KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Trend Analyses of Monthly Precipitation in Jeolla According to Climate Change Scenarios Using an Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis

혁신적 다각 경향성 분석을 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 전라도 월 강수량의 경향성 분석

  • Hong, Dahee (Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Soukwoo (Hanyang University) ;
  • Cho, Hyeonseon (Hanyang University) ;
  • Yoo, Jiyoung (SooILEngineering Co) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Hanyang University (ERICA))
  • 홍다희 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김석우 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 조현선 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 유지영 (수일엔지니어링) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2024.01.04
  • Accepted : 2024.03.07
  • Published : 2024.06.01
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Abstract

Precipitation is a crucial meteorological variable widely used as essential input data in most hydrological models. However, due to climate change, there is an escalating precipitation variability. Trend analysis plays an important role in planning and operating water resources systems. As recently developed, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) is useful in identifying and and analyzing the trends of hydrologic variables. In this study, the IPTA was applied to monthly precipitation data obtained from 13 meteorological observatories in Jeolla province, along with synthesized precipitation data according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The trend results were compared those obtained from the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimation which are generally used in practice. The results revealed monthly precipitations from February to July and November had increasing trends, and monthly precipitation in October had a decreasing trend. IPTA, Mann-Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimation detected trends in 75.00 %, 5.13 %, and 5.13 % of 156(13 stations × 12 months) time series of monthly precipitation, respectively, which indicates that the IPTA is more sensitive in trend detection compared to the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimation.

대부분의 수문모형에서 입력자료로 쓰이는 중요한 기상자료인 강우량의 변동성이 기후변화로 인해 커지고 있다. 수문변량의 변동성 분석은 수자원의 계획 및 운영에 매우 중요하다. 비교적 최근에 개발된 혁신적 다각 경향성 분석(IPTA)은 수문변량 등의 변동성을 분석하여 경향성을 확인하는데 유용하다. 본 연구에서는 전라도에 위치한 13개 기상관측소의 관측 강우량 자료 및 공통 사회경제 경로(SSP) 시나리오에 따른 강수량 자료에 대해 IPTA를 수행하여 월 강우량의 경향성을 분석하였고, 현재 실무에서 활용되는 Mann-Kendall 검정과 Sen's slope 추정 결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과, 대부분의 지점에서 2월부터 7월까지 그리고 11월의 강수량은 증가 경향을 보이고, 10월의 강수량은 감소 경향이 나타났다. 월 강수량에 대해 IPTA와 Mann-Kendall 검정 및 Sen's slope 추정은 156(13개 관측소 × 12개월) 시계열 중에서 각각 75.00 %, 5.13 %, 5.13 % 의 경향성을 감지하여, 상대적으로 IPTA가 경향성 감지에 더 민감하다는 것을 보여주었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by a grant(2022-MOIS63-001(RS-2022-ND641011)) of Cooperative Research Method and Safety Management Technology in National Disaster funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea).

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