KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE (한국작물학회지)

The Korean Society of Crop Science (한국작물학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Relationship between Rice Yield in South Korea and El Niño Events that Occurred During the Rice Growing Season

벼 작기중 발생한 El Niño와 국내 벼 작황과의 관계

  • Hyeon-Seok Lee (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Seo-Yeong Yang (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Jae-kyeong Baek (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Yeong-Seo Song (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Ju-Hee Kim (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • So-Hye Cho (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Ji-Young Shon (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Jae-Ki Chnag (Crop Production & Physiology Division, NICS, RDA) ;
  • Junhwan Kim (Korea National University of Agriculture and Fisheries)
  • 이현석 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 양서영 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 백재경 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 송영서 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 김주희 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 조소혜 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 손지영 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 장재기 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 작물재배생리과) ;
  • 김준환 (국립한국농수산대학교 작물산림학부)
  • Received : 2024.02.19
  • Accepted : 2024.04.18
  • Published : 2024.06.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We investigated the impact of El Niño during the rice-growing season on rice yield by analyzing the correlation between detrended rice yield data and ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) values exceeding 0.5. The results show a positive correlation between ONI intensities and detrended rice yields. Furthermore, we found that variations in sunshine duration, precipitation, and typhoon activity affect detrended yield values positively and negatively. This pattern was similar to the classification of El Niño into Cold Tongue El Niño and non-Cold Tongue El Niño, which showed positive and negative detrended rice yield values, respectively. This observation suggests that predicting yield based on ONI intensity during Cold Tongue El Niño years may be feasible to some extent.

1. 2015년 이후 가장 강한 El Niño가 2023년 발생하여 El Niño가 농업부분에 미치는 영향에 대해서 관심이 높아지고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 쌀 수량에 미치는 영향을 다시 검토할 필요가 있다. 벼의 작기중에 발생한El Niño가 쌀 수량의 증감에 영향을 주는지 규명하기 위해, 추세가 제거된 쌀 수량 자료와 벼 작기중ONI 값이 0.5이상으로 유지된 연도의 자료를 이용하여 이들의 관계를 조사하였다. 그 결과 ONI 강도가 높을수록 추세가 제거된 쌀 수량이 높게 나오는 경향을 확인하였다. 2. 또한 추세 제거 쌀 수량 지수가 양의 값으로 나오는 연도와 음의 값으로 나오는 연도에는 여름 및 가을의 일조시간 및 강수량이 다를 뿐만 아니라 태풍의 영향이 다르다는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 El Niño를 Cold tongue El Niño인 경우와 그렇지 않은 경우로 분류할 때와 유사하였다. Cold tongue El Niño인 경우에는 추세 제거 수량이 양의 값을 보였으며, Cold tongue El Niño이 아닌 경우에는 모두 음의 값을 보였다. 이를 활용하여 Cold tongue인 해에 ONI강도에 따라 수량의 변화를 일정수준 예측이 가능할 것으로 보인다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 농촌진흥청 연구사업(세부과제명: 주요 식량작물(벼, 맥류)의 국내 생산량 예측을 위한 모델 개발, 과제번호: PJ016018012023)의 지원에 의해 이루어진 결과의 일부이며 연구사업 수행에 협조해 주신 모든 분들에게 감사드립니다.

References

  1. Barrios-Perez, C., K. Okada, G. G. Varon, J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. C. Rebolledo, and S. D. Prager. 2021. How does El Nino Southern Oscillation affect rice-producing environments in central Colombia?. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 306 : 108443.
  2. Deng, X., J. Huang, F. Qiao, R. L. Naylor, W. P. Falcon, M. Burke, S. Rozelle, and D. Battisti. 2010. Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China's rice production. Journal of Geographical Sciences 20 : 3-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-010-0003-6
  3. Kim, J. S., J. S., Kug, S.W., Yeh, H. J., Kim, and E. H., Park. 2014. Relation between climate variability in korea and two types of El Nino, and their sensitivity to definition of two types of El Nino. Atmosphere 24(1) : 89-99. https://doi.org/10.14191/ATMOS.2014.24.1.089
  4. Kim, J., J. Lee, W. Sang, P. Shin, H. Cho, and M. Seo. 2019. Rice yield prediction in South Korea by using random forest. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 21(2) : 75-84. https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2019.21.2.75
  5. Kim, J., W. Sang, P. Shin, H. Cho, M. Seo. 2017. A Meteorological Analysis on High Rice Yield in 2015 in South Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 19(2) : 54-61. https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2017.19.2.54
  6. Kug, J.-S., M.-S. Ahn, M.-K. Sung, S.-W. Yeh, H.-S. Min, and Y.-H. Ki. 2010. Statistical Relationship between Two Types of El Nino Events and Climate Variation over the Korean Peninsula. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmosphere Science 46(4) : 467-474. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0027-y
  7. Kug, J.-S., F.-F. Jin, and S.-I. An. 2009. Two-types of El Nino events: Cold tongue El Nino and warm pool El Nino. Journal of Climate 22(6) : 1499-1515. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1
  8. Ministry of Construction. 1972. Floods in Korea, pp. 322-329.
  9. Ministry of Construction. 1982. Disaster Yearbook, 358p.
  10. Ministry of Construction. 1987. Disaster Yearbook, 650p.
  11. Ministry of the Interior. 1991. Central Disaster Response Headquarters, 398p.
  12. Ministry of Public Administration and Security Central Disaster Response Headquarters. 1997. Disaster Yearbook, 358p.
  13. Ministry of Public Administration and Security Central Disaster Response Headquarters. 2002. Disaster Yearbook, 199p.
  14. Ministry of Public Safety and Security, 2014: Disaster Yearbook, pp. 548-551.
  15. Ministry of Public Safety and Security. 2015. Disaster Yearbook, 129p.
  16. Naylor, R. L., W. P. Falcon, D. Rochberg, and N. Wada. 2001. Using El Nino/Southern Oscillation climate data to predict rice production in Indonesia. Climatic Change 50 : 255-265. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010662115348
  17. Rural Development Administration, 2022: (Summer Crops) New Variety Development Joint Research Report New Variety Development, Crop Yield, New Variety Promotion. pp. 229-238.
  18. Rural Development Administration Agricultural Observatory Center. 2023. Agricultural Observation Information Rice December Issue, https://www.krei.re.kr/krei/selectAgrObserveList.do?key=80. Accessed 18 December 2023.
  19. Shim, G., M. Jung, Y. Kim, I. Choi, H. Kim, and K. Kang. 2016. Some Meteorological Anomalies and their Relationships with Rice Yield for El Nino Years in South Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 18(3) : 143-150. https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2016.18.3.143
  20. Trenberth, K. E. 1997. The definition of el nino. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(12) : 2771-2778. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2
  21. Venables, W. N., D. M. Smith, the R Core Team. 2022. An Introduction to R Notes on R: A Programming Environment for Data Analysis and Graphics Version 4.2.1 (2022-06-23).
  22. Xie, R. and X. Fang. 2020. The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments. Science China Earth Sciences 63(5) : 626-633. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2
  23. Zubair, L. 2002. El Nino-southern oscillation influences on rice production in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Climatology 22(2) : 249-260. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.714