Economics, 14(1): 205-228.
  14. Freund, Caroline, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, and Michele Ruta. 2023. Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains?, Policy Research Working Paper 10593, Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
  15. Ha, Lam Thanh and Nguyen Duc Phuc, 2019, The US-China Trade War: Impact on Vietnam, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Perspective, No. 102.
  16. Handley, Kyle, Fariha Kamal, and Ryan Monarch. 2024. Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism, Forthcoming in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.
  17. Hayakawa, Kazunobu. 2022. The Trade Impact of U.S.-China Conflict in Southeast Asia, IDE Discussion Papers 873, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization.
  18. Hayakawa, Kazunobu. 2024. Do Exports to the US Increase Imports from China during the US-China Tariff War?, Mimeograph.
  19. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, Ju-Hyun Pyun, Nobuaki Yamashita, and Chih-Hai Yang, C. 2024. Ripple Effects in Regional Value Chains: Evidence from an Episode of the US-China Trade War, The World Economy, 47(3): 880-897.
  20. Hayakawa, Kazunobu and Sasatra Sudsawasd. 2024. Trade Effects of the US-China Trade War on a Third Country: Preventing Trade Rerouting from China, IDE Discussion Papers 916, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization.
  21. Jones, Claire, Christine Murray, and Keith Fray. 2024. China Circumvents US Tariffs by Shipping More Goods via Mexico, Financial Times, February 21, 2024. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/2ca4da83-f858-4215-88e7-544adf0aa18e (Accessed on February 26, 2024).
  22. Ma, Hong, Jingxin Ning, and Mingzhi Xu. 2021. An Eye for an Eye? The Trade and Price Effects of China's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Exports, China Economic Review, 69: 101685.
  23. Mayr-Dorn, Karin, Gaia Narciso, Duc Anh Dang, Hien Phan. 2023. Trade Diversion and Labor Market Adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China Trade War, Trinity Economics Papers tep0923, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  24. Ngoc, Pham Phuong and Dainn Wie. 2023. Fishing in Troubled Waters: the Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam. Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=4484771.
  25. Rotunno, Lorenzo, Sanchari Roy, Anri Sakakibara, and Pierre-Louis Vezin. 2023. Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of Trump's Trade War, QPE Working Paper 2023-56, Quantitative Political Economy Research Group, Department of Political Economy, King's College London.
  26. Yang, Chih-Hai and Kazunobu Hayakawa. 2023. The Substitution Effect of U.S.-China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade, The Developing Economies, 61(4): 324-341.