한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제57권8호
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  • Pages.533-548
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  • 2024
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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국내 홍수회복력 지표 개발과 적용성 및 중요도 평가

Developing domestic flood resilience indicators and assessing applicability and significance

  • 김수홍 (한국환경연구원 통합물관리연구실) ;
  • 정기철 (한국환경연구원 성과관리팀) ;
  • 강형식 (한국환경연구원 통합물관리연구실) ;
  • 신서영 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부) ;
  • 김지은 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부) ;
  • 박대룡 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부)
  • Kim, Soohong (Division for Integrated Water Management, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Jung, Kichul (Performance Management Team, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Kang, Hyeongsik (Division for Integrated Water Management, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Shin, Seoyoung (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Jieun (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Park, Daeryong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 투고 : 2024.04.16
  • 심사 : 2024.07.22
  • 발행 : 2024.08.31
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초록

최근 기후변화와 이상기후로 인해 지금까지 경험하지 못했던 극한 강우의 발생이 빈번해지고 있다. 홍수 피해 자체를 완벽히 예측하거나 제거하는 것은 한계가 존재하여 기존의 예방 중심의 대응보다는 신속히 이전의 상태로 복구하거나 더 나은 상태로 개선하는 능력을 의미하는 '회복력(Resilience)' 개념이 중시되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 1) 4R (가외성(Redundancy), 내구성(Robustness), 신속성(Rapidity), 자원부존성(Resourcefulness))을 기반으로 국내 홍수회복력 지표를 개발하였다. 특별재난지역을 대상으로 적용성 평가를 수행하였으며 개발된 홍수회복력 지표의 적합성을 확인하기 위해 다중공선성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과 20개 지표 모두 공차 한계 0.1 이상, VIF (Variance Inflation Factor) 10 미만으로 다중공선성이 존재하지 않아 인자로서의 적합성을 갖는 것으로 판단하였다. 또한 각 지표의 상대적 중요도를 판단하기 위해 AHP 분석 방법을 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 지표별 중요도는 내구성 0.46, 신속성 0.22, 가외성 0.17, 자원동원력이 0.16으로 내구성이 가장 큰 중요도를 나타냈다. 4R의 항목별로 가장 큰 영향을 미친 세부 지표의 경우 내구성은 하천제방 정비, 신속성은 보건의료서비스, 자원동원력은 지방자치단체 재정자립도, 가외성은 배수시설로 나타났다. 본 연구는 특별재난지역을 대상으로 회복력에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석함으로써 국가에서 홍수의 예방 및 대응을 전략적으로 관리할 수 있는 기초를 마련하였다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

Due to climate change with extreme weather events, occurrences of unprecedented heavy rainfall have become more frequent. Since it is difficult to perfectly predict and prevent flood damages, the limitation of traditional prevention-centered approaches has come a issue. The concept of "resilience" has therefore been developed which emphasizes the ability to swiftly recover from damages to previous states or to even better conditions. In this study, we 1) developed a total of 20 domestic flood resilience indicators based on the 4R principles (Redundancy, Robustness, Rapidity, Resourcefulness), 2) conducted applicability evaluations targeting specific disaster-prone areas, and 3) assessed the importance of each indicator through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis with flood-related experts. To confirm the suitability of the developed flood resilience indicators, multicollinearity analysis was performed, and the results indicated that all 20 indicators had tolerance limits above 0.1 and Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) below 10, demonstrating suitability as factors. Furthermore, evaluations of proposed indicators were carried out targeting disaster-prone areas in 2022(21 areas), and AHP analysis was utilized to determine the relative importance of each indicator. The analysis revealed that the importance of each indicator was as follows: Robustness 0.46, Rapidity 0.22, Redundancy 0.17, and Resourcefulness 0.16, with Robustness exhibiting the highest importance. Regarding the sub-indicators that had the greatest influence on each 4R component, river embankment maintenance emerged as the most influential for Robustness, healthcare services for Rapidity, fiscal autonomy of local governments for Resourcefulness, and drainage facilities for Redundancy.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 한국환경연구원의 A Study on Examining Flood Resilience in Asia and Developing Assessment Indicators of South Korea (아시아 지역 홍수회복력 분석 및 국내 평가지표개발 연구)(RR2023-02) 과제와 환경부 한국환경산업기술원의 수생태계 건강성 확보 기술개발사업(RS-2022-KE002214) 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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