Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Predictive analysis of minimum inflow using synthetic inflow in reservoir management: a case study of Seomjingang Dam

자료 발생 기법을 활용한 저수지 최소유입량 예측 기법 개발 : 섬진강댐을 대상으로

  • Lee, Chulhee (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Lee, Seonmi (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Lee, Eunkyung (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Ji, Jungwon (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Yoon, Jeongin (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Yi, Jaeeung (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University)
  • 이철희 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 이선미 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 이은경 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 지정원 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 윤정인 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 이재응 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2024.01.22
  • Accepted : 2024.04.15
  • Published : 2024.05.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Climate change has been intensifying drought frequency and severity. Such prolonged droughts reduce reservoir levels, thereby exacerbating drought impacts. While previous studies have focused on optimizing reservoir operations using historical data to mitigate these impacts, their scope is limited to analyzing past events, highlighting the need for predictive methods for future droughts. This research introduces a novel approach for predicting minimum inflow at the Seomjingang dam which has experienced significant droughts. This study utilized the Stochastic Analysis Modeling and Simulation (SAMS) 2007 to generate inflow sequences for the same period of observed inflow. Then we simulate reservoir operations to assess firm yield and predict minimum inflow through synthetic inflow analysis. Minimum inflow is defined as the inflow where firm yield is less than 95% of the synthetic inflow in many sequences during periods matching observed inflow. The results for each case indicated the firm yield for the minimum inflow is on average 9.44 m3/s, approximately 1.07 m3/s lower than the observed inflow's firm yield of 10.51 m3/s. The minimum inflow estimation can inform reservoir operation standards, facilitate multi-reservoir system reviews, and assess supplementary capabilities. Estimating minimum inflow emerges as an effective strategy for enhancing water supply reliability and mitigating shortages.

최근 국내에서는 이상기후로 인해 가뭄의 빈도 및 심도가 증가하고 있으며 장기간의 가뭄으로 인한 저수지의 저수량 감소로 전국적인 가뭄 피해가 발생하였다. 가뭄 기간 동안의 피해를 최소화하기 위해 관측자료를 이용한 최적의 저수지 운영 방법을 제안하는 다양한 연구가 수행되었지만, 실측 자료만을 활용할 경우 과거 가뭄 사상에 대해서만 분석이 가능하기 때문에 미래에 발생할 수 있는 극심한 가뭄을 예측하고 분석하기 위한 기술이 필요한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 최근 가뭄피해가 발생한 섬진강 유역에 위치한 섬진강댐을 대상으로 최소유입량 예측 기법을 제시하였다. 수문 분석 모형인 Stochastic Analysis Modeling and Simulation (SAMS) 2007을 이용하여 섬진강댐의 관측자료와 통계적 특성이 유사한 동일한 길이의 유입량을 다수 발생시키고, 저수지 모의운영에 따른 보장공급량 산정 결과를 활용하여 최소유입량을 예측하였다. 본 연구에서는 최소유입량을 대상 저수지의 관측자료와 동일한 기간을 갖는 다수의 발생유입량 중 보장공급량을 기준으로 95%는 이보다 작지 않은 값을 갖는 유입량으로 정의하였다. Case별 저수지 모의운영 분석 결과 섬진강댐 최소유입량의 보장공급량은 관측자료의 보장공급량인 10.51 m3/s 대비 평균 1.07 m3/s 낮게 분석되었다. 본 연구에서 산정한 최소유입량은 가뭄 시 저수지 운영 기준을 마련하는데 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단되며 최소유입량을 활용하여 댐 연계운영, 추가 확보 가능한 용수공급량 등을 검토할 수 있다. 이는 가뭄 시 용수공급 안정성 확보 및 하류 물부족 문제 해소 등을 위한 대안 마련 시 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 결과물은 환경부의 재원으로 한국환경산업기술원의 가뭄대응 물관리 혁신기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다.(2022003610004)

References

  1. Anongrit, K.R., Anujit, P.P., and Witsanukorn, C.P. (2008). "Stochastic inflow simulation for searching rule curves." American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 221-226. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2008.221.226
  2. Anthony, J.H. (2002). Probability and statistics for engineers and scientists. Thomson Learning, Duxbury, MA, U.S., pp. 432-441.
  3. Basawa, I.V., and Robert, L. (2002). "Large sample properties of parameter estimates for periodic ARMA Models." Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 651-663. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00246
  4. Choi, S.J., Lee, D.R., and Moon, J.W. (2014) "Comparison of water supply reliability by dam operation methods." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 523-536. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.6.523
  5. Jin, Y.K., Jung, T.H., Lee, S.H., and Kang, S.U. (2016). "Reservoir operations of Hapcheon Dam applying a discrete hedging rule and ensemble streamflow prediction to cope with droughts." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 93-101. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2016.16.1.93
  6. Jin, Y.K., Lee, S.H., and Jung, T.H. (2017). "Reservoir operations applying discrete hedging rule curves depending on current storage to cope with droughts." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 107-115. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2017.17.1.107
  7. Kim, B.S., Oh, D.K., and Jeong, W.S. (2009). "Comparison of the means of two samples from independent normal populations with unknown variances." Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 1079-1089.
  8. Kim, H.S., Kim, H.S., Jeon, G.I., and Gang, S.U. (2016a). "Assessment of 2014~2015 Drought." Water for Future, Vol. 49, No. 7, pp. 61-75.
  9. Kim, J.Y., Park, M.K., Lee, G.H., and Jung, G.S. (2014). "Development and assessment of hedging rule for Han River reservoir system operation against severe drought." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 47, No. 10, pp. 891-906. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.10.891
  10. Kim, S.H., Nam, W.S., and Bae, D.H. (2019). "An analysis of effects of seasonal weather forecasting on dam reservoir inflow prediction" Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 52, No. 7, pp. 451-461. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.7.451
  11. Kim, T.J., So, B.J., Ryou, M.S., and Kwon, H.H. (2016b). "Development of dam inflow simulation technique coupled with rainfall simulation and rainfall-runoff model." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 315-325. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.315
  12. K-water (2018). 2013~2018 sustained drought analysis & assessment report. pp. 3-42.
  13. Lee, C.C., Jang, S.H., and Lee, C.H. (2008) "A study on the effective operating system for water supply of Andong Dam considering the flow of Nak-dong River" Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 8, No. 6, pp. 129-136.
  14. Lee, D.H., Choi, C.W., Yu, M.S., and Yi, J.E. (2012a). "Reevaluation of multi-purpose reservoir yield." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 361-371. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.4.361
  15. Lee, D.H., Kim, H.S., Jung, I.W., and Yoon, J.Y. (2020). "Monthly reservoir inflow forecasting for dry period using teleconnectio n indices: A statistical ensemble approach." Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 10, pp. 1-21.
  16. Lee, S.D., Kim, J.G., and Kim, S.W. (2012b). "Estimation of layered periodic autoregressive moving average models." Journal of The Korean Statistical Society Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 507-516. https://doi.org/10.5351/CKSS.2012.19.3.507
  17. Lee, S.H., and Kang, T.U. (2006). "An evaluation method of water supply reliability for a dam by firm yield analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 467-478. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.5.467
  18. Ministry of Environment (ME) (2023). Integrated water manegement plan for Yeongsan River, Seomjin River and Jeju. [2021-2030]. pp. 3-29.
  19. Ministry of Environment (ME) and K-water (2023). Drought analysis for Yeongsan River and Seomjin River 2022-2023, pp. 14-143.
  20. Park, J.H., and Kim, Y.O. (2013). "Coping with climage change through coordinated operations of the Andong & Imha Dams." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 46, No. 12, pp. 1141-1155. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.12.1141
  21. Ryu, G.H., Chung, G.H., Lee, J.H., and Kim, J.H. (2009). "Optimization of multi-reservoir operation with a hedging rule: Case study of the Han River basin." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 42, No. 8, pp. 643-657. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.8.643
  22. Seo, H.D., Jeong, S.M., Kim, S.J., and Lee, J.H. (2008). "A study on the optimal water supply using virtual drought exercise with hydrological drought index." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, Vol. 41, No. 10, pp. 1045-1058. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.10.1045
  23. Sveinsson, O.G.B., Salas, J.D., Lane, W.L., and Frevert, D.K. (2007). Stochastic Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (SAMS) version 2007 user's manual. Technical Report No. 11, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, U.S., pp. 1-33.
  24. Thatkiat, M., Yasuto, T., Yutaka, I., and Kazuaki, Y. (2021). "Real-time optimization of a large-scale reservoir operation in Thailand using adaptive inflow prediction with medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts." Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol. 38, pp. 1-17.
  25. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) (2021). Methods for Storage/Yield Analysis. No. 2021-9, CECW-EC, Washington, DC, U.S., pp. 45-57.
  26. Yonas, G.T., Mark, M.M., and Paul, L.A. (2006). "Identification of periodic autoregressive movingaverage models and their application to the modeling of river flows" Journal of Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 1-11.